Mr.G. Terrier's Books

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

By: Mr.Julio Escolano,Laura Jaramillo,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados,Mr.G. Terrier

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How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

By: Mr.Julio Escolano,Laura Jaramillo,Mr.Carlos Mulas-Granados,Mr.G. Terrier

The sizeable fiscal consolidation required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratios in several countries in the aftermath of the global crisis raises a crucial question on its feasibility. To answer this question, we rely on historical evidence from a sample of 91 adjustment episodes of countries during 1945–2012 that needed and wanted to adjust in order to stabilize debt to GDP. We find that, in at least half the cases, countries improved their cyclically adjusted primary balances by close to 5 percent of GDP. We also observe that, while countries typically make substantial efforts to stabilize debt, once this objective is achieved, they tend to ease their primary balances and do not necessarily get back to their initial lower debt-to-GDP ratio. We find that consolidations tended to be larger when the initial deficit was high and adjustment efforts were sustained over time. Fiscal adjustments also tended to be larger when accompanied by an easing of monetary conditions and, to a lesser extent, by an improvement in credit conditions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484378865

ISBN 13

9781484378861

Deflation and Public Finances

Evidence from the Historical Records

By: Mr.Nicolas End,Mr.Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba,Mr.G. Terrier,Renaud Duplay

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Deflation and Public Finances

Evidence from the Historical Records

By: Mr.Nicolas End,Mr.Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba,Mr.G. Terrier,Renaud Duplay

This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly through increases in public debt ratios, reflecting a worsening in interest rate–growth differentials. On average, a mild rate of deflation increases public debt ratios by almost 2 percent of GDP a year, this impact being larger during recessionary deflations. Using a simulation model that accounts for composition effects and price expectations, we also find that, for European countries, a 2 percentage point deflationary shock in both 2015 and 2016 would lead to a deterioration in the primary balance of as much as 1 percent of GDP by 2019.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513539698

ISBN 13

9781513539690

Economic Trends in Africa

The Economic Performance of Sub-Saharan African Countries

By: Mr.Stéphane Cossé,Mr.Pierre Dhonte,Mr.G. Terrier,Daudi Ballali

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Economic Trends in Africa

The Economic Performance of Sub-Saharan African Countries

By: Mr.Stéphane Cossé,Mr.Pierre Dhonte,Mr.G. Terrier,Daudi Ballali

This paper highlights selected recent developments in the economies of sub-Saharan Africa. It notes that the outlook for commodity prices has improved, and with it the outlook for economic activity beyond 1994; it also notes, however, the need for higher savings and investment to sustain growth over the medium term. The paper also covers two aspects of structural adjustment: the liberalization of exchange and trade systems, which has been extensive and has resulted in a sharp reduction in exchange market distortions; and the momentum of regional integration in the CFA countries and in the Southern Africa region.

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International Monetary Fund

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1451853149

ISBN 13

9781451853148

Book's by Mr.G. Terrier

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

Deflation and Public Finances

Deflation and Public Finances

Economic Trends in Africa

Economic Trends in Africa

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