Fault tree analysis is an important technique in determining the safety and dependability of complex systems. Fault trees are used as a major tool in the study of system safety as well as in reliability and availability studies. The basic methods – construction, logical analysis, probability evaluation and influence study – are described in this book. The following extensions of fault trees, non-coherent fault trees, fault trees with delay and multi-performance fault trees, are also explained. Traditional algorithms for fault tree analysis are presented, as well as more recent algorithms based on binary decision diagrams (BDD).
Here is a work that adds much to the sum of our knowledge in a key area of science today. It is concerned with the estimation of discrete-time semi-Markov and hidden semi-Markov processes. A unique feature of the book is the use of discrete time, especially useful in some specific applications where the time scale is intrinsically discrete. The models presented in the book are specifically adapted to reliability studies and DNA analysis. The book is mainly intended for applied probabilists and statisticians interested in semi-Markov chains theory, reliability and DNA analysis, and for theoretical oriented reliability and bioinformatics engineers.
This volume consists of twenty-four papers selected by the editors from the sixty-one papers presented at the 1st International Conference on Mathemati cal Methods in Reliability held at the Politehnica University of Bucharest from 16 to 19 September 1997. The papers have been divided into three sections: statistical methods, probabilistic methods, and special techniques and appli cations. Of course, as with any classification, some papers could be as well assigned to other sections. Problems in reliability are encountered in items in everyday usage. Relia bility is an important feature of household appliances, cars, telephones, power supplies, and so on, whether viewed from the vantage of the producer or the consumer. Important decisions are based on the reliability of the product. Obtaining systems that perform adequately for a specified period of time in a given environment is an important goal for both government and industry. Hence study and use of reliability theory, which can be applied in the research, development, and production phases of a system to enable the user to evaluate and improve performance, is a worthwhile venture. If reliability theory is to be useful, it must be quantitative in nature, because reliability must be demonstra ble. Subsequently probability and statistics, among others, play an important part in its development.
At first there was the Markov property. The theory of stochastic processes, which can be considered as an exten sion of probability theory, allows the modeling of the evolution of systems through the time. It cannot be properly understood just as pure mathemat ics, separated from the body of experience and examples that have brought it to life. The theory of stochastic processes entered a period of intensive develop ment, which is not finished yet, when the idea of the Markov property was brought in. Not even a serious study of the renewal processes is possible without using the strong tool of Markov processes. The modern theory of Markov processes has its origins in the studies by A. A: Markov (1856-1922) of sequences of experiments "connected in a chain" and in the attempts to describe mathematically the physical phenomenon known as Brownian mo tion. Later, many generalizations (in fact all kinds of weakenings of the Markov property) of Markov type stochastic processes were proposed. Some of them have led to new classes of stochastic processes and useful applications. Let us mention some of them: systems with complete connections [90, 91, 45, 86]; K-dependent Markov processes [44]; semi-Markov processes, and so forth. The semi-Markov processes generalize the renewal processes as well as the Markov jump processes and have numerous applications, especially in relia bility.
This book extends the theory and applications of random evolutions to semi-Markov random media in discrete time, essentially focusing on semi-Markov chains as switching or driving processes. After giving the definitions of discrete-time semi-Markov chains and random evolutions, it presents the asymptotic theory in a functional setting, including weak convergence results in the series scheme, and their extensions in some additional directions, including reduced random media, controlled processes, and optimal stopping. Finally, applications of discrete-time semi-Markov random evolutions in epidemiology and financial mathematics are discussed. This book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in applied mathematics and statistics, and other disciplines, including engineering, epidemiology, finance and economics, who are concerned with stochastic models of systems.
