Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents
New from the author of the best-selling Christian classic, Run Baby Run. The God we love is passionate about finding lost souls, with freeing human hearts enslaved to sin. To truly know God, this must become our life’s driving desire as well… our Soul Obsession. And when we fall obediently in step with God, we’ll see Him perform miracles through us to rescue people and give them new life. In his powerful new book, internationally known author Nicky Cruz shares powerful personal stories of faithful obedience, even in the midst of difficult circumstances–including the amazing story of his mother’s deathbed conversion and healing. You, too, can move past doubts, understand both the natural and supernatural worlds, and develop a faith that can move any mountain, no matter how high or wide or difficult. “Do we truly understand the power we have at our fingertips? Do we grasp the significance of the message that we bring to a lost world? Do we comprehend how easily evil can be beaten and revoked by simply opening ourselves up to the moving of the Holy Spirit among us? Do we know what God is capable of doing among us? “If you want to change the world, begin by letting God change you. By letting the passion of Jesus become your passion. By letting the Holy Spirit be your only guide and mentor, every step, every minute of the day. By allowing God to set your heart on fire with a Soul Obsession!”–Nicky Cruz
From red carpets and runways to front row at Fashion Week, designer and muse Nicky Hilton has earned her reputation as a style icon. Exposed to the top tier of the fashion industry from childhood, in this style guide Hilton reveals tips and tricks of the trade she has learned along the way. Never having employed a stylist, Hilton has created her own personal style. In this guide she helps you discover yours. Despite her opulent upbringing, Nicky maintains a less-is-more mindset and instructs you how to look like a million—without spending a million. Her formula for creating your signature style is as easy as 3-6-5. Consider the 3 main aspects of your lifestyle, choose 6 staple items of clothing, and identify 5 essential accessories. This simple plan will allow you to make savvy wardrobe selections that keep you on-trend and out of hoarder status, for good. Nicky shares her best-kept style secrets: *The $30 wardrobe item you can't live without *The one closet accessory that keeps you organized at all times *Five must-have wardrobe items *DIY upgrades: from bygone to brilliant *How to pack like a jet-setter Full of personal stories, style successes, fashion mishaps and more, 365 Style is the ultimate guide to fashion from the style expert turned best friend you never knew you had! This ebook edition has been optimized for viewing on a large-sized screen
From his experience of a spiritualist childhood in Puerto Rico and gang culture in New York to an international Christian ministry, Nicky Cruz has seen humanity at its best and its worst. Cruz draws on his experiences and evangelistic ministry to expound the reality of the devil's attempts to gain power over individuals and communities.
Between 1600 and 1800 around 4,000 Catholic women left England for a life of exile in the convents of France, Flanders, Portugal and America. These closed communities offered religious contemplation and safety, but also provided an environment of concentrated female intellectualism. The nuns’ writings from this time form a unique resource.
Use this brand-new textbook written to support the Level 3 CIPD Certificate in People Practice to succeed in your studies and launch your career as a people professional. Structured around the core knowledge and behaviours needed for the Level 3 CIPD qualification, People Practice provides a thorough understanding of the theory and practice of the key areas of the people profession. This includes business, culture and change in context, workforce analytics and the necessary skills and knowledge for people professionals. This book covers everything from understanding how external factors impact organizational goals, how to develop professional courage and build ethical and inclusive practices through to recruitment, performance, reward and supporting others. Written by the team who developed the new CIPD Level 3 qualification, this book will ensure that students learn both the theory and practice necessary for their academic studies and their future careers. Full of case studies, exercises, key definition boxes and reflective questions, this book will allow students to test their understanding, see how the theory applies in the workplace and develop their critical thinking skills. Further reading suggestions in each chapter encourage a wide and broad engagement with the subject. Online resources include PowerPoint slides, a lecturer's manual and multiple choice questions for students.
An essential reference work for any student studying psychology for the first time, A Student's Dictionary of Psychology and Neuroscience (Seventh Edition) provides over 2,500 definitions of complex concepts in clear and accessible language alongside helpful diagrams. The dictionary offers comprehensive coverage of the main contemporary terms in psychology and neuroscience. This new edition features updated references which will be particularly relevant to the key areas of neuroscience and neuropsychology and also to recent concepts of psychological significance, such as expanded coverage of research methods, internet psychology, cognitive psychology and social psychology. The dictionary also features end material with useful notes for constructing student essays as well as key references and a list of common abbreviations. Extensive cross-referencing allows students to follow up and identify further details of a given topic, and mini-biographies of key psychologists help to provide relevant context. A Student's Dictionary of Psychology and Neuroscience is the perfect accompaniment for any student newly encountering this fascinating subject, those taking related disciplines in the health or social sciences, or professionals wanting to familiarise themselves with key terms and ideas.
