The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) provides geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) to support national security, both as a national intelligence and a combat support agency. In the post-9/11 world, the need for faster and more accurate geospatial intelligence is increasing. GEOINT uses imagery and geospatial data and information to provide knowledge for planning, decisions, and action. For example, data from satellites, pilotless aircraft and ground sensors are integrated with maps and other intelligence data to provide location information on a potential target. This report defines 12 hard problems in geospatial science that NGA must resolve in order to evolve their capabilities to meet future needs. Many of the hard research problems are related to integration of data collected from an ever-growing variety of sensors and non-spatial data sources, and analysis of spatial data collected during a sequence of time (spatio-temporal data). The report also suggests promising approaches in geospatial science and related disciplines for meeting these challenges. The results of this study are intended to help NGA prioritize geospatial science research directions.
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
The documents contained within this updated edition incorporate all amendments since the release of Winter 2012 version through February 26, 2016 and verified against the United States Code maintained by the United States Library of Congress and Westlaw private company. The documents cited in this volume range from principles of professional ethics and transparency for the Intelligence Community, several Acts including the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 that includes information sharing, privacy, and civil liberties, and security clearances, plus Counterintelligence and Security Enhancements Act of 1994, Classified Information Procedures Act, Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978, Cybersecurity Act of 2015, numerous executive orders, presidential policy directives, and more. American citizens, law enforcement, especially U.S. Federal agency personnel that engage with intelligence surveillance, classified information, and national security efforts may be interested in this updated edition. Additionally, attorneys, civil servants involved within information technology departments, and records management may also be interested in this resource. Students pursuing courses in the areas of Ethics in Criminal Justice, Computer Forensics, Criminal Law in Criminal Justice, Homeland Security and Terrorism, Information Storage and Retrieval, Computer Security, or Military Science may be interested in this reference for research. Lastly, public, special, and academic libraries may want this legal reference available for their patrons. Related products: Intelligence Community Legal Reference Book, Winter 2012 - Limited quantities while supplies last - can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/041-015-00278-3 Intelligence and Espionage resources collection is available here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/security-defense-law-enforcement/intelligence-espionage Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice topical books can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/security-defense-law-enforcement/law-enforcement-criminal-justice Mail & Communications Security collection is available here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/security-defense-law-enforcement/mail-communications-security
Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities have expanded situation awareness for U.S. forces, provided for more precise combat effects, and enabled better decision making both during conflicts and in peacetime, and reliance on ISR capabilities is expected to increase in the future. ISR capabilities are critical to 3 of the 12 Service Core Functions of the U.S. Air Force: namely, Global Integrated ISR (GIISR) and the ISR components of Cyberspace Superiority and Space Superiority, and contribute to all others. In response to a request from the Air Force for ISR and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Science, Technology, and Engineering, the National Research Council formed the Committee on Examination of the Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Capability Planning and Analysis (CP&A) Process. In this report, the committee reviews the current approach to the Air Force corporate planning and programming process for ISR capability generation; examines carious analytical methods, processes, and models for large-scale, complex domains like ISR; and identifies the best practices for the Air Force. In Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments, the current approach is analyzed and the best practices for the Air Force corporate planning and programming processed for ISR are recommended. This report also recommends improvements and changes to existing analytical tools, methods, roles and responsibilities, and organization and management that would be required to ensure the Air Force corporate planning and programming process for ISR is successful in addressing all Joint, National, and Coalition partner's needs.
This report reviews and updates the 2002 National Research Council report, Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). This report also assesses various topics, including: the plans to maintain the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile without nuclear-explosion testing; the U.S. capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions; commitments necessary to sustain the stockpile and the U.S. and international monitoring systems; and potential technical advances countries could achieve through evasive testing and unconstrained testing. Sustaining these technical capabilities will require action by the National Nuclear Security Administration, with the support of others, on a strong scientific and engineering base maintained through a continuing dynamic of experiments linked with analysis, a vigorous surveillance program, adequate ratio of performance margins to uncertainties. This report also emphasizes the use of modernized production facilities and a competent and capable workforce with a broad base of nuclear security expertise.
