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Flying to Paradise

The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Lu Han,MissMarie S Kim,Ms.Nicole Laframboise

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Flying to Paradise

The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Lu Han,MissMarie S Kim,Ms.Nicole Laframboise

This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.

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Page Count

42

Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498375391

ISBN 13

9781498375399

Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?

By: Mr.Sebastian Sosa,Ms.Evridiki Tsounta,MissMarie S Kim

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Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?

By: Mr.Sebastian Sosa,Ms.Evridiki Tsounta,MissMarie S Kim

A favorable external environment coupled with prudent policies fostered output growth in most of Latin America during the last decade. But, what were the drivers of this strong growth performance from the supply side and will this momentum be sustainable in the years ahead? We address these questions by identifying the proximate causes of the recent high GDP growth and estimating potential growth rates for the period ahead for a large group of Latin American countries based on standard (Solow-style) growth accounting methodologies. We find that factor accumulation (especially labor), rather than growth in total factor productivity (TFP), remains the main driver of GDP growth. Moving forward, given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum is unlikely to be sustainable unless TFP performance improves significantly.

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Page Count

23

Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484349105

ISBN 13

9781484349106