The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
The Bulk Collection of Signals Intelligence: Technical Options study is a result of an activity called for in Presidential Policy Directive 28 (PPD-28), issued by President Obama in January 2014, to evaluate U.S. signals intelligence practices. The directive instructed the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to produce a report within one year "assessing the feasibility of creating software that would allow the intelligence community more easily to conduct targeted information acquisition rather than bulk collection." ODNI asked the National Research Council (NRC)-the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering-to conduct a study, which began in June 2014, to assist in preparing a response to the President. Over the ensuing months, a committee of experts appointed by the Research Council produced the report.
This National Intelligence Strategy (NIS) provides the Intelligence Community (IC) with strategic direction from the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) for the next four years. It supports the national security priorities outlined in the National Security Strategy as well as other national strategies. In executing the NIS, all IC activities must be responsive to national security priorities and must comply with the Constitution, applicable laws and statutes, and Congressional oversight requirements. All our activities will be conducted consistent with our guiding principles: We advance our national security, economic strength, and technological superiority by delivering distinctive, timely insights with clarity, objectivity, and independence; we achieve unparalleled access to protected information and exquisite understanding of our adversaries' intentions and capabilities; we maintain global awareness for strategic warning; and we leverage what others do well, adding unique value for the Nation.This, the fourth iteration of the National Intelligence Strategy (NIS), is our guide for the next four years to better serve the needs of our customers, to help them make informed decisions on national security issues, and to ultimately keep our Nation safe. The NIS is designed to advance our mission and align our objectives with national strategies, and it provides an opportunity to communicate national priority objectives to our workforce, partners, oversight, customers, and also to our fellow citizens. We face significant changes in the domestic and global environment; we must be ready to meet 21st century challenges and to recognize emerging threats and opportunities. To navigate today's turbulent and complex strategic environment, we must do things differently. This means we must: Increase integration and coordination of our intelligence activities to achieve best effect and value in executing our mission, Bolster innovation to constantly improve our work, Better leverage strong, unique, and valuable partnerships to support and enable national security outcomes, and Increase transparency while protecting national security information to enhance accountability and public trust.This National Intelligence Strategy increases emphasis in these areas. It better integrates counterintelligence and security, better focuses the IC on addressing cyber threats, and sets clear direction on privacy, civil liberties and transparency.
This report was prepared by the U.S. National Intelligence Council to show how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Given many possible futures, it offers a range of possibilities. It will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. The report examines a small number of variables that will have a disproportionate influence on future events. (Note: this is a B&W reprint of the color original.)
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
2017 Report of the National Intelligence Council, Promise Or Peril of the Future, War, Population, Energy, Climate, Terrorism, Populist Anti-Establishment Politics
2017 Report of the National Intelligence Council, Promise Or Peril of the Future, War, Population, Energy, Climate, Terrorism, Populist Anti-Establishment Politics
This edition of Global Trends - issued in early 2017 - revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train. Contents: 1. The Future Summarized * 2. The Map of the Future * 3. Trends Transforming the Global Landscape * 4. Near Future: Tensions Are Rising * 5. Three Scenarios for the Distant Future: Islands, Orbits, Communities * 6. What the Scenarios Teach Us: Fostering Opportunities Through Resilience * 7. Annex: The Next Five Years by Region * 8. Annex: Key Global Trends Thinking about the future is vital but hard. Crises keep intruding, making it all but impossible to look beyond daily headlines to what lies over the horizon. In those circumstances, thinking "outside the box," to use the cliche, too often loses out to keeping up with the inbox. That is why every four years the National Intelligence Council (NIC) undertakes a major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world before us over the next two decades. This version, the sixth in the series, is titled, "Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress," and we are proud of it. It may look like a report, but it is really an invitation, an invitation to discuss, debate and inquire further about how the future could unfold. Certainly, we do not pretend to have the definitive "answer." Long-term thinking is critical to framing strategy. The Global Trends series pushes us to reexamine key assumptions, expectations, and uncertainties about the future. In a very messy and interconnected world, a longer perspective requires us to ask hard questions about which issues and choices will be most consequential in the decades ahead-even if they don't necessarily generate the biggest headlines. A longer view also is essential because issues like terrorism, cyberattacks, biotechnology, and climate change invoke high stakes and will require sustained collaboration to address. Peering into the future can be scary and surely is humbling. Events unfold in complex ways for which our brains are not naturally wired. Economic, political, social, technological, and cultural forces collide in dizzying ways, so we can be led to confuse recent, dramatic events with the more important ones. It is tempting, and usually fair, to assume people act "rationally," but leaders, groups, mobs, and masses can behave very differently-and unexpectedly-under similar circumstances. For instance, we had known for decades how brittle most regimes in the Middle East were, yet some erupted in the Arab Spring in 2011 and others did not. Experience teaches us how much history unfolds through cycles and shifts, and still human nature commonly expects tomorrow to be pretty much like today-which is usually the safest bet on the future until it is not. I always remind myself that between Mr. Reagan's "evil empire" speech and the demise of that empire, the Soviet Union, was only a scant decade, a relatively short time even in a human life.
The 2017 report, Global Trends-Paradox of Progress, is the sixth in the Global Trends series released by the U.S. National Intelligence Council. The inspiration for this report is the "prosperity presumption," the assumption among many that with increased prosperity other good things will follow: happiness, democracy, and peace. But the paradox of progress is that with the 2008 global financial crisis, the Arab Spring, and the rise of populist movements, the world is also becoming a more dangerous place. This report explores three scenarios or pathways for the next twenty years: - "Islands"-scenario investigates a restructuring of the global economy, with slow or no growth, a popular pushback against globalization, technology transforming work, and increased political instability. - "Orbits"-scenario explores a future of tensions created by competing major powers seeking their own spheres of influence while attempting to maintain stability at home. This scenario includes the trend of rising nationalism and the use of a nuclear weapon. - "Communities"-scenario describes how the diminishing capacity of governments open space for local governments and private actors. It will become harder for governments to control their societies. Although these three scenarios seem gloomy, the same trends that create near-term risks could also create long-term opportunities. This report asserts that those states and societies that will be using the full potential of all individuals will be the most successful. The main report is followed by extensive annexes with five-year forecasts for each region in the world, including the Arctic and space, and key global trends on how people live, create, prosper, think, govern, and fight. Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, policymakers, journalists, and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.
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