Recent disclosures about the bulk collection of domestic phone call records and other signals intelligence programs have stimulated widespread debate about the implications of such practices for the civil liberties and privacy of Americans. In the wake of these disclosures, many have identified a need for the intelligence community to engage more deeply with outside privacy experts and stakeholders. At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to address the privacy implications of emerging technologies, public and individual preferences and attitudes toward privacy, and ethical approaches to data collection and use. This report summarizes discussions between experts from academia and the private sector and from the intelligence community on private sector best practices and privacy research results.
High-performance electronics are key to the U.S. Air Force's (USAF's) ability to deliver lethal effects at the time and location of their choosing. Additionally, these electronic systems must be able to withstand not only the rigors of the battlefield but be able to perform the needed mission while under cyber and electronic warfare (EW) attack. This requires a high degree of assurance that they are both physically reliable and resistant to adversary actions throughout their life cycle from design to sustainment. In 2016, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop titled Optimizing the Air Force Acquisition Strategy of Secure and Reliable Electronic Components, and released a summary of the workshop. This publication serves as a follow-on to provide recommendations to the USAF acquisition community.
The ability of U.S. military forces to field new weapons systems quickly and to contain their cost growth has declined significantly over the past few decades. There are many causes including increased complexity, funding instability, bureaucracy, and more diverse user demands, but a view that is gaining more acceptance is that better systems engineering (SE) could help shorten development time. To investigate this assertion in more detail, the US Air Force asked the NRC to examine the role that SE can play during the acquisition life cycle to address root causes of program failure especially during pre-milestone A and early program phases. This book presents an assessment of the relationship between SE and program outcome; an examination of the SE workforce; and an analysis of SE functions and guidelines. The latter includes a definition of the minimum set of SE processes that need to be accounted for during project development.
In the coming years, complex domestic and international environments and challenges to national security will continue. Intelligence analysts and the intelligence community will need access to the appropriate tools and developing knowledge about threats to national security in order to provide the best information to policy makers. Research and knowledge from the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) can help inform the work of intelligence analysis; however, in the past, bringing important findings from research to bear on the day-to-day work of intelligence analysis has been difficult. In order to understand how knowledge from science can be directed and applied to help the intelligence community fulfill its critical responsibilities, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will undertake a 2-year survey of the social and behavioral sciences. To launch this discussion, a summit designed to highlight cutting-edge research and identify future directions for research in a few areas of the social and behavioral sciences was held in October 2016. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the summit.
It has, improbably, been called uncommonly lucid, even riveting by The New York Times, and it was a finalist for the 2004 National Book Awards nonfiction honor. It is a literally chilling read, especially in its minute-by-minute description of the events of the morning of 9/11 inside the Twin Towers.It is The 9/11 Commission Report, which was, before its publication, perhaps one of the most anticipated government reports of all time, and has been since an unlikely bestseller. The official statement by the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States-which was instituted in late 2002 and chaired by former New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean-it details what went wrong on that day (such as intelligence failures), what went right (the heroic response of emergency services and self-organizing civilians), and how to avert similar future attacks.Highlighting evidence from the day, from airport surveillance footage of the terrorists to phone calls from the doomed flights, and offering details that have otherwise gone unheard, this is an astonishing firsthand document of contemporary history. While controversial in parts-it has been criticized for failing to include testimony from key individuals, and it completely omits any mention of the mysterious collapse of WTC 7-it is nevertheless an essential record of one of the most transformational events of modern times.
Nearly three thousand people died in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. In Lower Manhattan, on a field in Pennsylvania, and along the banks of the Potomoc, the United States suffered the single largest loss of life from an enemy attack on its soil. In November 2002 the United States Congress and President George W. Bush established by law the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, also known as the 9/11 Commission. This independent, bipartisan panel was directed to examine the facts and circumstances surrounding the September 11 attacks, identify lessons learned, and provide recommendations to safeguard against future acts of terrorism. This volume is the authorized edition of the Commission's final report.
