Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho's Books

Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility

Evidence From Brazil

By: Mr.Marcello M. Estevão,Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho

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Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility

Evidence From Brazil

By: Mr.Marcello M. Estevão,Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho

Even though institutions are created to protect workers, they may interfere with labor market functioning, raise unemployment, and end up being circumvented by informal contracts. This paper uses Brazilian microeconomic data to show that the institutional changes introduced by the 1988 Constitution lowered the sensitivity of real wages to changes in labor market slack and could have contributed to the ensuing higher rates of unemployment in the country. Moreover, the paper shows that states that faced higher increases in informality (i.e., illegal work contracts) following the introduction of the new Constitution tended to have smaller drops in wage responsiveness to macroeconomic conditions, thus suggesting that informality serves as a escape valve to an over-regulated environment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475502362

ISBN 13

9781475502367

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

By: Mr.Marcos Chamon,Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho

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Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

By: Mr.Marcos Chamon,Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho

This paper estimates the household income growth rates implied by food demand in a sample of urban Chinese households in 1993–2005. Our estimates, based on Engel curves for food consumption, indicate an average per capita income growth of 6.8 percent per year in 1993–2005. This figure is slightly larger than the 5.9 percent per year obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. We attribute this discrepancy to a small bias in the CPI, which is of a similar magnitude to the one often associated with the CPI in the United States. Our estimates indicate stronger gains among poorer households, suggesting that urban inflation up to 2005 in China was “pro-poor,” in the sense that the increase in the cost of living for poorer households was smaller than for the average one.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475552025

ISBN 13

9781475552027

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis

An Empirical Assessment

By: Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho

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Inflation Targeting and the Crisis

An Empirical Assessment

By: Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August 2008, IT countries lowered nominal policy rates by more and this loosening translated into an even larger differential in real interest rates relative to other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and saw sharp real depreciations not associated with a greater perception of risk by markets. We also find some weak evidence that IT countries did better on unemployment rates and advanced IT countries have had relatively stronger industrial production performance. Finally, we find that advanced IT countries had higher GDP growth rates than their non-IT peers, but find no such difference for emerging countries or the full sample.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451963041

ISBN 13

9781451963045

Macroprudential Policies in Response to External Financial Shocks

By: Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho,DingXuan Ng

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Macroprudential Policies in Response to External Financial Shocks

By: Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho,DingXuan Ng

This paper examines how countries use Macroprudential Policies (MaPs) to respond to external shocks such as US monetary policy surprises or fluctuations in capital flows. Constructing a model of a small open economy with financial frictions and a MaP authority that adjusts loan to value (LTV) ratio limits on borrowers and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) limits on banks, we show that using MaPs where stochastic external financial shocks are present entails a trade-off between macro-financial volatility and GDP growth. The terms of the trade-off are a function of a few country characteristics that amplify financial channels of external monetary shocks. Estimating MaP reaction functions for a panel of 41 countries in the period 2000–2017, we find that countercyclical macroprudential policy in response to surprise US monetary tightening is more likely for countries with net short currency mismatches (that is, foreign currency denominated liabilities larger than foreign currency denominated assets), consistent with the model’s predictions. The paper also finds that domestic credit and interest rates are more insulated from US monetary tightening for countries that employ MaPs countercyclically.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400230035

Book's by Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho

Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility

Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis

Macroprudential Policies in Response to External Financial Shocks

Macroprudential Policies in Response to External Financial Shocks

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