1 Reliability: Past, Present, Future.- 2 Reliability Analysis as a Tool for Expressing and Communicating Uncertainty.- 3 Modeling a Process of Non-Ideal Repair.- 4 Some Models and Mathematical Results for Reliability of Systems of Components.- 5 Algorithms of Stochastic Activity and Problems of Reliability.- 6 Some Shifted Stochastic Orders.- 7 Characterization of Distributions in Reliability.- 8 Asymptotic Analysis of Reliability for Switching Systems in Light and Heavy Traffic Conditions.- 9 Nonlinearly Perturbed Markov Chains and Large Deviations for Lifetime Functionals.- 10 Evolutionary Systems in an Asymptotic Split Phase Space.- 11 An Asymptotic Approach to Multistate Systems Reliability Evaluation.- 12 Computer Intensive Methods Based on Resampling in Analysis of Reliability and Survival Data.- 13 Statistical Analysis of Damage Processes.- 14 Data Analysis Based on Warranty Database.- 15 Failure Models Indexed by Time and Usage.- 16 A New Multiple Proof Loads Approach For Estimating Correlations.- 17 Conditional and Partial Correlation For Graphical Uncertainty Models.- 18 Semiparametric Methods of Time Scale Selection.- 19 Censored and Truncated Lifetime Data.- 20 Tests for a Family of Survival Models Based on Extremes.- 21 Software Reliability Models - Past, Present and Future.- 22 Dynamic Analysis of Failures in Repairable Systems and Software.- 23 Precedence Test and Maximal Precedence Test.- 24 Hierarchical Bayesian Inference in Related Reliability Experiments.- 25 Tests for Equality of Intensities of Failures of a Repairable System Under Two Competing Risks.- 26 Semiparametric Estimation in Accelerated Life Testing.- 27 A Theoretical Framework for Accelerated Testing.- 28 Unbiased Estimation in Reliability and Similar Problems.- 29 Prediction Under Association.- 30 Uniform Limit Laws for Kernel Density Estimators on Possibly Unbounded Intervals.- 31 A Weak Convergence Result Relevant in Recurrent and Renewal Models.
Nonparametric statistics has probably become the leading methodology for researchers performing data analysis. It is nevertheless true that, whereas these methods have already proved highly effective in other applied areas of knowledge such as biostatistics or social sciences, nonparametric analyses in reliability currently form an interesting area of study that has not yet been fully explored. Applied Nonparametric Statistics in Reliability is focused on the use of modern statistical methods for the estimation of dependability measures of reliability systems that operate under different conditions. The scope of the book includes: smooth estimation of the reliability function and hazard rate of non-repairable systems; study of stochastic processes for modelling the time evolution of systems when imperfect repairs are performed; nonparametric analysis of discrete and continuous time semi-Markov processes; isotonic regression analysis of the structure function of a reliability system, and lifetime regression analysis. Besides the explanation of the mathematical background, several numerical computations or simulations are presented as illustrative examples. The corresponding computer-based methods have been implemented using R and MATLAB®. A concrete modelling scheme is chosen for each practical situation and, in consequence, a nonparametric inference procedure is conducted. Applied Nonparametric Statistics in Reliability will serve the practical needs of scientists (statisticians and engineers) working on applied reliability subjects.
This book provides recent results on the stochastic approximation of systems by weak convergence techniques. General and particular schemes of proofs for average, diffusion, and Poisson approximations of stochastic systems are presented, allowing one to simplify complex systems and obtain numerically tractable models.The systems discussed in the book include stochastic additive functionals, dynamical systems, stochastic integral functionals, increment processes and impulsive processes. All these systems are switched by Markov and semi-Markov processes whose phase space is considered in asymptotic split and merging schemes. Most of the results from semi-Markov processes are new and presented for the first time in this book.
This textbook addresses postgraduate students in applied mathematics, probability, and statistics, as well as computer scientists, biologists, physicists and economists, who are seeking a rigorous introduction to applied stochastic processes. Pursuing a pedagogic approach, the content follows a path of increasing complexity, from the simplest random sequences to the advanced stochastic processes. Illustrations are provided from many applied fields, together with connections to ergodic theory, information theory, reliability and insurance. The main content is also complemented by a wealth of examples and exercises with solutions.
