What follows is a new edition of the second in a series of three books providing an account of the mathematical development of demography. The first, Introduction to the Mathematics of Population (Addison-Wesley, 1968), gave the mathematical background. The second, the original of the present volume, was concerned with demography itself. The third in the sequence, Mathematics Through Problems (with John Beekman; Springer Verlag, 1982), supplemented the first two with an ordered sequence of problems and answers. Readers interested in the mathematics may consult the earlier book, republished with revisions by Addison-Wesley in 1977 and still in print. There is no overlap in subject matter between Applied Mathematical Demography and the Introduction to the Mathematics of Population. Three new chapters have been added, dealing with matters that have come recently into the demographic limelight: multi-state calculations, family demogra phy, and heterogeneity. vii PREFACE This book is concerned with commonsense questions about, for instance, the effect of a lowered death rate on the proportion of old people or the effect of abortions on the birth rate. The answers that it reaches are not always commonsense, and we will meet instances in which intuition has to be adjusted to accord with what the mathematics shows to be the case.
Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by Kenneth Wachter and Hervé Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.
What follows is a new edition of the second in a series of three books providing an account of the mathematical development of demography. The first, Introduction to the Mathematics of Population (Addison-Wesley, 1968), gave the mathematical background. The second, the original of the present volume, was concerned with demography itself. The third in the sequence, Mathematics Through Problems (with John Beekman; Springer Verlag, 1982), supplemented the first two with an ordered sequence of problems and answers. Readers interested in the mathematics may consult the earlier book, republished with revisions by Addison-Wesley in 1977 and still in print. There is no overlap in subject matter between Applied Mathematical Demography and the Introduction to the Mathematics of Population. Three new chapters have been added, dealing with matters that have come recently into the demographic limelight: multi-state calculations, family demogra phy, and heterogeneity. vii PREFACE This book is concerned with commonsense questions about, for instance, the effect of a lowered death rate on the proportion of old people or the effect of abortions on the birth rate. The answers that it reaches are not always commonsense, and we will meet instances in which intuition has to be adjusted to accord with what the mathematics shows to be the case.
Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by Kenneth Wachter and Hervé Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.
The book that follows is an experiment in the teaching of population theory and analysis. A sequence of problems where each is a self-contained puzzle, and the successful solution of each which puts the student in a position to tackle the next, is a means of securing the active participation of the learner and so the mastery of a technical subject. How far our questions are the exciting puzzles at which we aimed, and how far the sequence constitutes a rounded course in demography, must be left to the user to judge. One test of a good problem is whether a solution, that may take hours of cogitation, is immediately recognizable once it comes to mind. While algebraic manipulation is required throughout, we have tried to emphasize problems in which there is some substantive point-a conclusion regarding population that can be put into words. Our title, Demography Through Problems, reflects our intention of leading the reader who will actively commit him-or herself through a sequence that will not only teach definitions-in itself a trivial matter-but sharpen intuition on the way that populations behave.
Many social policies of the 1960s and 1970s, designed to overcome poverty and provide a decent minimum standard of living for all Americans, ran into trouble in the 1980s--with politicians, with social scientists, and with the American people. Nathan Glazer has been a leading analyst and critic of those measures. Here he looks back at what went wrong, arguing that our social policies, although targeted effectively on some problems, ignored others that are equally important and contributed to the weakening of the structures--family, ethnic and neighborhood ties, commitment to work--that form the foundations of a healthy society. What keeps society going, after all, is that most people feel they should work, however well they might do without working, and that they should take care of their families, however attractive it might appear on occasion to desert them. Glazer proposes new kinds of social policies that would strengthen social structures and traditional restraints. Thus, to reinforce the incentive to work, he would attach to low-income jobs the same kind of fringe benefits--health insurance, social security, vacations with pay--that now make higher-paying jobs attractive and that paradoxically are already available in some form to those on welfare. More generally, he would reorient social policy to fit more comfortably with deep and abiding tendencies in American political culture: toward volunteerism, privatization, and decentralization. After a long period of quiescence, social policy and welfare reform are once again becoming salient issues on the national political agenda. Nathan Glazer's deep knowledge and considered judgment, distilled in this book, will be a source of advice, ideas, and inspiration for citizens and policymakers alike.
Drawing data from official sources in 60 countries, as well as from the United Nations and the World Bank, this compendium of statistical information on population, fertility, and mortality treats every one of the UN-recognized countries in at least summary form. With data from 1950 onward and projections through 2020, this volume extends the dataset of Nathan Keyfitz and Wilhelm Flieger's landmark work, World Population: An Analysis of Vital Data (1968), with virtually no overlap. All the life tables, standardized rates, and projections have been generated by uniform methods to ensure easy comparison among countries. More than 800 charts provide a foundation for analyzing the radical demographic changes now taking place: the historic lows of fertility in Germany and other industrial countries, Africa's persistently high fertility, and the worldwide extension of life expectancy. The product of cautious and painstaking labor, this work promises to be an important resource for further demographic research as well as a valuable comparative resource for studies of the status of global social welfare and the environment.
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