Olga Bespalova's Books

Crypto Assets and CBDCs in Latin America and the Caribbean: Opportunities and Risks

By: Maximiliano Appendino,Olga Bespalova,Ms. Rina Bhattacharya,Jean François Clevy,Ms. Nan Geng,Mr. Takuji Komatsuzaki,Justin Lesniak,Weicheng Lian,Ms. Sandra Marcelino,Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte,Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov

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Crypto Assets and CBDCs in Latin America and the Caribbean: Opportunities and Risks

After providing a general overview of the nature, pros, and cons of crypto assets and CBDCs, this paper focuses on documenting their recent experience in LAC. The region records a high interest in unbacked crypto assets and stablecoins and its authorities’ policy responses have varied substantially, ranging from the introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador to their prohibition in many other countries worried about their impact on financial stability, currency/asset substitution, tax evasion, corruption, and money laundering. This paper also describes briefly the results of a survey on CBDCs’ introduction plans and crypto assets regulation. Finally, this paper presents some general lessons and policy recommendations for the region on the regulation of cypto assets, digital currencies and cross-border payments, and on the potential introduction of CBDCs.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400234804

Macrofinancial Linkages and Growth at Risk in the Dominican Republic

By: Olga Bespalova,Mrs.Marina V Rousset

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Macrofinancial Linkages and Growth at Risk in the Dominican Republic

By: Olga Bespalova,Mrs.Marina V Rousset

This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook and its probability distribution. Using this approach, we evaluate risks to GDP growth in the Dominican Republic using quarterly data for 1996-2018. We group macrofinancial conditions in five principal determinants, based on 32 indicators. The Dominican Republic’s growth distribution appears most vulnerable to negative shocks to domestic financial conditions, domestic leverage, domestic demand, and external demand, with additional repercussions from the external cost of borrowing in the longer run. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy plays a particularly important role in reducing growth vulnerabilities when the economy is weak.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513520083

ISBN 13

9781513520087

Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals to Aruba Since COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Olga Bespalova

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Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals to Aruba Since COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Olga Bespalova

This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400224690

Russian Peasant Letters

Life and Times of a 19th-century Family

By: Olga Tsuneko Yokoyama

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Russian Peasant Letters

Life and Times of a 19th-century Family

By: Olga Tsuneko Yokoyama

Around 1880, two teenagers left their village on the Kama river, 1000 km east of Moscow. Their father wanted them to earn cash in Siberia and send it home. The result: scores of letters over a period of 16 years (1881-1896). The parents, two brothers and a sister reported on harvests and family finances, on marriages, births, and deaths, asked for money, offered religious instruction and moral advice, described their daily lives, and shared their worries about their alcoholic father and their desire to see the world and succeed in it. Meanwhile, the family's activity steadily expanded, as their side business grew from a single leaky rowboat to a fleet of steamships. These unique letters, preserved in a Siberian archive, appear here in English translation for the first time. The accompanying detailed commentaries, based on meticulous archival research, recreate these peasants' social, cultural, and economic milieu. The family's letters thus document the complex changes that led to upward mobility in an era that saw the rapid growth of capitalism and urbanization during late imperial Russia. Facsimiles and photographs are included.

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