This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s economic growth momentum has improved since late 2016, supported by a recovery in global electronics trade. Real GDP grew by 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017 (year-over-year). However, the recovery has not yet been broad based and private domestic demand, particularly private investment, remains subdued. Labor market conditions have softened with two consecutive years of weak net employment generation. Singapore’s growth is projected in a 2.5–3 percent range over the medium term, with the growth rates rising as improvements in productivity take hold. In the near term, real GDP will grow by about 2.25 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2018.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes factors that could bring inflation back to target in Thailand. The paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve with time varying parameters to gauge the quantitative role of (long-term) inflation trends, economic slack, and import price inflation in shaping inflation dynamics. The analysis reveals some important changes in Thailand’s inflation dynamics. It suggests that the impact of lower import prices was a major factor behind the decline in headline inflation in 2015, with low oil prices the largest contributor to inflation dynamics. Monetary policy easing, within a broader expansionary policy mix, should help bring inflation back to target.
Successful containment of COVID-19 and strong policy support have helped contain the health and economic fallout, and a strong recovery is underway. Growth in 2020 reached 2.9 percent, among the highest in the world. However, labor market conditions remain weak. Corporate balance sheets have worsened, potentially hampering private investment and job prospects. Banks entered the crisis in a stronger position than in previous years, but weaknesses remain. Vietnam’s economy remains heavily reliant on external trade and is vulnerable to trade tensions.
Thailand’s economy is recovering from an unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ample policy space has allowed a swift and bold policy response and vaccine rollout has accelerated. However, the recovery is weak and uneven across sectors, with inflation rapidly rising driven by energy prices. Downside risks dominate the outlook, sharpening policy tradeoffs. The pandemic has also brought to the fore the urgency for Thailand to identify new growth drivers to reverse the pre-pandemic trend of declining productivity growth and meet the challenges of the post-pandemic world.
This field manual is an updated edition of the publication 'Protocol for assessment of health facilities responding to emergencies' (1999). It provides a management tool for health professionals evaluating the preparedness of their health facilities for dealing with disasters, and it contains three main sections: a questionnaire presented in a checklist format for capacity assessment; aspects of preparedness relating to structural and non-structural vulnerability, functions and human resources; and preparedness for specific emergencies relating to industrial sectors and contamination, infectious disease outbreaks and biological, chemical and radiological emergencies.
This paper discusses the extent to which the Malaysian economy has been hit by a number of external and domestic shocks since late 2014, including sharply lower energy prices, spillovers from China, capital outflows, and domestic political controversies. The 2016 budget, including January recalibration, reaffirms the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. The current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate in an environment of moderating growth and low inflation. Facing sizeable capital outflows and a sharp fall in oil and commodity prices, exchange rate depreciated substantially. The central bank deployed reserves; the effect on domestic interest rates was modest. Credit growth has moderated, a welcome development after several years of double-digit growth.
This supplement presents the analytical frameworks underlying the IMF’s staff’s enhanced policy analysis and advice to resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The proposed macro-fiscal models, which are applied to selected country or regional cases, are aimed at addressing questions regarding how to deal with resource revenue uncertainty and how to scale up spending within relevant frameworks that ensure fiscal and external sustainability while addressing absorptive capacity constraints. The country applications confirm the importance attached by both IMF staff and country authorities of using the appropriate macro-fiscal frameworks to address the specific challenges faced by RRDCs.
The economy has rebounded from the pandemic-related downturn but is facing new headwinds. The authorities have responded with fiscal policy measures to support vulnerable groups and to mitigate the economic impact of commodity price increases, as well as with front-loaded monetary policy tightening to address elevated inflation. A world class public digital infrastructure is facilitating innovation, productivity improvements and access to services. Further structural reforms, including to address the adverse impact of climate change, are needed to secure strong and sustainable growth.
Growth in the first half of 2018 was softer than in 2017, especially in advanced economies. In contrast, growth remained robust in emerging market economies and broadly in line with expectations. After rising to 6.9 percent in 2017, growth in China continued to be strong into the first half of 2018 but has likely slowed since, given the latest high-frequency indicators, including weakening investment growth. In Japan, after exceeding potential for two years, growth dropped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2018 before rebounding sharply in the second quarter. In India, growth continues to recover steadily after the disruptions related to demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax in the last fiscal year.1 And in ASEAN-4 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand), growth generally lost momentum in the first half of 2018, except in Thailand.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Korea’s growth momentum that had been building since early 2013 has stalled. Average quarterly growth rate declined to about 0.5 percent in the last three quarters of 2014 from about 1 percent in the previous four quarters. A turning point was the April 2014 Sewol ferry accident, which had a surprisingly large and persistent impact on consumer and investor sentiment. Growth is projected to be in a range centered about 3 percent in 2015. The main external risks include slower-than-expected growth in Korea’s main trading partners, the impact of a persistently weak yen on Korean export industries, and side-effects from the global financial conditions.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes how Myanmar can manage its natural resources for people’s development. Myanmar’s natural resource endowments provide much needed national wealth to finance the country’s development. Given Myanmar’s low tax revenue, mobilizing resource revenues is particularly important in the current macroeconomic environment of widening fiscal and current account deficits, inflationary pressures and exchange rate depreciation. The government should consider revising the fiscal regime for natural resources and introducing a resource rent tax to maximize the revenue stream in an efficient way. To better manage the impact of volatile resource revenues on the budget, consideration could be given to anchoring fiscal policy on an expenditure rule over the medium term.
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that stability-oriented macroeconomic policies and progress on structural reforms continue to bear fruit in India. Following disruptions related to the November 2016 currency exchange initiative and the July 2017 goods and services tax rollout, growth slowed to 6.7 percent in FY2017/18, but a recovery is under way led by an investment pickup. Headline inflation averaged 3.6 percent in FY2017/18, a 17-year low, reflecting low food prices on a return to normal monsoon rainfall, agriculture sector reforms, subdued domestic demand, and currency appreciation. Growth is forecast to rise to 7.3 percent in FY2018/19 and 7.5 percent in FY2019/20, on strengthening investment and robust private consumption.
Asia has been hard hit by the global financial crisis. Despite strong fundamentals, its pervasive linkages to the rest of the world have exposed it to the collapse of demand and credit in advanced countries. Exports and industrial production have fallen sharply, capital has started to flow out of the region, and leading indicators suggest further weakness ahead. Against this background, the May 2009 APD REO will discuss the latest developments in Asia, examine the prospects for the period ahead, and consider the policy steps needed to revive economic activity and restore corporate and financial sector health.
Brunei’s economic performance—which was strong before the COVID-19 pandemic—has been buffeted by the health crisis and a pandemic-induced oil and gas price shock. The authorities responded fast and decisively. The number of new infections was quickly suppressed, thanks to a swift public health response, effective health measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Strong fiscal and regulatory policy responses helped sustain production and household income and consumption. Past diversification efforts and reforms bore fruit when it was most needed. As a result, the economy performed strongly in 2020, with real GDP posting positive growth of 1.1 percent—a rare outcome amidst negative growth in the region. Economic activity is projected to strengthen in 2021-22, albeit at varying speeds across sectors, and to continue improving over the medium term on the back of further diversification. The outlook is, however, subject to unusual uncertainty, with significant risks skewed to the downside. Sustained strong policy actions are needed to ensure continued resilience, while nurturing green, digital and inclusive growth.
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