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Economic and fiscal outlook March 2012

By: Office for Budget Responsibility,Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility

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Economic and fiscal outlook March 2012

By: Office for Budget Responsibility,Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility

The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2016-17. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives. The OBR assessment of the outlook and risks for the UK economy is broadly unchanged since the November 2011 report. A technical recession will be avoided with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% for 2015-16 period. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to total £126 billion, 8.3% of GDP this year which is £1.1 billion less than the November forecast. For 2016-17, the PSNB is then forecast to decline to £21 billion. The fall in PSNB in 2012-13 is much larger than the OBR's November forecast due to the Government's decision to transfer the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit. The Chancellor's decision to cut 50% additional rate income tax to 45% has an estimated direct cost to the Exchequer of £0.1 billion in 2013-14. Other forecasts by the OBR, include: the ILO unemployment rate to rise from 8.4% to 8.7% over the coming year; household disposable income growth to be weak in 2012-13, but consumption to begin to offer some support to the recovery in the second half of the year; that the situation in the euro area remains a major risk to accurate forecasting. The publication is divided into five chapters: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the November 2011 forecast; Chapter 3: economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targest; Annex A - Budget 2012 policy measures.

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Page Count

192

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

0101830327

ISBN 13

9780101830324

Office for Budget Responsibility

economic and fiscal outlook

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

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Office for Budget Responsibility

economic and fiscal outlook

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

This economic and fiscal outlook sets out the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for the period to 2016-17. The economy has grown less strongly than forecast in March primarily because higher-than-expected inflation has squeezed household incomes and consumer spending. The eurozone crisis has impacted on business and consumer confidence. Consequently the OBR has revised it growth forecasts downwards. It expects the underlying momentum of the economy to pick up through 2012 but with the headline measure of GDP broadly flat until the second half. The central forecast is now for 0.7 per cent growth in GDP in 20102, 2.1 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to total £127 this year (8.4 per cent of GDP), but the downward revision of growth forecasts means the deficit will shrink less quickly over the next five years, with a forecast £53 billion PSNB (2.9 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16. Unemployment is expected to rise further to 8.7 per cent in 2012 before falling back to 6.2 per cent by 2016. The OBR estimates that the Government has a roughly 60 per cent of meeting its mandate to balance the structural or cyclically-adjusted current budget by 2016-17. The central economic and fiscal forecasts assume that the euro area finds a way through its current crisis, but a more disorderly outcome is clearly a significant risk.

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200

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

0101821824

ISBN 13

9780101821827

Office for Budget Responsibility

economic and fiscal outlook

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

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Office for Budget Responsibility

economic and fiscal outlook

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

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200

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The Stationery Office

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ISBN 10

0101821824

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9780101821827

Examination of the forecasts prepared by the interim Office for Budget Responsibility for the emergency Budget 2010

By: Great Britain: National Audit Office

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Examination of the forecasts prepared by the interim Office for Budget Responsibility for the emergency Budget 2010

By: Great Britain: National Audit Office

Reports on the Chancellor's launch of the interim Office for Budget Responsibility to make independent assessments of the public finances and the economy, following the formation of the new coalition Government in May 2010.

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The Stationery Office

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ISBN 10

0102965293

ISBN 13

9780102965292

Examination of the forecasts prepared by the Office for Budget Responsibility for 29 November 2010

HM Treasury

By: Great Britain: National Audit Office

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Examination of the forecasts prepared by the Office for Budget Responsibility for 29 November 2010

HM Treasury

By: Great Britain: National Audit Office

This report considers the OBR's forecasts published 29 November 2010. The scope is the same as C&AG's previous examination looking at the forecasts that the interim OBR undertook for the Budget on 22 June 2010. The scope of these assessments differs from requests by previous Chancellors which asked the C&AG to examine the reasonableness and caution underpinning projections of the public finances. The remit of this work does not include any review of the forecast itself or of specific underpinning assumptions.

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

0102965579

ISBN 13

9780102965575

Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and Fiscal Outlook - Cm. 8748

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

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Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and Fiscal Outlook - Cm. 8748

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

The Office for Budget Responsibility reports that the UK economy has picked up more strongly in 2013 than expected in its March forecast. Private consumption and housing investment have grown whilst business investment and net trade continue to disappoint. The forecast for GDP growth in 2013 is revised up to 1.4 per cent, but this is not expected to be maintained in 2014 as productivity and real earnings growth remain weak. The positive growth is judged to be cyclical, reducing the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than indicating stronger underlying growth potential. Productivity-driven growth in real earnings is necessary to sustain the recovery and the outlook for productivity growth is the key uncertainty. Nevertheless, the forecast for growth in 2014 is now 2.4 per cent. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) - the gap between what the Government spends and raises in revenue - is forecast to be £111.2 billion this year, £8.6 billion lower than the March forecast and £3.8 billion lower than in 2012-13. Underlying PSNB is estimated to have fallen by a third between 2009-10 and 2012-13, the pace of reduction slowing in 2012-13. The employment forecast is now expected to reach 31.2 million in 2018, with unemployment falling steadily over the coming years, reaching 7 per cent in mid-2015 and 6 per cent by the end of 2017. CPI inflation is forecast to fall back to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target during 2016 whilst house price inflation is revised upwards, expected to be above 5 per cent in 2014 and 7 per cent in 2015.