This book provides a pedagogical examination of the way in which stochastic models are encountered in applied sciences and techniques such as physics, engineering, biology and genetics, economics and social sciences. It covers Markov and semi-Markov models, as well as their particular cases: Poisson, renewal processes, branching processes, Ehrenfest models, genetic models, optimal stopping, reliability, reservoir theory, storage models, and queuing systems. Given this comprehensive treatment of the subject, students and researchers in applied sciences, as well as anyone looking for an introduction to stochastic models, will find this title of invaluable use.
This textbook presents the basics of probability and statistical estimation, with a view to applications. The didactic presentation follows a path of increasing complexity with a constant concern for pedagogy, from the most classical formulas of probability theory to the asymptotics of independent random sequences and an introduction to inferential statistics. The necessary basics on measure theory are included to ensure the book is self-contained. Illustrations are provided from many applied fields, including information theory and reliability theory. Numerous examples and exercises in each chapter, all with solutions, add to the main content of the book. Written in an accessible yet rigorous style, the book is addressed to advanced undergraduate students in mathematics and graduate students in applied mathematics and statistics. It will also appeal to students and researchers in other disciplines, including computer science, engineering, biology, physics and economics, who are interested in a pragmatic introduction to the probability modeling of random phenomena.
Earthquake occurrence modeling is a rapidly developing research area. This book deals with its critical issues, ranging from theoretical advances to practical applications. The introductory chapter outlines state-of-the-art earthquake modeling approaches based on stochastic models. Chapter 2 presents seismogenesis in association with the evolving stress field. Chapters 3 to 5 present earthquake occurrence modeling by means of hidden (semi-)Markov models and discuss associated characteristic measures and relative estimation aspects. Further comparisons, the most important results and our concluding remarks are provided in Chapters 6 and 7.
The study of earthquakes is a multidisciplinary field, an amalgam of geodynamics, mathematics, engineering and more. The overriding commonality between them all is the presence of natural randomness. Stochastic studies (probability, stochastic processes and statistics) can be of different types, for example, the black box approach (one state), the white box approach (multi-state), the simulation of different aspects, and so on. This book has the advantage of bringing together a group of international authors, known for their earthquake-specific approaches, to cover a wide array of these myriad aspects. A variety of topics are presented, including statistical nonparametric and parametric methods, a multi-state system approach, earthquake simulators, post-seismic activity models, time series Markov models with regression, scaling properties and multifractal approaches, selfcorrecting models, the linked stress release model, Markovian arrival models, Poisson-based detection techniques, change point detection techniques on seismicity models, and, finally, semi-Markov models for earthquake forecasting.
The aim of this book is to reflect the current cutting-edge thinking and established practices in the investigation of queueing systems and networks. This second volume includes eight chapters written by experts wellknown in their areas. The book conducts a stability analysis of certain types of multiserver regenerative queueing systems; a transient evaluation of Markovian queueing systems, focusing on closed-form distributions and numerical techniques; analysis of queueing models in service sectors using analytical and simulation approaches; plus an investigation of probability distributions in queueing models and their use in economics, industry, demography and environmental studies. This book also considers techniques for the control of information in queueing systems and their impact on strategic customer behavior, social welfare and the revenue of monopolists. In addition, applications of maximum entropy methods of inference for the analysis of a stable M/G/1 queue with heavy tails, and inventory models with positive service time - including perishable items and stock supplied using various algorithmic control policies ((s; S); (r;Q), etc.).
This book provides recent results on the stochastic approximation of systems by weak convergence techniques. General and particular schemes of proofs for average, diffusion, and Poisson approximations of stochastic systems are presented, allowing one to simplify complex systems and obtain numerically tractable models.The systems discussed in the book include stochastic additive functionals, dynamical systems, stochastic integral functionals, increment processes and impulsive processes. All these systems are switched by Markov and semi-Markov processes whose phase space is considered in asymptotic split and merging schemes. Most of the results from semi-Markov processes are new and presented for the first time in this book.
