MissMali Chivakul's Books

Financial Distortions in China

A General Equilibrium Approach

By: Diego Anzoategui,MissMali Chivakul,Wojciech Maliszewski

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Financial Distortions in China

A General Equilibrium Approach

By: Diego Anzoategui,MissMali Chivakul,Wojciech Maliszewski

Widespread implicit guarantees and interest ceilings were major distortions in China’s financial system, contributing to a misallocation of resources. We analyze the impact of removing such frictions in a general equilibrium setting. The results show that comprehensive reforms generate better outcomes than partial ones: removing the deposit rate ceiling alone increases output, but the efficiency of capital allocation does not improve. Removing implicit guarantees improves output through lower cost of capital for private companies and better resource allocation.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513582798

ISBN 13

9781513582795

Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Waikei W. Lam

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Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Waikei W. Lam

This paper documents and assesses the risk stemming from rising corporate indebtedness in China using a firm-level dataset of listed firms. It finds that while leverage on average is not high, there is a fat tail of highly leveraged firms accounting for a significant share of total corporate debt, mainly concentrated in the real estate and construction sector and state-owned enterprises in general. The real estate and construction firms tend to face lower borrowing costs and could withstand a modest increase of interest rate shocks despite their high leverage. The corporate sector is however vulnerable to a significant slowdown in the real estate and construction sector. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that the share of debt that would be in financial distress would rise to about a quarter of total listed firm debt in the event of a 20 percent decline in real estate and construction profits.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484309057

ISBN 13

9781484309056

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Waikei W. Lam,Xiaoguang Liu,Wojciech Maliszewski,Mr.Alfred Schipke

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Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Waikei W. Lam,Xiaoguang Liu,Wojciech Maliszewski,Mr.Alfred Schipke

China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484337255

ISBN 13

9781484337257

The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Ricardo Llaudes,Mr.Ferhan Salman

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The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Ricardo Llaudes,Mr.Ferhan Salman

This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of dimensions, such as growth, stock market performance, sovereign spreads, and credit growth. This paper also shows that during this crisis, pre-crisis reserve holdings helped to mitigate the initial growth collapse. This finding contrasts with other studies that fail to find a significant relationship between reserves and the growth decline. This paper argues that our preferred measure of impact is a more accurate reflection of the true impact of the crisis on EMs.

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International Monetary Fund

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1455209376

ISBN 13

9781455209378

Book's by MissMali Chivakul

Financial Distortions in China

Financial Distortions in China

Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities

Assessing China’s Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets

The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets

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