Oya Celasun's Books

Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.Lev Ratnovski,MissRoxana Mihet

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Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.Lev Ratnovski,MissRoxana Mihet

U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475519508

ISBN 13

9781475519501

Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

By: Aqib Aslam,Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Oya Celasun,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Zsoka Koczan

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Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

By: Aqib Aslam,Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Oya Celasun,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Zsoka Koczan

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21⁄4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498338216

ISBN 13

9781498338219

Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.R. Gelos,Mr.Alessandro Prati

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Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.R. Gelos,Mr.Alessandro Prati

Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

145184686X

ISBN 13

9781451846867

An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17

By: Oya Celasun,Jungjin Lee,Mr. Mico Mrkaic,Mr. Allan Timmermann

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An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17

By: Oya Celasun,Jungjin Lee,Mr. Mico Mrkaic,Mr. Allan Timmermann

This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151358717X

ISBN 13

9781513587172

Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

By: Oya Celasun,Francesco Grigoli,Ms.Keiko Honjo,Mr.Javier Kapsoli,Mr.Alexander Klemm,Mr.Bogdan Lissovolik,Jan Luksic,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Joana Pereira,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Baoping Shang,Ms.Yulia Ustyugova

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Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

Latin America’s bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the region have not yet rebuilt their fiscal space, despite buoyant commodity revenues and relatively strong growth in the aftermath of the crisis. Using the experience of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, this paper examines the lessons and legacies of the crisis by addressing the following questions, among others: How much did the 2009 fiscal stimulus help growth? What shortcomings were revealed in the fiscal policy frameworks? What institutional reforms are now needed to provide enduring anchors for fiscal policy? How much rebuilding of buffers is needed going forward?

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475569572

ISBN 13

9781475569575

Turkey at the Crossroads

From Crisis Resolution to EU Accession

By: Mr.Xavier Debrun,Mr.Ashoka Mody,Oya Celasun,Mr.Martin Schindler,Cheng Hoon Lim,Mr.Chris Lane,Mr.Ernesto Ramirez Rigo,Mathew A. Verghis,Mr.Mark E. L. Griffiths,Mr.Mats Josefsson,Mr.Christian Keller,Mr.Christoph Klingen,Mr.Dewitt Marston,Mr.Donal McGettigan,Mr.Reza Moghadam

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Turkey at the Crossroads

From Crisis Resolution to EU Accession

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s policy performance in terms of growth, inflation, debt, fiscal and financial sector reform, and labor markets. The analysis assesses the effectiveness of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms since the crisis and provides guideposts for future policy.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1589063864

ISBN 13

9781589063860

Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Mariano Spector,Jing Zhou

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Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Mariano Spector,Jing Zhou

Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs—such as autos—are harder hit. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched.

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ISBN 13

9798400202476

Cars and the Green Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for European Workers

By: Oya Celasun,Galen Sher,Petia Topalova,Jing Zhou

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Cars and the Green Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for European Workers

By: Oya Celasun,Galen Sher,Petia Topalova,Jing Zhou

Reducing transport sector emissions is an important pillar of the green transition. However, the transition to electric vehicles (EV) portends major changes in vehicle manufacturing activity, on which many livelihoods in Europe depend. Using the heterogeneity across European countries in the speed of transition to EV production and variation in sectoral and regional exposure to the automotive sector, this paper offers early evidence of the labor market implications of the EV transition. Our results suggest that the transformation of the auto sector is already having an adverse impact on employment in the affected sectors and regions, which can be expected to grow at least in the near term. Many of the affected workers will be able to retire and our analysis suggests that those who will have to transition to new “greener” jobs have a fair chance to do so when compared to other workers in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, we find evidence that active labor market policies, specifically training, can help to reduce the adjustment costs for the affected workers.

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ISBN 13

9798400244766

The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery

Uptick or Renaissance?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.Gabriel Di Bella,Tim Mahedy,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou

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The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery

Uptick or Renaissance?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.Gabriel Di Bella,Tim Mahedy,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou

The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the United States and other G-7 countries, and in particular decreasing unit labor costs have had a positive impact on U.S. manufacturing production. While we find it unlikely for manufacturing to become a main engine of growth in the United States, we find that U.S. manufacturing exports could provide nonnegligible growth opportunities going forward.

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ISBN 10

1484302419

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9781484302415

Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed Up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

By: Mr. Anil Ari,Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Mr. Simon Black,Oya Celasun,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Victor Mylonas,Ian W.H. Parry,Iulia Teodoru,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed Up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

By: Mr. Anil Ari,Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Mr. Simon Black,Oya Celasun,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Victor Mylonas,Ian W.H. Parry,Iulia Teodoru,Karlygash Zhunussova

We estimate that the recent surge in international fossil fuel prices will raise European households’ cost of living in 2022 by close to 7 percent of consumption on average. Household burdens vary significantly across and within countries, but in most cases they are regressive. Policymakers have mostly responded to the shock with broad-based price-suppressing measures, including subsidies, tax reductions, and price controls. Going forward, the policy emphasis should shift rapidly towards allowing price signals to operate more freely and providing income relief to the vulnerable. The surge in energy prices will encourage energy conservation and investments in renewable energy, but the manyfold rise in natural gas prices could lead to a persistent switch towards coal. To ensure steady progress towards carbon emissions reduction goals, authorities could use the opportunity to strengthen carbon pricing when global fossil fuel prices decline in the future. Non-price incentives for investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy should also be enhanced, as envisaged in the RePowerEU plan.