For Dummies Travel guides are the ultimate user-friendly trip planners, combining the broad appeal and time-tested features of the For Dummies series with up-to-the-minute advice and information from the experts at Frommer's. Small trim size for use on-the-go Focused coverage of only the best hotels and restaurants in all price ranges The fun and easy way® to explore Europe From great museums and historic sights to fabulous food and trendsetting styles, Europe has it all. Get the lowdown on everything from passports to palaces, culture to nightlife, and cathedrals to cuisine. With mini-guides to fifteen of Europe's most popular cities and surrounding areas in eleven different countries, this book is your ticket to an exciting European adventure. Open the book and find: Down-to-earth trip-planning advice What you shouldn't miss -and what you can skip The best hotels and restaurants for every budget Lots of detailed maps
OMG! This book is SO me! The tips and stories shared by Ed, Mark and Nicky will help you live a life filled with more fun, joy and enthusiasm!' ALISON HAMMOND, TV Presenter 'Kids are so authentic and there's no reason for us to lose that when we're older. Kids see the wonder and awe in the smallest things every day. Be More Kid reminds us how important it is to bring out the best in ourselves and how we can do that in way that also brings out the best in others.' BEN SHEPHARD, TV Presenter 'This book gives you the tools to bring the belief, energy and passion you had as a child into your current life with transformational results.' SARAH STIRK, TV Presenter, Sky Sports & Entrepreneur THIS ISN'T JUST ANOTHER SELF IMPROVEMENT BOOK. Have you ever felt there must be more to life? Do you feel unfulfilled? Have you felt stuck, not knowing how to move forward and found yourself settling for less than you deserve? AND IT ISN'T ABOUT HAVING TO CREATE A NEW YOU. Since childhood you've had all of the resources that you need to create the life that you want, and over time you've simply lost touch with them. Now is the time to find them again. With expert guidance from broadcaster and entrepreneur, Ed James and behaviour and relationship experts, Mark & Nicky Taylor, you'll rediscover your sense of purpose, reconnect with what is important to you and find out how to unlearn unhelpful habits and behaviours. Employing simple tools and techniques you can use each day, Be More Kid shows you how to: Enjoy a meaningful and fulfilling life Stop overthinking and build resilience in a challenging world End the conflict of putting everyone else before your own needs Rediscover the contentment, enthusiasm and zest for life you had as a child If you are ready for a new approach to your happiness, relationships and your future, Be More Kid will guide you through the journey, one step at a time.
A Student’s Dictionary of Psychology is an essential reference for all undergraduate psychology students and those studying psychology for the first time, including those in related disciplines such as health care and social science. It provides the reader with clear definitions of key concepts from all areas of psychology. This new edition of A Student’s Dictionary of Psychology adopts a slightly different format and extended content to previous editions, but it continues to be an ‘explaining’ dictionary rather than simply a set of one-line definitions. Following up all the references and cross-references relating to a topic should give the reader a reasonable overview of the subject; in that sense, the authors have often referred to it as a kind of random-access textbook, as well as a dictionary of the main terms in psychology. Key features include: Over 2,400 entries in total; Extensive cross referencing for easy navigation; Mini biographies of key psychologists; Common abbreviations and a list of key reference works; Study notes section. This new edition includes increased coverage of psychoneurology, social, clinical, and cognitive psychology, and research methodology, as well as several other terms which have come into common usage in recent years. It also includes a list of common abbreviations, and expanded coverage of significant figures in the history of psychology. This comprehensive dictionary will support the reader all the way through their psychology studies.
One Holy Fire is the dramatic true story of the work of God’s Spirit in one person’ s life–and how that same Spirit can revolutionize readers’ lives as well. Nicky Cruz shares lively, never-before-published stories from his ministry that will quicken readers’ hearts and spark their souls. Stories of physical, emotional, and spiritual healing. Of masses coming to salvation in Jesus Christ. Of hand-to-hand spiritual warfare. Of the supernatural provision and presence of God’s Spirit in every area of his life and ministry. Cruz also explores the promises in Scripture regarding the Spirit’s work on earth, addressing such questions as What does it mean to “walk in the Spirit”? How does a supernatural God do business in a natural world? Why has the body of Christ been so slow to come to grips with the Spirit’s power and presence? In One Holy Fire, the renowned author of the phenomenal Christian classic Run Baby Run introduces readers to the Holy Spirit. He challenges them to live according to the Spirit’s moment-by-moment guidance. And he inspires them to open their heart and let the Spirit ignite their soul.
