Mikhail Pranovich's Books

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

By: Karel Musil,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

By: Karel Musil,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr.Jan Vlcek

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484389271

ISBN 13

9781484389270

The Game of Anchors

Studying the Causes of Currency Crises in Belarus

By: Alex Miksjuk,Mr.Sam Ouliaris,Mikhail Pranovich

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The Game of Anchors

Studying the Causes of Currency Crises in Belarus

By: Alex Miksjuk,Mr.Sam Ouliaris,Mikhail Pranovich

Belarus experienced a sequence of currency crises during 2009-2014. Our empirical results, based on a structural econometric model, suggest that the activist wage policy and extensive state program lending (SPL) conflicted with the tightly managed exchange rate regime and suppressed monetary policy transmission. This created conditions for the unusually frequent crises. At the current juncture, refocusing monetary policy from exchange rate to inflation would help to avoid disorderly external adjustments. The government should abandon wage targets and phase out SPL to remove the underlying source of the imbalances and ensure lasting stabilization.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513506803

ISBN 13

9781513506807

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

By: Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr. Jan Vlcek

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An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

By: Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr. Jan Vlcek

We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.

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