Panel on Modeling and Simulation's Books

Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.

The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It considers in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks; global and regional climate modelling; advances in methods of analyses; and insights from climate services. It assesses the current state of the climate; human influence on climate in all regions; future climate change including sea level rise; global warming effects including extremes; climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation; limiting climate change by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits for air quality. The report serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with the latest policy-relevant information on climate change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

The Climate Change 2007 volumes of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provide the most comprehensive and balanced assessment of climate change available. This IPCC Working Group I report brings us completely up-to-date on the full range of scientific aspects of climate change. Written by the world's leading experts, the IPCC volumes will again prove to be invaluable for researchers, students, and policymakers, and will form the standard reference works for policy decisions for government and industry worldwide.

During the past decade, scientists have learned much about the complex natural processes that influence climate variability and change, and our ability to model climate has increased significantly. We also have begun to better identify those parts of the climate system that are particularly important and not well understood and that therefore limit our ability to project the future evolution of Earth's climate. One of these critical areas is our understanding of the role of feedbacks in the climate system and their role in determining climate sensitivity. Feedbacks are processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the system's response to changed forcings. This study looks at what is known and not known about climate change feedbacks and seeks to identify the feedback processes most in need of improved understanding. It identifies key observations needed to monitor and understand climate feedbacks, discusses ways to evaluate progress in understanding climate feedbacks, recommends ways to improve climate modeling and analysis for climate feedbacks research, and identifies priority areas for research.

Climatic changes, air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions.

This Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology and atmospheric chemistry. It provides invaluable material for decision makers and stakeholders at international, national and local level, in government, businesses, and NGOs. This volume provides: • An authoritative and unbiased overview of the physical science basis of climate change • A more extensive assessment of changes observed throughout the climate system than ever before • New dedicated chapters on sea-level change, biogeochemical cycles, clouds and aerosols, and regional climate phenomena • Extensive coverage of model projections, both near-term and long-term climate projections • A detailed assessment of climate change observations, modelling, and attribution for every continent • A new comprehensive atlas of global and regional climate projections for 35 regions of the world

For every weapons system being developed, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) must make a critical decision: Should the system go forward to full-scale production? The answer to that question may involve not only tens of billions of dollars but also the nation's security and military capabilities. In the milestone process used by DOD to answer the basic acquisition question, one component near the end of the process is operational testing, to determine if a system meets the requirements for effectiveness and suitability in realistic battlefield settings. Problems discovered at this stage can cause significant production delays and can necessitate costly system redesign. This book examines the milestone process, as well as the DOD's entire approach to testing and evaluating defense systems. It brings to the topic of defense acquisition the application of scientific statistical principles and practices.

An essential reference and companion to the 1990 IPCC Report on Climate Change.

The report also provides a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by UNEP and the World Meteorological Organisation in 1988 to provide periodic scientific analysis of the causes, impacts and possible policy response options to climate change issues. This synthesis report is the 4th and final part of the IPCC's third assessment report, and contains information on nine policy-relevant questions regarding the IPCC's 2001 assessment. It is intended to assist governments, individually and collectively, to formulate appropriate adaptation and mitigation responses to the threat of human-induced climate change.

This volume, second in the series, provides essential background material for policy analysts, researchers, statisticians, and others interested in the application of microsimulation techniques to develop estimates of the costs and population impacts of proposed changes in government policies ranging from welfare to retirement income to health care to taxes. The material spans data inputs to models, design and computer implementation of models, validation of model outputs, and model documentation.

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation modelsâ€"large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes. Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses. The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.

The transportation sector cannot continue on its current path: The volatility of oil prices threatens the U.S. economy, the large proportion of oil importation threatens U.S. energy security, and the massive contribution of greenhouse gases threatens the environment. The development of domestic sources of alternative transportation fuels with lower greenhouse emissions is now a national imperative. Coal and biomass are in abundant supply in the United States and can be converted to liquid fuels that can be combusted in existing and future vehicles. Their abundant supply makes them attractive candidates to provide non-oil-based liquid fuels to the U.S. transportation system. However, there are important questions about the economic viability, carbon impact, and technology status of these options. Liquid Transportation Fuels from Coal and Biomass provides a snapshot of the potential costs of liquid fuels from biomass by biochemical conversion and from biomass and coal by thermochemical conversion. Policy makers, investors, leaders in industry, the transportation sector, and others with a concern for the environment, economy, and energy security will look to this book as a roadmap to independence from foreign oil. With immediate action and sustained effort, alternative liquid fuels can be available in the 2020 time frame, if or when the nation needs them.

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students, researchers and policy makers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology, atmospheric chemistry and environmental policy.

What can we expect as global change progresses? Will there be thresholds that trigger sudden shifts in environmental conditions--or that cause catastrophic destruction of life? Effects of Past Global Change on Life explores what earth scientists are learning about the impact of large-scale environmental changes on ancient life--and how these findings may help us resolve today's environmental controversies. Leading authorities discuss historical climate trends and what can be learned from the mass extinctions and other critical periods about the rise and fall of plant and animal species in response to global change. The volume develops a picture of how environmental change has closed some evolutionary doors while opening others--including profound effects on the early members of the human family. An expert panel offers specific recommendations on expanding research and improving investigative tools--and targets historical periods and geological and biological patterns with the most promise of shedding light on future developments. This readable and informative book will be of special interest to professionals in the earth sciences and the environmental community as well as concerned policymakers.

What can we expect as global change progresses? Will there be thresholds that trigger sudden shifts in environmental conditionsâ€"or that cause catastrophic destruction of life? Effects of Past Global Change on Life explores what earth scientists are learning about the impact of large-scale environmental changes on ancient lifeâ€"and how these findings may help us resolve today's environmental controversies. Leading authorities discuss historical climate trends and what can be learned from the mass extinctions and other critical periods about the rise and fall of plant and animal species in response to global change. The volume develops a picture of how environmental change has closed some evolutionary doors while opening othersâ€"including profound effects on the early members of the human family. An expert panel offers specific recommendations on expanding research and improving investigative toolsâ€"and targets historical periods and geological and biological patterns with the most promise of shedding light on future developments. This readable and informative book will be of special interest to professionals in the earth sciences and the environmental community as well as concerned policymakers.

This book describes and evaluates existing models of human performance and their use in the design and evaluation of new human-technology systems. Its primary focus is on the modeling of system operators who perform supervisory and manual control tasks. After an introduction on human performance modeling, the book describes information processing, control theory, task network, and knowledge-based models. It explains models of human performance in aircraft operations, nuclear power plant control, maintenance, and the supervisory control of process control systems, such as oil refineries. The book concludes with a discussion of model parameterization and validation and recommends a number of lines of research needed to strengthen model development and application.

Book's by Panel on Modeling and Simulation

Username

Password

Password again

Birthday

Email