Natalija Novta's Books

The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat

By: Weicheng Lian,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Mr.Yannick Timmer,Petia Topalova

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The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat

By: Weicheng Lian,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Mr.Yannick Timmer,Petia Topalova

Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment fell dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Using cross-country and sectoral data, we show that the decline in the relative price of tangible tradable capital goods provided a significant impetus to the capital deepening that took place during the same time period. The broad-based decline in the relative price of machinery and equipment, in turn, was driven by the faster productivity growth in the capital goods producing sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and deeper trade integration, which induced domestic producers to lower prices and increase their efficiency. Our findings suggest an additional channel through which rising trade tensions and sluggish productivity could threaten real investment growth going forward.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

149832343X

ISBN 13

9781498323437

Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

By: Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva

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Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

By: Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva

We examine the extent to which declining manufacturing employment may have contributed to increasing inequality in advanced economies. This contribution is typically small, except in the United States. We explore two possible explanations: the high initial manufacturing wage premium and the high level of income inequality. The manufacturing wage premium declined between the 1980s and the 2000s in the United States, but it does not explain the contemporaneous rise in inequality. Instead, high income inequality played a large role. This is because manufacturing job loss typically implies a move to the service sector, for which the worker is not skilled at first and accepts a low-skill wage. On average, the associated wage cut increases with the overall level of income inequality in the country, conditional on moving down in the wage distribution. Based on a stylized scenario, we calculate that the movement of workers to low-skill service sector jobs can account for about a quarter of the increase in inequality between the 1980s and the 2000s in the United States. Had the U.S. income distribution been more equal, only about one tenth of the actual increase in inequality could have been attributed to the loss of manufacturing jobs, according to our simulations.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513515004

ISBN 13

9781513515007

Women at Work in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Natalija Novta,Joyce Wong

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Women at Work in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Natalija Novta,Joyce Wong

Women across the world remain an underutilized resource in the labor force. Participation in the labor force averages around 80 percent for men but only 50 percent for women – nearly half of women’s productive potential remains untapped compared to one-fifth for men. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), as a region, saw the largest gains in female labor force participation (LFP) in the world during the last two decades. Women in LAC are becoming increasingly active in paid work, closing the gap with men and catching up to their counterparts in advanced economies at an impressive rate. In this paper, we document the recent trends in female LFP and female education in the LAC region, discuss the size of potential gains to GDP from increasing female LFP and policies which could be deployed towards this goal.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475584350

ISBN 13

9781475584356

Calculating Trade in Value Added

By: Aqib Aslam,Natalija Novta,Fabiano Rodrigues-Bastos

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Calculating Trade in Value Added

By: Aqib Aslam,Natalija Novta,Fabiano Rodrigues-Bastos

This paper sets out the key concepts necessary to calculate trade in value added using input-output tables. We explain the basic structure of an input-output table and the matrix algebra behind the computation of trade in value added statistics. Specifically, we compute measures of domestic value-added, foreign value added, and forward and backward linkages, as well as measures of both a country’s participation and position in global value chains. We work in detail with an example of a global input-output table for 3 countries each with 4 sectors, provided by the Eora Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) database. The aim is to provide an introduction to the analysis of global value chains for use in policy work. An accompanying suite of Matlab codes are provided that can be used with the full set of Eora MRIO tables.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484314484

ISBN 13

9781484314487

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

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The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484363027

ISBN 13

9781484363027

Unlocking Access to Climate Finance for Pacific Island Countries

By: Ms. Manal Fouad,Natalija Novta,Gemma Preston,Todd Schneider,Sureni Weerathunga

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Unlocking Access to Climate Finance for Pacific Island Countries

By: Ms. Manal Fouad,Natalija Novta,Gemma Preston,Todd Schneider,Sureni Weerathunga

This departmental paper provides an in-depth overview of access to climate finance for Pacific Island Countries, evaluating successes and challenges faced by countries and proposes a way forward to unlock access to climate funds.

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103

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513594222

ISBN 13

9781513594224

Public Employment and Compensation Reform During Times of Fiscal Consolidation

By: Lorenzo Forni,Natalija Novta

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Public Employment and Compensation Reform During Times of Fiscal Consolidation

By: Lorenzo Forni,Natalija Novta

This paper compiles and compares recent and past measures introduced to contain the public wage bill in a number of emerging and advanced economies to assess their effectiveness in bringing down expenditure in a sustained way. In the aftermath of the Great Recession a number of countries have approved measures on the wage bill as part of fiscal consolidation efforts. These recent episodes are compared to past cases implemented in advanced economies over the period 1979–2009. Findings suggest that public wage bill consolidation episodes pre and post 2009 are similar in many respects. Moreover, typically countries that were able to achieve more sustained reductions in the wage bill have implemented to larger extent structural measures, and/or these measures were accompanied with substantial social dialogue and consensus.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498375197

ISBN 13

9781498375191

A Balancing Act

Reform Options for Paraguay’s Fiscal Responsibility Law

By: Mr.Antonio David,Natalija Novta

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A Balancing Act

Reform Options for Paraguay’s Fiscal Responsibility Law

By: Mr.Antonio David,Natalija Novta

Paraguay faces a trade-off between building fiscal credibility and amending the existing fiscal rule to accommodate infrastructure investment and provide space for countercyclical policies. In this paper, we discuss several alternative fiscal rules for Paraguay and present simulations of debt trajectories in each case, assuming a baseline and three deterministic shock scenarios. We provide a supplementary Excel file to replicate debt simulations under different fiscal rules. The results suggest that potential modifications to make the fiscal rules more flexible in Paraguay should be accompanied by a number of safeguards that enhance credibility of the fiscal anchor and preserve sustainability.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484301781

ISBN 13

9781484301784

The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict

By: Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva

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The Macroeconomic Costs of Conflict

By: Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva

Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.

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ISBN 10

1513547755

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9781513547756

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Claudio Baccianti,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

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Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Claudio Baccianti,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical evidence and simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model reveal that good policies can help countries cope with negative weather shocks to some extent. However, none of the adaptive policies we consider can fully eliminate the large aggregate output losses that countries with hot climates experience due to rising temperatures. Only curbing greenhouse gas emissions—which would mitigate further global warming—could limit the adverse macroeconomic consequences of weather shocks in a long-lasting way.

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