The Rough Guides series contain full color photos, three maps in one, and arewaterproof and tearproof. They contain thousands of keyed listings and brightnew graphics.
Nicky Wesson, childbirth teacher and mother of six, shows how the elements that make the most difference in easing labor pain are not technological advances or synthetic drugs but where and with whom you choose to birth.
Expand and challenge your knowledge and understanding of Physics with this updated, all-in-one textbook for Years 1 and 2 that builds mathematical skills and provides practical assessment guidance. Written for the AQA A-level Physics specification, this revised textbook will: - Offer support for the mathematical requirements of the course with worked examples of calculations and a dedicated 'Maths in physics' chapter. - Measure progress and assess learning throughout the course with 'Test yourself' and 'Stretch and challenge' questions. - Support all 12 required practicals with applications, worked examples and activities included in each chapter. - Develop understanding with free online access to 'Test yourself' answers and 'Practice' question answers*.
In the evaluation of healthcare, rigorous methods of quantitative assessment are necessary to establish interventions that are both effective and cost-effective. Usually a single study will not fully address these issues and it is desirable to synthesize evidence from multiple sources. This book aims to provide a practical guide to evidence synthesis for the purpose of decision making, starting with a simple single parameter model, where all studies estimate the same quantity (pairwise meta-analysis) and progressing to more complex multi-parameter structures (including meta-regression, mixed treatment comparisons, Markov models of disease progression, and epidemiology models). A comprehensive, coherent framework is adopted and estimated using Bayesian methods. Key features: A coherent approach to evidence synthesis from multiple sources. Focus is given to Bayesian methods for evidence synthesis that can be integrated within cost-effectiveness analyses in a probabilistic framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Provides methods to statistically combine evidence from a range of evidence structures. Emphasizes the importance of model critique and checking for evidence consistency. Presents numerous worked examples, exercises and solutions drawn from a variety of medical disciplines throughout the book. WinBUGS code is provided for all examples. Evidence Synthesis for Decision Making in Healthcare is intended for health economists, decision modelers, statisticians and others involved in evidence synthesis, health technology assessment, and economic evaluation of health technologies.
Exam Board: AQA Level: AS/A-level Subject: Physics First Teaching: September 2015 First Exam: June 2016 AQA Approved Expand and challenge your students' knowledge and understanding of Physics with textbooks that build mathematical skills and provide practical assessment guidance. - Offers support for the mathematical requirements of the course with worked examples of calculations and a dedicated 'Maths in Physics' chapter - Measures progress and assess learning throughout the course with Test Yourself and Stretch and Challenge Questions to extend the most able pupils beyond A-level - Supports all 12 required practicals with applications, worked examples and activities included in each chapter - Develops understanding and enable self- and peer-assessment with free online access to 'Test yourself' answers. AQA A-level Physics Year 1 Student Book includes AS-level.
A Creative Approach to Teaching Science is filled with exciting and innovative ways to teach and meet the objectives for primary physics, chemistry and biology from Years 1-6. Each idea has been tried and tested, used in the classroom with children of the relevant age range, and all are deep rooted in practical enquiry with clear links to the statutory requirements for primary science. This book is jam-packed full of strategies and ready made ideas with a creative edge, aimed at engaging children and encouraging them to think critically and scientifically, and to consider key scientific topics in real life scenarios. This book is a must-have for teachers looking to inspire their pupils, and making sure they have fun along the way.
