An analysis of the effect of public pension schemes on a country's fertility rate and a proposal for policies to reform pension coverage in light of this. The rapidly aging populations of many developed countries--most notably Japan and member countries of the European Union--present obvious problems for the public pension plans of these countries. Not only will there be disproportionately fewer workers making pension contributions than there are retirees drawing pension benefits, but the youth-to-age imbalance would significantly affect the total contributive capacity of future generations and hence their total income growth. In Children and Pensions, Alessandro Cigno and Martin Werding examine the way pension policy and child-related benefits affect fertility behavior and productivity growth. They present theoretical arguments to the effect that public pension coverage as such will reduce aggregate fertility and may raise aggregate household savings. They argue further that public pensions, as they are currently designed, discourage parents from private human capital investment in their children to improve the children's future earning capacity. After an overview of pension and child benefit policies (focusing on the European Union, Japan, and the United States), the authors offer an empirical and theoretical analysis and a simulation of the effects of the policies under discussion. Their policy proposals to address declines in fertility and productivity growth include the innovative suggestion that relates a person's pension entitlements to his or her number of children and the children's earning ability--proposing that, in effect, a person's pension could be financed in part or in full by the pensioner's own children.
Leading international economists examine the different patterns and long-term trends behind persistent unemployment across Western Europe in light of recent developments in labor market theory. Structural unemployment, or persistently high levels of unemployment that do not follow the ups and downs of a typical business cycle, varies significantly across industrialized countries. In this CESifo volume, leading labor economists analyze the widely diverging patterns of long-term unemployment across Western Europe. Drawing on recent developments in labor market theory and macroeconomics to explain the emergence and persistence of unemployment, the studies look for fundamental explanations and common patterns that might lead to policy solutions.The two opening chapters offer overviews of the problem: European labor market expert Stephen Nickell highlights the unemployment situation in the "Big Four" continental European states of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, and American economist Edmund S. Phelps focuses on new theoretical approaches that examine institutional factors influencing unemployment in a given country. Following these introductory essays, prominent economists consider the experiences of their home countries, in chapters on Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. By taking advantage of the richness of research conducted at a national level and making the work accessible to an international audience, this volume contributes to a new understanding of structural unemployment and how it can be overcome through labor market reforms and other economic policy measures. Contributors Torben Andersen, Samuel Bentolila, Norbert Berthold, Guiseppe Bertola, Rainer Fehn, Pietro Garibaldi, Bertil Holmlund, Juan F. Jimeno, Erkki Koskela, Stephen J. Nickell, Jan C. van Ours, Edmund S. Phelps, Jean Pisany-Ferry, Christopher Pissarides, Roope Uusitalo, Brendan Walsh, Martin Werding
Die vorliegende Studie dokumentiert die Resultate des Forschungsprojekts "Fertility and Prosperity: Links between Demography and Growth", mit dem der Deutsche Arbeitskreis für Familienhilfe e.V., Kirchzarten, das ifo Institut im Dezember 2003 beauftragt hat. Die Studie verfolgt eine zweistufige Forschungsstrategie, (a) mit einer breit angelegten ökonometrischen Analyse möglicher Zusammenhänge zwischen demographischem Wandel und ökonomischer Entwicklung in zahlreichen Industrie- und Entwicklungsländern sowie (b) mit einem Überblick über Geburtenentwicklung und familienpolitische Rahmenbedingungen in einer begrenzten Zahl hochentwickelter Länder. Die Ergebnisse zeigen an, dass der in der Vergangenheit eingetretene Geburtenrückgang durch seine Auswirkungen auf Größe und Altersaufbau der Erwerbsbevölkerung einen nennenswerten negativen Effekt für das Wachstum von Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Pro- Kopf-Einkommen und die Produktivität der verbleibenden Erwerbstätigen haben kann wo immer dieser Trend besonders ausgeprägt war. Zugleich deuten die ökonometrischen Befunde darauf hin, dass eine Steigerung der Geburtenrate in Ländern mit niedriger Fertilität vor allem eine Frage institutioneller Rahmenbedingungen und darauf bezogener politischer Entscheidungen ist. Durch die vertiefte Diskussion eines breiten Spektrums familienpolitischer Maßnahmen in Deutschland, Frankreich, dem Vereinigten Königreich und Schweden wird diese Einsicht weiter konkretisiert.
