From a political-polling expert, an eye-opening—and hilarious—look at the origins of polls and how they have been used and abused ever since. Opinion polls dominate media coverage of politics, especially elections. But how do the polls work? How do we tell the good from the bad? And in light of recent polling disasters, can we trust them at all? Polling UnPacked gives us the full story, from the first rudimentary polls in the nineteenth century, through attempts by politicians to ban polling in the twentieth century, to the very latest techniques and controversies from the last few years. Equal parts enlightening and hilarious, the book requires no prior knowledge of polling or statistics to understand. But even hardened pollsters will find much to enjoy, from how polling has been used to help plan military invasions to why an exhausted interviewer was accidentally instrumental in inventing exit polls. Written by a former political pollster and the creator of Britain’s foremost polling-intention database, Polling UnPacked reveals which opinion polls to trust, which to ignore, and which, frankly, to laugh at. It will change the way we see political coverage forever.
The 2008 presidential election provided a "perfect storm" for pollsters. A significant portion of the population had exchanged their landlines for cellphones, which made them harder to survey. Additionally, a potential Bradley effect -- in which white voters misrepresent their intentions of voting for or against a black candidate -- skewed predictions, and aggressive voter registration and mobilization campaigns by Barack Obama combined to challenge conventional understandings about how to measure and report public preferences. In the wake of these significant changes, Political Polling in the Digital Age, edited by Kirby Goidel, offers timely and insightful interpretations of the impact these trends will have on polling. In this groundbreaking collection, contributors place recent developments in public-opinion polling into a broader historical context, examine how to construct accurate meanings from public-opinion surveys, and analyze the future of public-opinion polling. Notable contributors include Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of Pollster.com; Anna Greenberg, a leading Democratic pollster; and Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center. In an era of increasingly personalized and interactive communications, accurate political polling is more difficult and also more important. Political Polling in the Digital Age presents fresh perspectives and relevant tactics that demystify the variable world of opinion taking.
Ten years after his New York Times bestselling book Microtrends, Mark Penn identifies the next wave of trends reshaping the future of business, politics, and culture. Mark Penn has boldly argued that the future is not shaped by society’s broad forces, but by quiet changes within narrow slices of the population. Ten years ago, he showed how the behavior of one small group can exert an outsized influence over the whole of America with his bestselling Microtrends, which highlighted dozens of tiny, counterintuitive trends that have since come to fruition, from the explosion of internet dating to the recent split within the Republican Party. Today, the world is in perplexing upheaval, and microtrends are more influential than ever. In this environment, Penn offers a necessary perspective. Microtrends Squared makes sense of what is happening in the world today. Through fifty new microtrends, Penn illuminates the shifts that are coming in the next decade. He pinpoints the unseen hand behind new power relationships that have emerged—as fringe voters and reactionary politics have found their revival, as online influencers overshadow traditional media, and as the gig economy continues to invade new swathes of industry. He speaks to the next wave of developments coming in technology, social movements, and even dating. Offering a clear vision of the future of business, politics, and culture, Microtrends Squared is a must-read for innovators and entrepreneurs, political and business leaders, and for every curious reader looking to understand the wave of the future when it is just a ripple.
In Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Today’s Big Changes, Mark Penn shows that 75 of the most important trends in the world today are the smallest ones. Exploring everything from politics to religion, food to entertainment, Penn follows the numbers to uncover what's really popular, not what we think is popular. Because while these trends are shaping the world, they’re relatively unseen – they’re under-the-radar forces that can involve as little as 1 percent of the population. People have never been more sophisticated, more individualistic, or more knowledgeable about the choices they make in their daily lives. Yet it takes intensive, scientific study to find the logical patterns that underlie those choices. While helping you to refine your own trend-spotting skills, Penn pierces remarkably stubborn conventional thinking to find the counterintuitive trends that represent a portrait of society in the 21st century. A groundbreaking book about the way people think and how they act, Microtrends explores the practical implications of these 75 trends for politics, business, and society itself.