A practical guide to network meta-analysis with examples and code In the evaluation of healthcare, rigorous methods of quantitative assessment are necessary to establish which interventions are effective and cost-effective. Often a single study will not provide the answers and it is desirable to synthesise evidence from multiple sources, usually randomised controlled trials. This book takes an approach to evidence synthesis that is specifically intended for decision making when there are two or more treatment alternatives being evaluated, and assumes that the purpose of every synthesis is to answer the question "for this pre-identified population of patients, which treatment is 'best'?" A comprehensive, coherent framework for network meta-analysis (mixed treatment comparisons) is adopted and estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in the freely available software WinBUGS. Each chapter contains worked examples, exercises, solutions and code that may be adapted by readers to apply to their own analyses. This book can be used as an introduction to evidence synthesis and network meta-analysis, its key properties and policy implications. Examples and advanced methods are also presented for the more experienced reader. Methods used throughout this book can be applied consistently: model critique and checking for evidence consistency are emphasised. Methods are based on technical support documents produced for NICE Decision Support Unit, which support the NICE Methods of Technology Appraisal. Code presented is also the basis for the code used by the ISPOR Task Force on Indirect Comparisons. Includes extensive carefully worked examples, with thorough explanations of how to set out data for use in WinBUGS and how to interpret the output. Network Meta-Analysis for Decision Making will be of interest to decision makers, medical statisticians, health economists, and anyone involved in Health Technology Assessment including the pharmaceutical industry.
Whether you're a visitor or a local looking for something different, New Mexico Off the Beaten Path shows you the Land of Enchantment with new perspectives on timeless destinations and introduces you to those you never knew existed--from the best in local dining to quirky cultural tidbits to hidden attractions, unique finds, and unusual locales. So if you've "been there, done that" one too many times, get off the main road and venture Off the Beaten Path.
This book takes an international perspective on child welfare, examining how frameworks can be adapted to address the rights and best interests of children. Synthesising the latest research, experts redefine the concept of a 'child in need' in a world where global movement is common and children are frequently involved in the law.
Carve a path to success through ease. One that lights you up with a sense of soul, flow and grace. When we embrace the elegant power in our own lives, we step into our 'inner knowing' and fully own our innate, intuitive and individual gifts. When we unshackle from the shoulds of societal conditioning around how we are expected to show up in our lives we redefine success on our own terms, as we own what makes us different, special and unique. But how do we do this? By stepping into our own natural light. It's not about changing or becoming. It's about remembering and knowing that we are already enough. Our authentic nature glows from within at a soul level. It emanates from every pore with our knowing that we have elegant power in our enoughness. This is the path to easefulness in our lives, success through ease. When we are grounded in a sense of self-worth and self-love we do not seek approval or validation from outside of ourselves. We need to live more deliberately and authentically, owning our own path in a way that celebrates, accepts and embraces our own innate power with an elegant soul, flow and grace. Nicky Rowbotham's Embrace Your Elegant Power will help you move from playing small to shining bright in your own life, in a way that works for you. It will shift your perspectives and create a sense of spaciousness and thoughtful simplicity within your life for a more aligned, authentic individual energy to come through. Full of powerful, personal and transformative stories and insights, Embrace Your Elegant Power is your level-up guide to celebrating your own uniqueness and using easefulness as the frequency holder for your life. Nicky Rowbotham is the founder of Inspired Change and the author of the best-seller 7 Steps to Finding Flow: Flip the Script on Stress. An intuitive health coach, speaker and thought leader, Nicky is committed to helping people carve a new, more easeful path to success.
Coaching Resource to build Positive Behaviour in Sport This resource introduces you to the subject of positive behaviour management in sport. It helps you learn why unwanted behaviour occurs and how to deal with situations as they arise. Broken down into manageable sections, you'll discover: different ways of tackling unwanted behaviour in sport how to create an environment that encourages positive behaviour 'Top Tips' that help you recognise what creates a positive coaching environment and what actions encourage acceptable behaviour. A coach's guidebook to dealing with behaviour problems Every group and individual is different, and managing behaviour is a hands-on job. Use the examples within this guide to find the best solutions for you and create a positive environment for young people to develop.
You won’t believe what you can make with knitted circles! One circle can become a stylish hat or an adorable shrug. Two, and you have a unique handbag or cover-up. Knit more circles, and you can make show-stopping scarves, capes, sweaters, afghans—even a stunning lace dress. Only Nicky Epstein, always on the cutting edge of knitwear design, could dream up these innovative garments and accessories that all start with a simple shape. In her bestselling book Knitting Block by Block, Nicky elevated the humble block to outstanding fashion, but that was just the beginning. Now she takes on a new challenge and shows you how to make a statement with circles. Mix and match to your heart’s content with 100 circles and 20 inspiring projects that feature everything from cables to rich colorwork, delicate lace, and over-the-top embellishments in Nicky’s signature style. You’ll find step-by-step techniques on how to knit circles, both in the round and flat, plus expert guidance on customizing the projects, with unique cut-and-paste circle templates to design your own styles. With this groundbreaking book, you’ll never look at circles the same way. Once again, Nicky Epstein has outdone herself, opening up a world of creative possibilities with a gorgeous knitting reference that will have you knitting in the best of circles over and over.