The aim of this book is to reflect the current cutting-edge thinking and established practices in the investigation of queueing systems and networks. This second volume includes eight chapters written by experts wellknown in their areas. The book conducts a stability analysis of certain types of multiserver regenerative queueing systems; a transient evaluation of Markovian queueing systems, focusing on closed-form distributions and numerical techniques; analysis of queueing models in service sectors using analytical and simulation approaches; plus an investigation of probability distributions in queueing models and their use in economics, industry, demography and environmental studies. This book also considers techniques for the control of information in queueing systems and their impact on strategic customer behavior, social welfare and the revenue of monopolists. In addition, applications of maximum entropy methods of inference for the analysis of a stable M/G/1 queue with heavy tails, and inventory models with positive service time - including perishable items and stock supplied using various algorithmic control policies ((s; S); (r;Q), etc.).
Earthquake occurrence modeling is a rapidly developing research area. This book deals with its critical issues, ranging from theoretical advances to practical applications. The introductory chapter outlines state-of-the-art earthquake modeling approaches based on stochastic models. Chapter 2 presents seismogenesis in association with the evolving stress field. Chapters 3 to 5 present earthquake occurrence modeling by means of hidden (semi-)Markov models and discuss associated characteristic measures and relative estimation aspects. Further comparisons, the most important results and our concluding remarks are provided in Chapters 6 and 7.
Nonparametric statistics has probably become the leading methodology for researchers performing data analysis. It is nevertheless true that, whereas these methods have already proved highly effective in other applied areas of knowledge such as biostatistics or social sciences, nonparametric analyses in reliability currently form an interesting area of study that has not yet been fully explored. Applied Nonparametric Statistics in Reliability is focused on the use of modern statistical methods for the estimation of dependability measures of reliability systems that operate under different conditions. The scope of the book includes: smooth estimation of the reliability function and hazard rate of non-repairable systems; study of stochastic processes for modelling the time evolution of systems when imperfect repairs are performed; nonparametric analysis of discrete and continuous time semi-Markov processes; isotonic regression analysis of the structure function of a reliability system, and lifetime regression analysis. Besides the explanation of the mathematical background, several numerical computations or simulations are presented as illustrative examples. The corresponding computer-based methods have been implemented using R and MATLAB®. A concrete modelling scheme is chosen for each practical situation and, in consequence, a nonparametric inference procedure is conducted. Applied Nonparametric Statistics in Reliability will serve the practical needs of scientists (statisticians and engineers) working on applied reliability subjects.
The study of earthquakes is a multidisciplinary field, an amalgam of geodynamics, mathematics, engineering and more. The overriding commonality between them all is the presence of natural randomness. Stochastic studies (probability, stochastic processes and statistics) can be of different types, for example, the black box approach (one state), the white box approach (multi-state), the simulation of different aspects, and so on. This book has the advantage of bringing together a group of international authors, known for their earthquake-specific approaches, to cover a wide array of these myriad aspects. A variety of topics are presented, including statistical nonparametric and parametric methods, a multi-state system approach, earthquake simulators, post-seismic activity models, time series Markov models with regression, scaling properties and multifractal approaches, selfcorrecting models, the linked stress release model, Markovian arrival models, Poisson-based detection techniques, change point detection techniques on seismicity models, and, finally, semi-Markov models for earthquake forecasting.
At first there was the Markov property. The theory of stochastic processes, which can be considered as an exten sion of probability theory, allows the modeling of the evolution of systems through the time. It cannot be properly understood just as pure mathemat ics, separated from the body of experience and examples that have brought it to life. The theory of stochastic processes entered a period of intensive develop ment, which is not finished yet, when the idea of the Markov property was brought in. Not even a serious study of the renewal processes is possible without using the strong tool of Markov processes. The modern theory of Markov processes has its origins in the studies by A. A: Markov (1856-1922) of sequences of experiments "connected in a chain" and in the attempts to describe mathematically the physical phenomenon known as Brownian mo tion. Later, many generalizations (in fact all kinds of weakenings of the Markov property) of Markov type stochastic processes were proposed. Some of them have led to new classes of stochastic processes and useful applications. Let us mention some of them: systems with complete connections [90, 91, 45, 86]; K-dependent Markov processes [44]; semi-Markov processes, and so forth. The semi-Markov processes generalize the renewal processes as well as the Markov jump processes and have numerous applications, especially in relia bility.
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