A thought-provoking analysis by one of the most astute analysts of the California scene."—U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein "If you care about the direction in which America is headed, then you must pay attention to California. To understand California today and decades from now, you must read Baldassare’s masterful assessment. He knows the issues and he takes you inside the head of California voters—old, young, Latino, white, he talks to them all. And you can forget your assumptions: Baldassare proves the stereotypes wrong."—Judy Woodruff, Anchor, CNN’s Inside Politics "Probing the social and political mindset of California offers a shortcut into the American future. No one knows California better in this regard than Baldassare, and never has he been more on top of his game than in this landmark study of California today—and America tomorrow."—Dr. Kevin Starr, State Librarian of California "Many people speculate about the expanding social and political clout of Latinos in California, but Baldassare uses solid evidence to reveal what's driving this dynamic population—from unique political attitudes to highest-level optimism. Read this book and you'll understand the profound influence that growing Latino participation will have on the Golden State's future."—Monica Lozano, President, La Opinion "Baldassare has probed as deeply and wisely as anyone ever has into that most fascinating and, at times, most enigmatic of public phenomena, the behavior of the California voter. With A California State of Mind, he has made an indispensable contribution to our understanding of the politics of our time."—Peter Schrag, author of Paradise Lost: California’s Experience, America’s Future "An invaluable book for policy makers in California and nationwide. Baldassare both provides a detailed and thoughtful analysis of the disconnect between Californians and their government and buttresses his argument with a wealth of data. Anyone interested in improving our political life will want to own this book."—Dan Yankelovich, Chairman, Public Agenda and Viewpoint Learning "No one knows how Californians think about politics better than Baldassare does. Anyone interested in California politics should read this book."—Jack Peltason, coauthor of Government by the People and Understanding the Constitution "Backed by stunningly thorough documentation, this book is an essential and sobering primer to understanding why California really is different."—Tom Goldstein, editor of Killing the Messenger "Baldassare has long been one of the most perceptive analysts of politics and public opinion in California. His new book is indispensable reading for anyone who wants to understand the changing political landscape, and the subtle shadings of public attitudes, in the nation’s largest state."—Ronald Brownstein, political columnist, Los Angeles Times
With Losing Our Democracy, Mark Green reveals how the far and religious right, a coalition of big business and, most shockingly, President Bush and his White House are in the process of undermining our democracy.
The overarching purpose of the project was to enhance recognition among protected area management agencies of the role of strategic communication in managing visitors in protected areas. This involved working closely with managers of terrestrial protected areas in Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia toward developing and delivering purposeful, targeted communication interventions informed by substantiated theory and designed to reduce visitor impacts identified by those agencies as being high priority. This title is also available for FREE download at www.crctourism.com.au
When Orange County, California, filed for Chapter 9 protection on December 6, 1994, it became the largest municipality in United States history to declare bankruptcy. In the first comprehensive analysis of this momentous fiscal crisis, Mark Baldassare uncovers the many twists and turns from the dark days in December 1994 to the financial recovery of June 1996. Utilizing a wealth of primary materials from the county government and Merrill Lynch, as well as interviews with key officials and players in this drama, Mark Baldassare untangles the causes of this $1.64 billion fiasco. He finds three factors critical to understanding the bankruptcy: one, the political fragmentation of the numerous local governments in the area; two, the fiscal conservatism underlying voters' feelings about their tax dollars; three, the financial austerity in state government and in meeting rising state expenditures. Baldassare finds that these forces help to explain how a county known for its affluence and conservative politics could have allowed its cities' school, water, transportation, and sanitation agencies to be held hostage to this failed investment pool. Meticulously examining the events that led up to the bankruptcy, the local officials' response to the fiscal emergency, and the road to fiscal recovery—as well as the governmental reforms engendered by the crisis—When Government Fails is a dramatic and instructive economic morality tale. Eminently readable, it underlines the dangers inherent in a freewheeling bull economy and the imperatives of local and state governments to protect fiscal assets. As Baldassare shows, Orange County need not—and should not—happen again.
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