The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally altered the global economic landscape, with the smallest and most vulnerable economies particularly hard hit. In the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, the crisis has cost lives and livelihoods. It has impacted both the demand and supply sides of the economy, posing difficult policy tradeoffs. Risks to macroeconomic stability are now growing. Each country will likely exit the crisis with an even greater need for reform. Escaping the Governance Trap: Economic Reform in the Northern Triangle provides a framework for understanding the challenges of those three Central American nations, proposing that the lack of governing capacity in each country is a crucial problem. This book argues that economic reforms can help the Northern Triangle countries escape their governance traps and identifies priority areas of economic reform. Sectors covered include fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy, financial access and deterrence, and structural reforms. It also highlights the role that stakeholders like the United States can play to help in these reform efforts, and how those outcomes affect the United States and the global community. All told, Escaping the Governance Trap provides an accessible, direct account of the Northern Triangle’s economic challenges and how to fix them.
The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally altered the global economic landscape, with the smallest and most vulnerable economies particularly hard hit. In the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, the crisis has cost lives and livelihoods. It has impacted both the demand and supply sides of the economy, posing difficult policy tradeoffs. Risks to macroeconomic stability are now growing. Each country will likely exit the crisis with an even greater need for reform. Escaping the Governance Trap: Economic Reform in the Northern Triangle provides a framework for understanding the challenges of those three Central American nations, proposing that the lack of governing capacity in each country is a crucial problem. This book argues that economic reforms can help the Northern Triangle countries escape their governance traps and identifies priority areas of economic reform. Sectors covered include fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy, financial access and deterrence, and structural reforms. It also highlights the role that stakeholders like the United States can play to help in these reform efforts, and how those outcomes affect the United States and the global community. All told, Escaping the Governance Trap provides an accessible, direct account of the Northern Triangle’s economic challenges and how to fix them.
How do market participants construct stable markets? Why do crises that seem inevitable after-the-fact routinely take market participants by surprise? What forces trigger financial panics, and why does uncertainty lead to market volatility? How do economic elites respond to financial distress, and why are some regulatory interventions more effective than others? Social Finance: Shadow Banking during the Global Financial Crisis answers these questions by presenting a new, economic conventions-based model of financial crises. This model emerges from a theoretical synthesis of several intellectual traditions, including Keynesian epistemology, Hyman Minsky’s asset market theory, economic sociology, and international relations theory. Social Finance uses this new paradigm to explain instability in the global shadow banking system during the global financial crisis. And it presents the results of interviews with some of the world’s leading investors – who saw over $2 trillion in annual order flows and managed over $160 billion in assets – to provide first-hand accounts of markets in crisis. Written in accessible prose, Social Finance will appeal to a broad audience of academics, policymakers, and practitioners interested in understanding the drivers of financial stability in the twenty-first century.
Rising debt vulnerabilities in low- and middle-income countries have rekindled interest in a Brady Plan-style mechanism to facilitate debt restructurings. To inform this debate, this paper analyzes the impact of the original Brady Plan by comparing macroeconomic outcomes of 10 Brady countries to 40 other emerging markets and developing economies. The paper finds that following the first Brady restructuring in 1990, Brady countries experienced substantial declines in public and external debt burdens and a sharp pick-up in output and productivity growth, anchored by a comparatively strong structural reform effort. The impact of the Brady Plan on overall debt burdens was many times greater than initial face value reductions, indicating the existence of a “Brady multiplier.” Brady restructurings took longer to complete than non-Brady restructurings. Today, similar mechanisms could be helpful in delivering meaningful debt stock reduction when solvency challenges are acute, but Brady-style mechanisms alone would not solve existing challenges in the sovereign debt landscape, including those related to creditor coordination, domestic barriers to economic reforms, and the increased prevalence of domestic debt, among others.
Since the August 2021 SDR allocation, the SDR interest rate has risen about 390 basis points through end-June 2023. This paper analyzes the impact of higher SDR interest rates on IMF members with negative net SDR Department positions. To do so, it constructs SDR forward curves at different points in time, from which the expected cost of servicing SDR obligations can be compared. Results show that the expected path of the SDR interest rate has shifted significantly upward since the 2021 allocation. Expected costs of charges (interest) in net present value terms are estimated to have more than tripled, while the grant element of SDRs has fallen to just below the IMF’s concessionality threshold. Despite this increase in cost, IMF members’ capacity to service SDR obligations remains generally adequate in both baseline and stress scenarios, though a few countries will need to carefully manage the rise in interest costs. Decisions to convert SDRs should consider interest rate risks, among other country-specific factors.
