Morales Opazo, C.'s Books

Agricultural transformation: trends in farm size, crop diversification and mechanization in Nicaragua and Peru

By: Srinivasan, S.V., Saborío, M., Morales Opazo, C.

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Agricultural transformation: trends in farm size, crop diversification and mechanization in Nicaragua and Peru

By: Srinivasan, S.V., Saborío, M., Morales Opazo, C.

Structural change is a process in which the amount of labour, capital and land dedicated to agriculture (and other sectors) changes over time. In this study, we focus on the cases of Peru and Nicaragua using their two most recently administered agricultural censuses. The agricultural censuses permit us to identify dimensions and information available to study the process of structural change in Latin America over the last 20 years. The study includes a comparative analysis and policy recommendations based on the two most recent agricultural censuses administered in Nicaragua (2001 and 2011) and Peru (1994 and 2012). Processing and analysing information from these censuses contribute to identifying dimensions and information available to study the process of structural change in Latin America over the last 20 years. Evidence-based policymaking is increasingly more at the core of the United Nations and member countries’ activity. In the case of FAO, this type of study is crucial to build the knowledge body on which projects and activities are carried forward. The Hand-in-Hand (HiH) initiative is a key example in this context, as it aims at quantitatively identifying high-impact and high-agricultural potential areas in which to invest within developing countries. As Nicaragua and Peru are HiH’s target countries, this study will show very useful to learn about their recent experiences in agricultural transformations.

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Food & Agriculture Org.

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ISBN 10

9251367973

ISBN 13

9789251367971

Diversification perspectives of Guyana’s agrifood sector

By: weber, r., bubbico, a., morales opazo, c.

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Diversification perspectives of Guyana’s agrifood sector

By: weber, r., bubbico, a., morales opazo, c.

Guyana’s agrifood systems are facing an increasing level of risk: rising sea-levels are eroding its coastal area, where much of the agricultural activity is located; recent off-shore oil discoveries threaten to crowd-out non-oil sectors; and a dependency on a limited number of agricultural export commodities exposes the agricultural sector to price and market volatility. The diversification of agricultural production and exports has the potential to generate growth and increase the resilience of the agricultural sector. This study identifies Guyana’s diversification potential using comparative-advantage and export-sophistication metrics, which are combined for a proximity analysis based on Guyana’s production space. The objective is to identify a set of commodities with high export potential, which is in relative proximity to the current agrifood export basket. We find oil seeds, bovine meat, sunflower seed oil, fish flours (for animal feed), palm oil, fowl, cocoa beans, cocoa paste and sunflower seeds to be commodities with high export potential. These commodities share characteristics with the current agrifood export basket. This implies that expanding the exports of these goods will not be costly and is likely to promote economic development, agricultural sector growth and reduce risks associated with market concentration.

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Food & Agriculture Org.

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ISBN 10

9251367264

ISBN 13

9789251367261

Agricultural sector review in Lebanon

By: Dal, E., Díaz-González, A.M., Morales-Opazo, C. & Vigani, M.

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Agricultural sector review in Lebanon

By: Dal, E., Díaz-González, A.M., Morales-Opazo, C. & Vigani, M.

The Agricultural Sector Review aims to provide an up-to-date picture of the current socio-economic situation of the agricultural sector in Lebanon and to identify key challenges and evidence-based strategies for policy-making. The first part provides a detailed overview of Lebanon's agricultural and food systems, including a section focused on the governance the overall policy framework and the specific policies currently governing the sector. The second part of this study consists of an identification of the challenges and issues that are currently affecting and constraining the development of the Lebanese agricultural sector to its full potential. Once identified these challenges, the study proposes several potential strategies and recommendations that could be applied at the policy-making level to drive the improvement of the sector. Finally, we provide a discussion towards a renewed national agricultural strategy; in which we reviewed some lessons learned from previous success stories in the agricultural sector in Lebanon and compile the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the agricultural sector.

