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The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities

A New Dataset

By: Ms.Elva Bova,Marta Ruiz-Arranz,Mr.Frederik G Toscani,H. Elif Ture

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The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities

A New Dataset

By: Ms.Elva Bova,Marta Ruiz-Arranz,Mr.Frederik G Toscani,H. Elif Ture

We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress. The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6 percent of GDP but costs can be as high as 40 percent for major financial sector bailouts. Contingent liability realizations are correlated among each other and tend to occur during periods of growth reversals and crises, accentuating pressure on the budget during already difficult times. Countries with stronger institutions are able to better control and address the underlying risks so that they are less exposed to contingent liability realizations.

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55

Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498303609

ISBN 13

9781498303606

Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?

By: Marta Ruiz-Arranz,Milan Zavadjil

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Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?

By: Marta Ruiz-Arranz,Milan Zavadjil

Empirical analysis does not suggest that reserves are "too high" in the majority of Asian countries, though China may be a special case. Much of the reserve increase in Asia can be explained by an optimal insurance model under which reserves provide a steady source of liquidity to cushion the impact of a sudden stop in capital inflows on output and consumption. Moreover, the benefits of reserves in terms of reduced spreads on privately held external debt further explains the observed growth in reserves since 1997-98. Using threshold estimation techniques, the paper shows that most of Asia can still benefit from higher reserves in terms of reduced borrowing costs.

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Age

Page Count

36

Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451870507

ISBN 13

9781451870503

Book's by Marta Ruiz-Arranz

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities

Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?

Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?

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