Hotelier and guest lodge owner extraordinaire Nicky Fitzgerald poses the question, ‘How can you possibly feed guests who, when they are not on safari, are eating in the best restaurants on the planet?’ As she goes on to say, ‘It is a daunting challenge to prepare food in the middle of nowhere for guests who come from all four corners of the world, from different culinary cultures and who quite rightly expect the best of the best when it comes to choosing where to stay for their next holiday.’ Angama Mara not only rose to the challenge, it has exceeded it. This quirky anthology of recipes, reminiscences, anecdotes and stories was compiled and written in honour of the chefs at Angama Mara, and its guests who made the dream possible. The food and the breathtaking scenics were photographed by Sam Linsell, herself a well-known food stylist, food and travel photographer, and cookbook author.
A newlywed couple is cursed with an unsexy fate in this “fun, lively read [with] lots of humour and lots of laughs” (The French Village Diaries). Sex isn’t everything. At least, that’s what rock singer Casey and drummer Alex tell themselves when they are strangely unable to consummate their marriage on their wedding night. Or the following night. Or, in fact, any night. They simply can’t do it anymore, and it’s not for lack of trying. Ever more inventive and increasingly desperate when tried-and-tested strategies fail them, Casey and Alex experiment with every trick of the trade, with accessories and other aids—even sex therapy. But it’s as though they’ve been cursed. Will their love and friendship prove strong enough to withstand the trials and tribulations of a sexless marriage? Join Casey and Alex on a wild ride of self-discovery, love, laughter, and tears, where friends old and new produce a twist in the tale that will leave you breathless. “Hysterical . . . A true romantic comedy, and one for your summer reading list!” —Chick Lit Plus
With forewords from Angelina Jolie and Zahra Joya Every child has special human rights, from the moment they’re born until they grow up, including the rights to education, a safe home and a clean environment, as well as equality and protection from harm. Children even have the right to play! Packed with comic illustrations by Sue Cheung, fun facts and inspiring stories, plus useful resources and top tips, this book is a friendly, one-stop guide to all your rights.
Packed with valuable advice, this guide explores safe, natural alternatives to often hazardous and expensive conventional medical treatments for infertility.
The UK National Curriculum states that schools should reaffirm commitment to the virtues of truth, justice, honesty, trust and a sense of duty. This aim, loosely defined as 'character' education, is widely agreed to be critical to healthy development and a fair, just and democratic society. But what exactly is 'character' and how best to educate for it? This vitally important book, written by five internationally prominent figures and government advisers, aims to answer that question. Accessibly written and brimming with inspirational ideas, it looks at questions of research, education, government policy and societal engagement with character, including in the light of COVID-19 and the huge debt owed to the public services frontline. This book is a fascinating and vital read for parents, teachers and anyone concerned with social justice, developing the energy and passion of young people and working towards a better, stronger, fairer society. This could very well be the most important book you read all year!
A collection of the very best of Pam and Nicky Lintott's jelly roll quilt designs from their previous books. Quilt experts and best-selling authors, Pam and Nicky Lintott have chosen their favourite designs from their back catalogue of jelly roll books to create this exciting, bumper collection of 25 quick and easy jelly roll quilt patterns. The Lintotts have been designing jelly roll quilt patterns since these popular pre-cut fabric bundles were launched back in 2007 and the quilts in this collection are their very favourites chosen from their previous 13 quilt books. Jelly rolls are the ultimate pre-cut fabric bundle helping you to fast track your patchwork and quilting projects. These rolls of 21/2in wide strips of fabric all from one fabric line are the perfect tool to make sure your colours and prints coordinate. All of the patterns in this collection only require one jelly roll - sometimes with some additional yardage for the background and borders- making them perfect for those jelly rolls sitting on your shelves that are waiting to be used. And, if you don't have a jelly roll, you can follow the patterns by cutting your own 21/2in strips from your stash to get started. There are a wide range of jelly roll patterns to choose from including classic quilt designs like nine patch, log cabin and bargello, through to more contemporary quilt designs featuring chains and octagons. Pam and Nicky decided they wanted a variety of designs suitable for different skill levels so that the book would be for everyone no matter what your style is and how much experience you have in patchwork and quilting. Pam and Nicky are renowned for their easy-to-follow quilt patterns that always give great results and work up quickly, and this collection features the authors' favourites from all their books so you can enjoy them in one complete volume.
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.