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116

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Food & Agriculture Org.

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ISBN 10

9251345716

ISBN 13

9789251345719

Decoupling direct payments in North Macedonia

Impacts on farmer income

By: Weber, R.,Díaz González, A.M.,Morales Opazo, C.

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Decoupling direct payments in North Macedonia

Impacts on farmer income

By: Weber, R.,Díaz González, A.M.,Morales Opazo, C.

North Macedonia’s ambition to join the European Union requires reforms of the agricultural sector and subsidy system. One major reform is the alignment to the rules of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union on direct payments, including the “decoupling” of direct payments from production quantities. The decoupling of direct payments is likely to have significant impacts on production decisions, prices and therefore on farmer income. This paper identifies four possible scenarios for North Macedonia to align the direct payment scheme to the regulations of the European Union and subsequently analyses the impact of each scenario on farmer income, using an ex ante analysis method in the form of a static microsimulation approach and the farm accountancy data network (FADN) data at individual farm level. The results show that, on average, farmer income increases when direct payments are decoupled in North Macedonia. We further test for heterogeneity and identify different effects along farm types and economic farm size – and find that some farmers would exhibit income losses as a result of the reform (i.e. specialist cattle, mixed crops and livestock farmers). The document was developed as a key deliverable in the context of TCP/MCD/3703 “Strengthening of Agriculture and Rural Development Policy Analysis and Programming”.

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9251377804

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9789251377802

Lebanon’s agrifood system in times of turbulence: obstacles and opportunities

By: Khafagy, A., Díaz-González, A.M., Nano, E., Soguero Escuer, J., Morales Opazo, C., Salibi, A., El Tawn, L., Dikah, W.

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Lebanon’s agrifood system in times of turbulence: obstacles and opportunities

By: Khafagy, A., Díaz-González, A.M., Nano, E., Soguero Escuer, J., Morales Opazo, C., Salibi, A., El Tawn, L., Dikah, W.

Lebanon currently faces one of the worst economic crises of this century. The political deadlock, the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have further intensified the country’s existing economic fragility. Based on preliminary estimates, it is expected that the total cultivated area (mainly temporary crops and crops under greenhouses) will decrease during the 2021–2022 agricultural season due to the expected further increase in prices of inputs and soaring fuel prices. Overall, farmers will tend to shift to low-cost and less water demanding crops to reduce their overall production costs. Farmgate prices for agricultural products are also on the rise with the increase in production costs due to further depreciation of the Lebanese Pound. Despite the increase in export costs, exports of fresh fruits and vegetables are projected to increase for a variety of products and countries. This study aims to identify Lebanon’s main economic and social challenges related to the agrifood sector and to recommend evidence-based strategies and priority areas for public investment to cope with the impacts of the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the PoB explosion. It aims to update and complement the June 2021 ASR. It should be noted that this study was prepared during the period from September 2021 to February 2022 and does not cover latest developments, such as the impact of the Ukraine war on the agricultural and food security sectors in Lebanon.

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Food & Agriculture Org.

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9251369712

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9789251369715

Targeting vulnerability hotspots along the agrifood system

A stress test for Ethiopia and Nigeria

By: Letta, M.,Montalbano, P.,Morales Opazo, C.,Petruccelli, F.

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Targeting vulnerability hotspots along the agrifood system

A stress test for Ethiopia and Nigeria

By: Letta, M.,Montalbano, P.,Morales Opazo, C.,Petruccelli, F.

