The usefulness of the U.S. decennial census depends critically on the accuracy with which individual people are counted in specific housing units, at precise geographic locations. The 2000 and other recent censuses have relied on a set of residence rules to craft instructions on the census questionnaire in order to guide respondents to identify their correct "usual residence." Determining the proper place to count such groups as college students, prisoners, and military personnel has always been complicated and controversial; major societal trends such as placement of children in shared custody arrangements and the prevalence of "snowbird" and "sunbird" populations who regularly move to favorable climates further make it difficult to specify ties to one household and one place. Once, Only Once, and in the Right Place reviews the evolution of current residence rules and the way residence concepts are presented to respondents. It proposes major changes to the basic approach of collecting residence information and suggests a program of research to improve the 2010 and future censuses.
The usefulness of the U.S. decennial census depends critically on the accuracy with which individual people are counted in specific housing units, at precise geographic locations. The 2000 and other recent censuses have relied on a set of residence rules to craft instructions on the census questionnaire in order to guide respondents to identify their correct "usual residence." Determining the proper place to count such groups as college students, prisoners, and military personnel has always been complicated and controversial; major societal trends such as placement of children in shared custody arrangements and the prevalence of "snowbird" and "sunbird" populations who regularly move to favorable climates further make it difficult to specify ties to one household and one place. Once, Only Once, and in the Right Place reviews the evolution of current residence rules and the way residence concepts are presented to respondents. It proposes major changes to the basic approach of collecting residence information and suggests a program of research to improve the 2010 and future censuses.
Planning for the 2020 census is already beginning. This book from the National Research Council examines several aspects of census planning, including questionnaire design, address updating, non-response follow-up, coverage follow-up, de-duplication of housing units and residents, editing and imputation procedures, and several other census operations. This book recommends that the Census Bureau overhaul its approach to research and development. The report urges the Bureau to set cost and quality goals for the 2020 and future censuses, improving efficiency by taking advantage of new technologies.
For the past 50 years, the Census Bureau has conducted experiments and evaluations with every decennial census involving field data collection during which alternatives to current census processes are assessed for a subset of the population. An "evaluation" is usually a post hoc analysis of data collected as part of the decennial census processing to determine whether individual steps in the census operated as expected. The 2010 Program for Evaluations and Experiments, known as CPEX, has enormous potential to reduce costs and increase effectiveness of the 2020 census by reducing the initial list of potential research topics from 52 to 6. The panel identified three priority experiments for inclusion in the 2010 census to assist 2020 census planning: (1) an experiment on the use of the Internet for data collection; (2) an experiment on the use of administrative records for various census purposes; and (3) an experiment (or set of experiments) on features of the census questionnaire. They also came up with 11 recommendations to improve efficiency and quality of data collection including allowing use of the Internet for data submission and including one or more alternate questionnaire experiments to examine things such as the representation of race and ethnicity.
In the early 1990s, the Census Bureau proposed a program of continuous measurement as a possible alternative to the gathering of detailed social, economic, and housing data from a sample of the U.S. population as part of the decennial census. The American Community Survey (ACS) became a reality in 2005, and has included group quarters (GQ)-such places as correctional facilities for adults, student housing, nursing facilities, inpatient hospice facilities, and military barracks-since 2006, primarily to more closely replicate the design and data products of the census long-form sample. The decision to include group quarters in the ACS enables the Census Bureau to provide a comprehensive benchmark of the total U.S. population (not just those living in households). However, the fact that the ACS must rely on a sample of what is a small and very diverse population, combined with limited funding available for survey operations, makes the ACS GQ sampling, data collection, weighting, and estimation procedures more complex and the estimates more susceptible to problems stemming from these limitations. The concerns are magnified in small areas, particularly in terms of detrimental effects on the total population estimates produced for small areas. Small Populations, Large Effects provides an in-depth review of the statistical methodology for measuring the GQ population in the ACS. This report addresses difficulties associated with measuring the GQ population and the rationale for including GQs in the ACS. Considering user needs for ACS data and of operational feasibility and compatibility with the treatment of the household population in the ACS, the report recommends alternatives to the survey design and other methodological features that can make the ACS more useful for users of small-area data.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the U.S. Department of Justice is one of the smallest of the U.S. principal statistical agencies but shoulders one of the most expansive and detailed legal mandates among those agencies. Ensuring the Quality, Credibility, and Relevance of U.S. Justice Statistics examines the full range of BJS programs and suggests priorities for data collection. BJS's data collection portfolio is a solid body of work, well justified by public information needs or legal requirements and a commendable effort to meet its broad mandate given less-than-commensurate fiscal resources. The book identifies some major gaps in the substantive coverage of BJS data, but notes that filling those gaps would require increased and sustained support in terms of staff and fiscal resources. In suggesting strategic goals for BJS, the book argues that the bureau's foremost goal should be to establish and maintain a strong position of independence. To avoid structural or political interference in BJS work, the report suggests changing the administrative placement of BJS within the Justice Department and making the BJS directorship a fixed-term appointment. In its thirtieth year, BJS can look back on a solid body of accomplishment; this book suggests further directions for improvement to give the nation the justice statistics-and the BJS-that it deserves.
