This book demonstrates how the reliable measurement of growth in tax revenues, both for a tax system and for its component taxes, is important for the design of tax policy. The need for discretionary changes in tax parameters (such as tax rates, income thresholds and allowances) is conditional on the expected automatic revenue growth generated by the tax system. The properties that generate these automatic revenue changes are referred to as the built-in flexibility, or revenue responsiveness, of the tax. This concept is the central focus of the analyses in this book, which provides an invaluable review and synthesis of analytical results and demonstrates how this concept can be applied in practice to yield estimates of revenue responsiveness in various countries. John Creedy and Norman Gemmell highlight how an understanding of the principal determinants of a tax system's responsiveness, and a knowledge of the relevant magnitudes, are important for the design and reform of tax policy where both revenue and redistributional considerations are typically central to the policy agenda. Providing extensions of analysis to cover indirect taxes, and direct and indirect taxes combined, as well as empirical applications for several countries, Modelling Tax Revenue Growth will be warmly welcomed by researchers and graduate students interested in public finance and government officials and those in international organisations interested in tax revenue growth.
Modelling Corporation Tax Revenue examines the revenue growth properties of corporate income taxes and how firms respond to changes in corporation tax. It provides a companion volume to the authors' Modelling Tax Revenue Growth, which explores the revenue growth and behavioural response properties of income and consumption taxes.
This paper examines behavioural responses by companies to changes in profit taxation in their home country. The elasticity of tax revenue with respect to changes in the corparation tax rate are decomposed into a variety of responses. As well as distinguishing real from profitshifting responses, it is important to separate the responses of gross profits from those of deductions (such as claims for past or current losses) where these are endogenously related to gross profits declared at home. This endogenous response can be expected to differ over the business cycle, which can be important for empirical estimates of aggregate behavioural responses especially, but not exclusively, during cyclical downturns. It is suggested that the revenue elasticity can be expected to be asymmetrical between periods of above- and belowtrend growth, arising from the asymmetric treatment of losses by the tax function.
This paper examines the way in which the asymmetric treatment of losses within corporate tax codes can be expected to affect behavioural responses to changes in tax rates. The paper introduces the concept of an equivalent tax function, raising the same present value of tax payments as the actual function, in which the effective rate on losses in any period, and thus the degree of asymmetry, is explicit. The influence on the elasticity of tax revenue with respect to the tax rate of this effective rate is then examined, where ?loss-shifting? occurs. Results suggest that estimates of the behavioural effect of changes in tax rates on tax revenues can be expected in general to be smaller in regimes that involve greater asymmetries in the tax treatement of losses. As losses vary over the economic cycle, asymmetric treatment also generates effects on tax revenues that are asymmetric (non-linear) between above-trend and below-trend parts of the cycle.
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