We leverage the multi-stressor nature of the COVID-19 generalized disruption as an opportunity to test the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of both theory-based and data-driven vulnerability prediction models for the ex ante targeting of preventive interventions. [Author] Taking advantage of the World Bank multitopic surveys for Ethiopia and Nigeria, the two most populous African countries, our retrospective evaluation assesses the models’ ability to anticipate households and agrifood system actors experiencing food insecurity and income losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. [Author] The results are disappointing: we document that, despite considerable heterogeneity across data and methods, both models do not achieve satisfactory out-of-sample forecasting performances. [Author] Our findings are robust to the use of different data, estimation methods, and several heterogeneity analyses and sensitivity checks. [Author] This evidence calls for a refinement of current profiling methodologies and for interoperability efforts to close existing microdata gaps. [Author] Such efforts would enable policymakers to implement more effective early-warning systems of vulnerability hotspots and improve the cost-effectiveness of development interventions aimed at targeting groups vulnerable to future food crises. [Author]

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9251388237

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9789251388235

Realigning policy interventions on agricultural prices

Monitoring incentives in low- and middle-income countries during the first wave of COVID-19

By: Consoli, S., Egas Yerovi, J.J., Morales Opazo, C.

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Realigning policy interventions on agricultural prices

Monitoring incentives in low- and middle-income countries during the first wave of COVID-19

By: Consoli, S., Egas Yerovi, J.J., Morales Opazo, C.

COVID-19 has resulted in a shock to agrifood systems around the world, with the potential for low- and middle-income countries to be particularly affected. Although policy responses were more muted than during the 2007–2008 world food crisis, efforts to insulate from supply shocks and ensure local availability during COVID-19 have generally included export restrictions and import tariff reductions, among other responses. In an effort to enable rapid market monitoring and realignment, we develop a new indicator defined as a monthly nominal rate of protection “express” which seeks to isolate as much as possible the effect of trade and market policies on domestic prices in real-time in order to understand how they responded. This analysis examines changes to this indicator during the first wave of the pandemic in 27 low- and middle-income countries for the most-consumed staple cereals of the poor and food insecure. We show that agricultural price incentives declined by 12.6 percentage points compared to the same months in previous years, suggesting that retail domestic price spikes may have largely been mitigated or avoided. However, impacts varied across countries and commodities, and this indicator can serve as a tool for examining primary drivers of changes and conducting causal analysis to facilitate adequate agrifood policy responses to support economic recovery in the post-COVID-19 era.

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9251358915

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9789251358917

Survey versus remotely sensed data

An evaluation of crop yields in the Comoros

By: Masson, S.,Weber, R.,Tanios, C.,Morales Opazo, C.

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Survey versus remotely sensed data

An evaluation of crop yields in the Comoros

By: Masson, S.,Weber, R.,Tanios, C.,Morales Opazo, C.

The Comoros, a small island developing state (SIDS) ranking among the poorest nations in Africa, is facing numerous challenges that make it particularly vulnerable to food insecurity: as a remotely located, net-food importing country with a small landmass, limited agricultural land and high exposure to natural catastrophes, the Comoros’ food security is particularly vulnerable to external shocks. While being a net-food importer, agriculture is an essential sector and livelihood source, contributing 30 percent to gross domestic product in 2015. This makes the Comoros a rare exemption across small island developing states. Investing in the Comoros’ agrifood systems and increasing their efficiency is essential to increase food security. So far, a lack of data in the Comoros’ agrifood systems has limited the scope of analyses. The use of remotely sensed data for crop yield models presents a cost-effective opportunity for the Comoros to continuously monitor its agricultural sector, and reduce its data gap and the high cost associated with surveys. Based on two different sensors, MODIS-TERRA and Sentinel-2, and a unique FAO survey conducted in 2021 which georeferenced farm plots, we derive a method to calibrate vegetation indices (NDVI) as a proxy for crop yield in the Comoros. Our results suggest that the MODIS sensor is not well adapted to estimate yields in the Comoros. Plots are on average less than 1 ha, while the MODIS spatial resolution is 250 m by 250 m which leads to less consistency and less variation within a plot. Sentinel 2 images seem more consistent with survey-based crop yield estimates. We finally managed to proxy manioc yields by putting restrictions on the highest yields producers. The coefficient of determination is up to 0.28 when dealing with farmers producing at least 40 percent of manioc.

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