From August to October 2020, the Haitian authorities were successful at bringing about a sharp appreciation in the gourde/U.S. dollar exchange rate. This paper analyzes the factors behind this appreciation and its spillovers on the economy. It finds that foreign exchange surrender requirements had a statistically significant effect on the nominal exchange rate, while foreign exchange intervention by the central bank did not. Surrender requirements were also found to have raised trading costs and volatility in the foreign exchange market and contributed to the development of a wider parallel nominal exchange rate premium. This appreciation contributed to a decline in headline inflation during the episode while delivering some fuel subsidy-related savings to the government. Remittance-dependent households and exporters saw a drop in their purchasing power, and Haiti’s net external buffers were adversely affected. Following from these findings, the paper offers recommendations on ways to facilitate foreign exchange management and boost external sustainability while contributing to the central bank’s overall policy objectives.
How do market participants construct stable markets? Why do crises that seem inevitable after-the-fact routinely take market participants by surprise? What forces trigger financial panics, and why does uncertainty lead to market volatility? How do economic elites respond to financial distress, and why are some regulatory interventions more effective than others? Social Finance: Shadow Banking during the Global Financial Crisis answers these questions by presenting a new, economic conventions-based model of financial crises. This model emerges from a theoretical synthesis of several intellectual traditions, including Keynesian epistemology, Hyman Minsky’s asset market theory, economic sociology, and international relations theory. Social Finance uses this new paradigm to explain instability in the global shadow banking system during the global financial crisis. And it presents the results of interviews with some of the world’s leading investors – who saw over $2 trillion in annual order flows and managed over $160 billion in assets – to provide first-hand accounts of markets in crisis. Written in accessible prose, Social Finance will appeal to a broad audience of academics, policymakers, and practitioners interested in understanding the drivers of financial stability in the twenty-first century.
From the cinema to the recording studio to public festival grounds, the range and sonic richness of Indian cultures can be heard across the subcontinent. Sound articulates communal difference and embodies specific identities for multiple publics. This diversity of sounds has been and continues to be crucial to the ideological construction of a unifying postcolonial Indian nation-state. Indian Sound Cultures, Indian Sound Citizenship addresses the multifaceted roles sound plays in Indian cultures and media, and enacts a sonic turn in South Asian Studies by understanding sound in its own social and cultural contexts. “Scapes, Sites, and Circulations” considers the spatial and circulatory ways in which sound “happens” in and around Indian sound cultures, including diasporic cultures. “Voice” emphasizes voices that embody a variety of struggles and ambiguities, particularly around gender and performance. Finally, “Cinema Sound” make specific arguments about film sound in the Indian context, from the earliest days of talkie technology to contemporary Hindi films and experimental art installations. Integrating interdisciplinary scholarship at the nexus of sound studies and South Asian Studies by questions of nation/nationalism, postcolonialism, cinema, and popular culture in India, Indian Sound Cultures, Indian Sound Citizenship offers fresh and sophisticated approaches to the sonic world of the subcontinent.
Is the American West in Sergio Leone?s ?spaghetti westerns? the same American West we find in Douglas Coupland?s Generation X? In Jim Jarmusch?s movies? In Calexico?s music? Or is the American West, as this book tells us, a constantly moving, mutating idea within a complex global culture? And what, precisely (or better yet, imprecisely) does it mean? ø Using Gilles Deleuze and Fälix Guattari?s concept of the rhizome, Neil Campbell shows how the West (or west-ness) continually breaks away from a mainstream notion of American ?rootedness? and renews and transforms itself in various cultural forms. A region long traversed by various transient peoples (from tribes and conquerors to immigrants, traders, and trappers), the West reflects a mythic quest for settlement, permanence, and synthesis?even notions of a national or global identity?at odds with its rootless history, culture, and nature. Crossing the concept of ?roots? with ?routes,? this book shows how notions of the West?in representations ranging from literature and film to photography, music, and architectural theory?give expression to ideas about identity, nationhood, and belonging in a world increasingly defined by movement across time and borders. The Rhizomatic West offers a new vision of the American West as a hybrid, performative space, a staging place for myriad intersecting and constantly changing identities.
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