At the request of the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Research Council's Committee on National Statistics established the Panel on Research on Future Census Methods to review the early planning process for the 2010 census. This new report documents the panel's strong support for the major aims of the Census Bureau's emerging plan for 2010. At the same time, it notes the considerable challenges that must be overcome if the bureau's innovations are to be successful. The panel agrees with the Census Bureau that implementation of the American Community Survey and, with it, the separation of the long form from the census process are excellent concepts. Moreover, it concurs that the critically important Master Address File and TIGER geographic systems are in dire need of comprehensive updating and that new technologies have the potential to improve the accuracy of the count. The report identifies the risks and rewards of these and other components of the Census Bureau's plan. The report emphasizes the need for the bureau to link its research and evaluation efforts much more closely to operational planning and the importance of funding for a comprehensive and rigorous testing program before 2010.
The census coverage measurement programs have historically addressed three primary objectives: (1) to inform users about the quality of the census counts; (2) to help identify sources of error to improve census taking, and (3) to provide alternative counts based on information from the coverage measurement program. In planning the 1990 and 2000 censuses, the main objective was to produce alternative counts based on the measurement of net coverage error. For the 2010 census coverage measurement program, the Census Bureau will deemphasize that goal, and is instead planning to focus on the second goal of improving census processes. This book, which details the findings of the National Research Council's Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias, strongly supports the Census Bureau's change in goal. However, the panel finds that the current plans for data collection, data analysis, and data products are still too oriented towards measurement of net coverage error to fully exploit this new focus. Although the Census Bureau has taken several important steps to revise data collection and analysis procedures and data products, this book recommends further steps to enhance the value of coverage measurement for the improvement of future census processes.
As the United States continues to be a nation of immigrants and their children, the nation's school systems face increased enrollments of students whose primary language is not English. With the 2001 reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA) in the No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB), the allocation of federal funds for programs to assist these students to be proficient in English became formula-based: 80 percent on the basis of the population of children with limited English proficiency1 and 20 percent on the basis of the population of recently immigrated children and youth. Title III of NCLB directs the U.S. Department of Education to allocate funds on the basis of the more accurate of two allowable data sources: the number of students reported to the federal government by each state education agency or data from the American Community Survey (ACS). The department determined that the ACS estimates are more accurate, and since 2005, those data have been basis for the federal distribution of Title III funds. Subsequently, analyses of the two data sources have raised concerns about that decision, especially because the two allowable data sources would allocate quite different amounts to the states. In addition, while shortcomings were noted in the data provided by the states, the ACS estimates were shown to fluctuate between years, causing concern among the states about the unpredictability and unevenness of program funding. In this context, the U.S. Department of Education commissioned the National Research Council to address the accuracy of the estimates from the two data sources and the factors that influence the estimates. The resulting book also considers means of increasing the accuracy of the data sources or alternative data sources that could be used for allocation purposes.
This final report of the Panel on Alternative Census Methodologies provides an assessment of the Census Bureau's plans for the 2000 census as of the time of the 1998 census dress rehearsal. It examines changes in census plans following, and to a modest extent in reaction to, the panel's second interim report, regarding the use of sampling for nonresponse follow-up, construction of the master address file, use of multiple response modes and respondent-friendly questionnaires, and the use of administrative records. It also describes evaluation plans for the census dress rehearsal and plans for data collection and experimentation during the 2000 census. Most of the results from the dress rehearsal were not yet available to the panel, so this report does not offer any suggested changes to 2000 census plans in response to the dress rehearsal.
This volume examines the Census Bureau's program of research and development of the 2000 census, focusing particularly on the design of the 1995 census tests. The tests in 1995 should serve as a prime source of information about the effectiveness and cost of alternative census design components. The authors concentrate on those aspects of census methodology that have the greatest impact on two chief objectives of census redesign: reducing differential undercount and controlling costs. Primary attention is given to processes for data collection, the quality of population coverage and public response, and the use of sampling and statistical estimation.
The diverse research on the patterns and characteristics of violent behavior in the United States is assessed by a panel of experts in this monograph. The monograph describes what is known about certain types of violence, details insights into risk factors for violence in individuals and situations, and recommends new research efforts with short- and long-term outcomes. Part I focuses on violent human behavior. It includes chapters on the diversity of violent human behavior and patterns of violence in American society. Part II focuses on understanding violence. It includes chapters on the perspectives on violence; alcohol, other psychoactive drugs, and violence; violence in families; and firearms and violence. Part III focuses on harnessing understanding to improve control. It includes chapters on expanding the limits of understanding and control and recommendations for understanding and controlling violent human behavior. References are included with each chapter. Tables, graphs, and references are included throughout the monograph. The appendices include articles on the development of an individual potential for violence and measuring and counting violent crimes and their consequences. Biographies of members of the panel of experts are included. (ABL)
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