An analysis of the effect of public pension schemes on a country's fertility rate and a proposal for policies to reform pension coverage in light of this. The rapidly aging populations of many developed countries--most notably Japan and member countries of the European Union--present obvious problems for the public pension plans of these countries. Not only will there be disproportionately fewer workers making pension contributions than there are retirees drawing pension benefits, but the youth-to-age imbalance would significantly affect the total contributive capacity of future generations and hence their total income growth. In Children and Pensions, Alessandro Cigno and Martin Werding examine the way pension policy and child-related benefits affect fertility behavior and productivity growth. They present theoretical arguments to the effect that public pension coverage as such will reduce aggregate fertility and may raise aggregate household savings. They argue further that public pensions, as they are currently designed, discourage parents from private human capital investment in their children to improve the children's future earning capacity. After an overview of pension and child benefit policies (focusing on the European Union, Japan, and the United States), the authors offer an empirical and theoretical analysis and a simulation of the effects of the policies under discussion. Their policy proposals to address declines in fertility and productivity growth include the innovative suggestion that relates a person's pension entitlements to his or her number of children and the children's earning ability--proposing that, in effect, a person's pension could be financed in part or in full by the pensioner's own children.
Leading international economists examine the different patterns and long-term trends behind persistent unemployment across Western Europe in light of recent developments in labor market theory. Structural unemployment, or persistently high levels of unemployment that do not follow the ups and downs of a typical business cycle, varies significantly across industrialized countries. In this CESifo volume, leading labor economists analyze the widely diverging patterns of long-term unemployment across Western Europe. Drawing on recent developments in labor market theory and macroeconomics to explain the emergence and persistence of unemployment, the studies look for fundamental explanations and common patterns that might lead to policy solutions.The two opening chapters offer overviews of the problem: European labor market expert Stephen Nickell highlights the unemployment situation in the "Big Four" continental European states of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, and American economist Edmund S. Phelps focuses on new theoretical approaches that examine institutional factors influencing unemployment in a given country. Following these introductory essays, prominent economists consider the experiences of their home countries, in chapters on Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland, Ireland, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. By taking advantage of the richness of research conducted at a national level and making the work accessible to an international audience, this volume contributes to a new understanding of structural unemployment and how it can be overcome through labor market reforms and other economic policy measures. Contributors Torben Andersen, Samuel Bentolila, Norbert Berthold, Guiseppe Bertola, Rainer Fehn, Pietro Garibaldi, Bertil Holmlund, Juan F. Jimeno, Erkki Koskela, Stephen J. Nickell, Jan C. van Ours, Edmund S. Phelps, Jean Pisany-Ferry, Christopher Pissarides, Roope Uusitalo, Brendan Walsh, Martin Werding
Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.
The public debt crisis in Europe has shaken the confidence not just in the Euro, but in the European model. Aging and uneconomical Europeans are being squeezed between innovative Americans and efficient Asians, it is said. With debt and demographics dragging down them down, one hears that European economies will not grow much unless radically new ways are discovered. The end of complacency in Europe is a good thing, but this loss of confidence could be dangerous. The danger is that in a rush to rejuvenate growth, the attractive attributes of the European development model could be abandoned along with the weak. In fact, the European growth model has many strong points and enviable accomplishments. One can say without exaggeration that Europe had invented a convergence machine , taking in poor countries and helping them become high income economies. World Bank research has identified 27 countries that have grown from middle-income to high income since 1987: a few thanks to the discovery and exploitation of massive natural resources (e.g.: oil in Oman and Trinidad and Tobago), several others like Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, embracing aggressive export-led strategies which involved working and saving a lot, postponing political liberties, and looking out only for themselves. But half of the countries that have grown from middle income to high income Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia are actually in Europe. This is why the European model was so attractive and unique, and why with some well designed efforts it ought to be made right again.
Three Little Birds: Faith, Hope, and Love is a raw and true story written during the life and loss of Jacqueline Martin's third child, James Robert. This story is meant to inspire and counsel readers, especially those facing a difficult journey of their own. James was born prematurely and with a rare congenital heart defect on May 17, 2011, and passed away on September 14, 2011. Three Little Birds: Faith, Hope, and Love is a testimony to the power of prayer and provides proof that God made sure Jacqueline and her family did not have to face this painful journey to physical and emotional wholeness alone. Jacqueline's story speaks about her personal experience as a mom and about her attempt to live her life faithfully as a Christian while she managed the toughest trial of her life during a "parent's worst nightmare" losing a child. Living life as a Christian means living life to a higher calling. Jacqueline's story is about taking a parent's worst nightmare and turning it into something extraordinary by improving the lives of others one baby step at a time. Imbued in Jacqueline's writing is the Martin family's message of faith, hope, and love in a direct metaphor for the three little birds. The three little birds are represented by her three children, as well as the greatest gifts of God. Everyone endures hardships in their lives and receives tests of their faith during these difficult times. These tests of faith enable us to continue to count as well as remember our blessings. They seem to hide the world's nature and beautiful colors, silencing the chirping and singing of birds. During difficult times, community and help from others allow us to continue standing and to get through the trials. With the help of others, the world's colors shine brightly and open our eyes to different experiences, trials, and journeys in our life as well as the journeys of others.
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