First published in 1986, the research for this book was originally undertaken by the authors at The Futures Group for the Office of Technology Assessment. This study assesses technology trade from the perspective of the competing supplier countries. This group was defined to include the United States, Japan, and Western Europe. Six Middle Eastern countries were selected for detailed review: Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China, Syria, and the Iran nuclear crisis. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
This book explores the impact of Japanese and European nontariff barriers (NTBs) on the international marketing, investment, and technology strategies of small- to medium-sized high-technology U.S. firms. The study documents a pronounced dichotomy between strategies of small and large companies that, to a significant extent, reflects the gap in the resources, bargaining power, and familiarity with foreign markets of these two groups. Conclusions concerning the efficacy of corporate strategies adopted are supported by an analysis of over 20 case studies. These strategies range from licensing agreements with local firms to use of a trading company or local distributor, formation of a joint venture with a local firm, and establishment of a wholly owned subsidiary in the foreign market.
This book assesses the politics and programs of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and their relevance to U.S. trade policy. Focusing on the direct loan program for large credits with maturities of more than five years, the authors evaluate the broad criteria employed by the Bank in its decision-making process and the resulting allocation of Bank resources. They also examine the distribution of Bank loans and subsidies across industries and relate this to key industry characteristics such as comparative advantage and export dependence. The problems faced by the Eximbank in recent years—high borrowing costs, intensified export credit competition, limited resources, increased risks, conflicting mandates to be competitive yet self-sustaining -—have given tremendous importance to the careful articulation of policy and administration of programs. The authors find Bank policies to be broadly supportive of the U.S. trade policy goals, but also identify several areas of inconsistency and lack of definition and offer alternative means of specifying criteria to overcome these problems.
He argues that the concept of family resemblances, as that concept has been refined and extended in prototype theory in the contemporary cognitive sciences, is the most plausible analytical strategy for resolving the central problem of the book. In the solution proposed, religion is conceptualized as an affair of "more or less" rather than a matter of "yes or no," and no sharp line is drawn between religion and non-religion."--BOOK JACKET.
Two leading experts propose a detailed plan of action showing how government, industry, and private citizens can work together to ward off environmental disaster.
The goal of this book is to provide a solid mathematical foundation via visualization of real world data. This book uses technology as a tool to solve problems, motivate concepts, explore and preview mathematical concepts and to find curves of best fit to the data. Most mathematical concepts are developed and illustrated both algebraically and graphically, with the more intuitive and appropriate method presented first. The authors use their extensive teaching and writing experiences to guide and support readers through the typical difficult areas.
This book assesses the politics and programs of the U.S. Export-Import Bank and their relevance to U.S. trade policy. Focusing on the direct loan program for large credits with maturities of more than five years, the authors evaluate the broad criteria employed by the Bank in its decision-making process and the resulting allocation of Bank resources. They also examine the distribution of Bank loans and subsidies across industries and relate this to key industry characteristics such as comparative advantage and export dependence. The problems faced by the Eximbank in recent years—high borrowing costs, intensified export credit competition, limited resources, increased risks, conflicting mandates to be competitive yet self-sustaining -—have given tremendous importance to the careful articulation of policy and administration of programs. The authors find Bank policies to be broadly supportive of the U.S. trade policy goals, but also identify several areas of inconsistency and lack of definition and offer alternative means of specifying criteria to overcome these problems.
The most comprehensive and up-to-date optics resource available Prepared under the auspices of the Optical Society of America, the five carefully architected and cross-referenced volumes of the Handbook of Optics, Third Edition, contain everything a student, scientist, or engineer requires to actively work in the field. From the design of complex optical systems to world-class research and development methods, this definitive publication provides unparalleled access to the fundamentals of the discipline and its greatest minds. Individual chapters are written by the world's most renowned experts who explain, illustrate, and solve the entire field of optics. Each volume contains a complete chapter listing for the entire Handbook, extensive chapter glossaries, and a wealth of references. This pioneering work offers unprecedented coverage of optics data, techniques, and applications. Volume I covers geometrical and physical optics, polarized light, components, and instruments.
The & Eighth Edition of this highly dependable book retains its best features--accuracy, precision, depth, and abundant exercise sets--while substantially updating its content and pedagogy. Striving to teach mathematics as a way of life, Sullivan provides understandable, realistic applications that are consistent with the abilities of most readers. Chapter topics include Graphs; Polynomial and Rational Functions; Conics; Systems of Equations and Inequalities; Exponential and Logarithmic Functions; Counting and Probability; and more. For individuals with an interest in learning algebra as it applies to their everyday lives.
Michael Oppenheimer's Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures is both a synthesis of our knowledge on scenario planning and a practical guide for policymakers. One of America's leading scenario planners, Oppenheimer has advised the Department of State, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President's Science Advisor, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Brookings Institution. In this book, he develops a sophisticated and coherent method for foreign policy specialists who necessarily deal with rapidly changing situations involving high levels of uncertainty. As he explains, figuring out possible outcomes and designing and appropriate policy requires an ability to identify the drivers of change, the potential wild card events, and the central policy questions in any given situation. Once policymakers determine these, they must plan a scenario. To do that, planners need to know how to build the best team of experts possible, run a session, and create credible narratives for different scenario alternatives. To illustrate how it all works, Oppenheimer draws from a range of real-life planning scenarios, including China, Syria, and the Iran nuclear crisis. To be sure, new crises will arise that supplant these current ones, but his basic method will aid policymakers in almost every future situation. While nothing ever goes completely to plan-least of all international conflict-preparing with multiple scenarios in mind will always be the least worst approach to global and regional crises. Methodologically rigorous and comprehensive, Pivotal Countries, Alternate Futures will be essential reading for policymakers and policy students trying to determine the best path forward in any given crisis.
Incorporating elements of history, science, philosophy, and international relations theory, this book explores the life and thought of Robert Oppenheimer. The book takes the form of "philosophical biography" and moves in two dimensions. First, it recovers and reconstructs what Oppenheimer said during the 1940s, 50s, and 60s (i.e., his hope and vision) with the goal of finding what might be of general philosophical interest today. Second, the book considers not only Oppenheimer's thought but also his life using philosophical ideas developed by contemporary philosophers. Interestingly, connections arise between these two complementary dimensions that serve in illuminating and assessing both Oppenheimer and his worldview. Central to any discussion of Oppenheimer, of course, is the nuclear revolution, and the possibility of transcending the resulting crisis. In order to deepen and broaden this discussion and demonstrate the relevance of his vision for today, his views are also analyzed using contemporary international relations theory with special emphasis on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. This examination reveals ways in which Oppenheimer's reasoning was prescient of work being done today to control, and possibly move beyond, the nuclear revolution. The overall thesis of the book is that Oppenheimer's ideas are important, engaging, relevant, and more coherent than generally assumed. Hence, his voice needs to be brought back into the public forum.
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