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188

Publisher

The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

0101874820

ISBN 13

9780101874823

Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

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Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

The backdrop to this report is: a real economy that, until very recently, has been weaker than expected; a labour market that has been stronger than expected in terms of employment, but weaker in terms of earnings growth; and a fall in public sector borrowing as a share of national income of around a third from its peak in 2009-10, with the deficit falling significantly in 2010-11 and 2011-12 but by much less in 2012-13. The report explains the OBR's June 2010 and March 2012 forecast errors, and the weakness of the real economy. GDP remains 3.3 per cent below its pre-recession peak, the disappointing performance over the last three years reflecting the weakness of domestic and external demand. Private sector employment growth has far exceeded forecasts. The March 2013 forecast for public sector borrowing predicted a figure of £119.8 billion in 2013-14, a reduction of £1 billion over the previous year; but the new forecast is for an increase of £4.2 billion increase over 2012-13.

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Page Count

120

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

0108512711

ISBN 13

9780108512711

Economic and fiscal outlook

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

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Economic and fiscal outlook

By: Office for Budget Responsibility

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164

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

0101797923

ISBN 13

9780101797924

National Audit Office - Department of Energy and Climate Change: The levy Control Framework - HC 815

Department of Energy and Climate Change

By: Great Britain: National Audit Office

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National Audit Office - Department of Energy and Climate Change: The levy Control Framework - HC 815

Department of Energy and Climate Change

By: Great Britain: National Audit Office

In establishing the Levy Control framework, the Government has recognised the importance of monitoring and controlling the considerable cost of energy schemes that consumers fund through their energy bills. The NAO concludes that the Levy Control Framework is a valuable tool for supporting control of the costs to consumers that arise from the Government's energy policies, and has prompted the Department of Energy and Climate Change to monitor actual and expected costs to consumers from the schemes it covers. However, the operation of the Framework has not been fully effective in some key areas. Spending and outcomes have not been linked in deliberations by the joint Treasury and departmental levy control board and reporting on Framework schemes has not supported effective public and parliamentary scrutiny of the overall costs and outcomes from levy-funded spending. As consumer-funded spending on energy policies increases and new schemes are introduced, the Department needs to assure Parliament and the public that it has robust arrangements to monitor, control and report on consumer-funded spending, and the outcomes it is intended to secure. The spending cap under the Levy Control Framework is set to rise from £2 billion in 2011-12 to £7.6 billion in 2020-21 (in 2011-12 prices). By establishing this cap, the Department has provided greater certainty for investors. The NAO's report highlights that the Framework does not cover the consumer-funded Energy Companies Obligation scheme and that it is not yet clear whether it will cover the new Capacity Market including electricity demand reduction measures.

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The Stationery Office

Published Date

ISBN 10

010298719X

ISBN 13

9780102987195

The Stationery Office Annual Catalogue 2011

By: Stationery Office

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The Stationery Office Annual Catalogue 2011

By: Stationery Office

The Stationery Office annual catalogue 2011 provides a comprehensive source of bibliographic information on over 4900 Parliamentary, statutory and official publications - from the UK Parliament, the Northern Ireland Assembly, and many government departments and agencies - which were issued in 2011.

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584

Published Date

ISBN 10

0115017984

ISBN 13

9780115017988

Fiscal Sustainability Report

By: Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility

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Fiscal Sustainability Report

By: Great Britain. Office for Budget Responsibility

In the Fiscal sustainability report (FSR) the Office for Budget Responsibility looks beyond the medium-term forecast horizon of their twice-yearly Economic and fiscal outlooks and ask whether the UK's public finances are likely to be sustainable over the longer term. The approach is twofold: (i) Look at the fiscal impact of past government activity, as reflected in the assets and liabilities on the public sector's balance sheet; (ii) Look at the potential fiscal impact of future government activity, by making 50-year projections of all public spending, revenues and significant financial transactions, such as government loans to students. These projections suggest that the public finances are likely to come under pressure over the longer term, primarily as a result of an ageing population. Under the OBR's definition of unchanged policy, the Government would end up having to spend more as a share of national income on age-related items such as pensions and health care. But the same demographic trends would leave government revenues roughly stable as a share of national income. Long-term projections such as these are highly uncertain and the results presented here should be seen as broad-brush illustrations rather than precise forecasts. This publication is divided into 5 chapters, with two annexes and a bibliography.

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162

Published Date

ISBN 10

0108511847

ISBN 13

9780108511844

Book's by Office for Budget Responsibility

Economic and fiscal outlook March 2012

Economic and fiscal outlook March 2012

Office for Budget Responsibility

Office for Budget Responsibility

Office for Budget Responsibility

Office for Budget Responsibility

Examination of the forecasts prepared by the interim Office for Budget Responsibility for the emergency Budget 2010

Examination of the forecasts prepared by the interim Office for Budget Responsibility for the emergency Budget 2010

Examination of the forecasts prepared by the Office for Budget Responsibility for 29 November 2010

Examination of the forecasts prepared by the Office for Budget Responsibility for 29 November 2010

Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and Fiscal Outlook - Cm. 8748

Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and Fiscal Outlook - Cm. 8748

Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report

Office for Budget Responsibiity: Forecast Evaluation Report

Economic and fiscal outlook

Economic and fiscal outlook

National Audit Office - Department of Energy and Climate Change: The levy Control Framework - HC 815

National Audit Office - Department of Energy and Climate Change: The levy Control Framework - HC 815

The Stationery Office Annual Catalogue 2011

The Stationery Office Annual Catalogue 2011

Fiscal Sustainability Report

Fiscal Sustainability Report

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