Among its key responsibilities, the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) plans and synchronizes operations against terrorist networks. At any given moment, SOF are likely to be engaged in some state of the planning or execution of special operations in many countries around the world, spanning a wide range of environments and mission. SOF therefore must be capable of operating in environments ranging from tropical jungle to arctic, maritime to desert, subterranean to mountainous, and rural to urban. Within this vast range additional factors may influence technical and operational requirements including weather, topography, bathymetry, geology, flora, fauna, and human population density. All of these factors must be weighed in terms of the challenges they pose to supporting communications and operational security. In short, SOF must maintain the capability to operate globally, in any environment, angainst any threats that can be countered by its unique capabilities. Sensing and Supporting Communications Capabilities for Special Operations Forces focuses primarily on the key core SOF task of special reconnaissance, to determine SOF-specific sensing and supporting communications needs and mapping them to existing and emerging technologies. The book discusses preliminary observations, issuees, and challenges, and identifies additional capabilities and technology areas that should be addressed.
The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
After our examination of the new strategic environment of the next quarter century (Phase I) and of a strategy to address it (Phase II), this Commission concludes that significant changes must be made in the structures and processes of the U.S. national security apparatus. Our institutional base is in decline and must be rebuilt. Otherwise, the United States risks losing its global influence and critical leadership role. We offer recommendations for organizational change in five key areas: ensuring the security of the American homeland; recapitalizing America's strengths in science and education; redesigning key institutions of the Executive Branch; overhauling the U.S. government's military and civilian personnel systems; and reorganizing Congress's role in national security affairs"--P. xiii.
The architecture of the Nation's digital infrastructure, based largely upon the Internet, is not secure or resilient." It's a horrifying wakeup call that bluntly opens this report on one of the most serious national security and economic threats the United States-and, indeed, the world-faces in the 21st century. And it sets the stage for the national dialogue on cybersecurity it hopes to launch. Prepared by the U.S. National Security Council-which was founded by President Harry S. Truman to advise the Oval Office on national security and foreign policy-this official government account explores: the vulnerabilities of the digital infrastructure of the United States what we can do to protect it against cybercrime and cyberterrorism how to protect civil liberties and personal privacy in cyberspace why a citizenry educated about and aware of cybersecurity risks is vital the shape of the public-private partnership all these efforts will require Just as the United States took the lead in creating the open, flexible structures of the early Internet, it must now take the initiative in ensuring that our digital networks are as secure as they can be, without stifling the unprecedented freedom of opportunity and access the information revolution has afforded us all. This report is the roadmap for making that happen, and it is required reading for anyone who works or plays in the 21st-century digital world: that is, all of us.
The primary function of the intelligence analyst is to make sense of information about the world, but the way analysts do that work will look profoundly different a decade from now. Technological changes will bring both new advances in conducting analysis and new risks related to technologically based activities and communications around the world. Because these changes are virtually inevitable, the Intelligence Community will need to make sustained collaboration with researchers in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) a key priority if it is to adapt to these changes in the most productive ways. A Decadal Survey Of The Social and Behavioral Sciences provides guidance for a 10-year research agenda. This report identifies key opportunities in SBS research for strengthening intelligence analysis and offers ideas for integrating the knowledge and perspectives of researchers from these fields into the planning and design of efforts to support intelligence analysis.
The National Research Council (NRC) was asked by the National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) to convene a committee to review the curriculum and syllabi for their proposed master of science degree in science and technology intelligence. The NRC was asked to review the material provided by the NDIC and offer advice and recommendations regarding the program's structure and goals of the Master of Science and Technology Intelligence (MS&TI) program. The Committee for the Review of the Master's Degree Program for Science and Technology Professionals convened in May 2011, received extensive briefings and material from the NDIC faculty and administrators, and commenced a detailed review of the material. This letter report contains the findings and recommendations of the committee. Review of the National Defense Intelligence College's Master's Degree in Science and Technology Intelligence centers on two general areas. First, the committee found that the biological sciences and systems engineering were underrepresented in the existing program structure. Secondly, the committee recommends that the NDIC faculty restructure the program and course learning objectives to focus more specifically on science and technology, with particular emphasis on the empirical measurement of student achievement. Given the dynamic and ever-changing nature of science and technology, the syllabi should continue to evolve as change occurs.
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