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ISBN 13

9798400214592

Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization

By: Oya Celasun

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Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization

By: Oya Celasun

Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchange rate appreciation. A class of models in the literature has explained these empirical regularities with the lack of credibility of the stabilization plans. The lack-of-credibility models typically assume perfectly forward-looking pricing behavior without inflation stickiness and attribute the slow decline in inflation to the consumption boom that occurs due to the perceived temporariness of the ERBS policy. This paper tests the empirical validity of forward-looking pricing behavior in Mexico and Turkey, two countries which have experienced ERBS. It finds that the forward- and backward-looking components of inflation weigh approximately equally in pricing behavior, and therefore, that inflation is partially sticky. The paper then develops the theoretical implications of partial inflation stickiness in a lack of credibility model of ERBS and concludes that the presence of stickiness significantly reduces the persistence of the consumption boom predicted by the model, but helps to explain the recession in the late phase of the stabilization.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451857055

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9781451857054

How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets?

By: Oya Celasun,Ms.Senay Agca

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How Does Public External Debt Affect Corporate Borrowing Costs In Emerging Markets?

By: Oya Celasun,Ms.Senay Agca

Using data on syndicated loan issuances by emerging market firms, we find that an increase in the external debt of emerging market governments significantly raises the borrowing costs of the domestic corporate sector. This finding suggests that a higher level of public external debt "crowds out" foreign credit to the private sector by increasing the risk of a sovereign debt crisis and thereby making exposure to corporate sector debt less desirable. The effect is stronger in countries with weak creditor rights. The results highlight the potential costs of fiscal expansions for the domestic corporate sector even when debt is issued in foreign markets.

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ISBN 10

1451874111

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9781451874112

Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy

The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran

By: Oya Celasun

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Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy

The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran

By: Oya Celasun

This paper provides a brief overview of the evolution of exchange rate policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1993 to 2002 and reviews the basic criteria for the choice of the exchange rate regime in the medium term. The analysis highlights the merits of an intermediate regime which would allow the authorities to smooth out excessive short-term exchange rate fluctuations while letting nominal exchange rate movements facilitate real exchange rate adjustments called for by major oil price shocks.

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ISBN 10

1451844409

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9781451844405

Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe

By: Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Oya Celasun,Dora Iakova,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Frederik Toscani,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Yu Ching Wong,Mr. Li Zeng,Jing Zhou

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Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe

By: Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Oya Celasun,Dora Iakova,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Frederik Toscani,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Yu Ching Wong,Mr. Li Zeng,Jing Zhou

The recommended way of helping households during the ongoing European energy crisis is to allow price signals to operate freely while providing targeted compensation to the vulnerable. In practice, however, institutional, political, and technical constraints have led many European governments to adopt broad, price-suppressing measures, which impede the adjustment in demand, have high fiscal costs, and widen cross-country gaps in prices. This paper focuses on easy-to-implement, second-best policies. Bonuses or rebates on energy bills (that are not linked to the current volume of consumption) or block tariffs are simple options which would improve on the current policy design in many countries. To avoid stoking inflation, fiscal policy should not add to aggregate demand, so relief for energy bills should be targeted and coupled with offsetting fiscal measures. One option is to reclaim the relief from the better-off through income taxation, which would also make support more progressive.

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ISBN 13

9798400227400

Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe

By: Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Oya Celasun,Dora Iakova,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Frederik Toscani,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Yu Ching Wong,Mr. Li Zeng,Jing Zhou

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Targeted, Implementable, and Practical Energy Relief Measures for Households in Europe

By: Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Oya Celasun,Dora Iakova,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Frederik Toscani,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Yu Ching Wong,Mr. Li Zeng,Jing Zhou

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9798400227400

Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.R. Gelos,Mr.Alessandro Prati

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Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.R. Gelos,Mr.Alessandro Prati

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145184686X

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9781451846867

Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

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Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

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1498304419

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9781498304412

Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization

By: Oya Celasun

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Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization

By: Oya Celasun

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1451857055

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9781451857054

Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.Lev Ratnovski,MissRoxana Mihet

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Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States

By: Oya Celasun,Mr.Lev Ratnovski,MissRoxana Mihet

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147550263X

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9781475502633

Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

By: Oya Celasun

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Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

By: Oya Celasun

Latin America's bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the region have not yet rebuilt their fiscal space, despite buoyant commodity revenues and relatively strong growth in the aftermath of the crisis. Using the experience of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, this paper examines the lessons and legacies of the crisis by addressing the following questions, among others: How much did the 2009 fiscal stimulus help growth? What shortcomings were revealed in the fiscal policy frameworks? What institutional reforms are now needed to provide enduring anchors for fiscal policy? How much rebuilding of buffers is needed going forward?

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