The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
The Bulk Collection of Signals Intelligence: Technical Options study is a result of an activity called for in Presidential Policy Directive 28 (PPD-28), issued by President Obama in January 2014, to evaluate U.S. signals intelligence practices. The directive instructed the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) to produce a report within one year "assessing the feasibility of creating software that would allow the intelligence community more easily to conduct targeted information acquisition rather than bulk collection." ODNI asked the National Research Council (NRC)-the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering-to conduct a study, which began in June 2014, to assist in preparing a response to the President. Over the ensuing months, a committee of experts appointed by the Research Council produced the report.
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
This report was prepared by the U.S. National Intelligence Council to show how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Given many possible futures, it offers a range of possibilities. It will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. The report examines a small number of variables that will have a disproportionate influence on future events. (Note: this is a B&W reprint of the color original.)
This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.
Global Trends project engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance."--Editor.
On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences-based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the workshop was to discuss the best ways to take methods and tools from behavioral science and apply them to work in intelligence operations. More specifically, the workshop focused on the issue of field evaluation-the testing of these methods and tools in the context in which they will be used in order to determine if they are effective in real-world settings. This book is a summary and synthesis of the two days of presentations and discussions that took place during the workshop. The workshop participants included invited speakers and experts from a number of areas related to the behavioral sciences and the intelligence community. The discussions covered such ground as the obstacles to field evaluation of behavioral science tools and methods, the importance of field evaluation, and various lessons learned from experience with field evaluation in other areas.
The 2017 report, Global Trends-Paradox of Progress, is the sixth in the Global Trends series released by the U.S. National Intelligence Council. The inspiration for this report is the "prosperity presumption," the assumption among many that with increased prosperity other good things will follow: happiness, democracy, and peace. But the paradox of progress is that with the 2008 global financial crisis, the Arab Spring, and the rise of populist movements, the world is also becoming a more dangerous place. This report explores three scenarios or pathways for the next twenty years: - "Islands"-scenario investigates a restructuring of the global economy, with slow or no growth, a popular pushback against globalization, technology transforming work, and increased political instability. - "Orbits"-scenario explores a future of tensions created by competing major powers seeking their own spheres of influence while attempting to maintain stability at home. This scenario includes the trend of rising nationalism and the use of a nuclear weapon. - "Communities"-scenario describes how the diminishing capacity of governments open space for local governments and private actors. It will become harder for governments to control their societies. Although these three scenarios seem gloomy, the same trends that create near-term risks could also create long-term opportunities. This report asserts that those states and societies that will be using the full potential of all individuals will be the most successful. The main report is followed by extensive annexes with five-year forecasts for each region in the world, including the Arctic and space, and key global trends on how people live, create, prosper, think, govern, and fight. Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, policymakers, journalists, and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.
The National Research Council (NRC) was asked by the National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) to convene a committee to review the curriculum and syllabi for their proposed master of science degree in science and technology intelligence. The NRC was asked to review the material provided by the NDIC and offer advice and recommendations regarding the program's structure and goals of the Master of Science and Technology Intelligence (MS&TI) program. The Committee for the Review of the Master's Degree Program for Science and Technology Professionals convened in May 2011, received extensive briefings and material from the NDIC faculty and administrators, and commenced a detailed review of the material. This letter report contains the findings and recommendations of the committee. Review of the National Defense Intelligence College's Master's Degree in Science and Technology Intelligence centers on two general areas. First, the committee found that the biological sciences and systems engineering were underrepresented in the existing program structure. Secondly, the committee recommends that the NDIC faculty restructure the program and course learning objectives to focus more specifically on science and technology, with particular emphasis on the empirical measurement of student achievement. Given the dynamic and ever-changing nature of science and technology, the syllabi should continue to evolve as change occurs.
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