Marika Santoro's Books

Labor Force Participation in Chile

Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

By: Patrick Blagrave,Marika Santoro

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Labor Force Participation in Chile

Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

By: Patrick Blagrave,Marika Santoro

Gains in labor force participation rates in Chile have slowed in recent years. We examine their determinants using a cohort-model analysis. Allowing for both age- and cohort-specific effects in the context of a seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) approach, we find that age factors play an important role in determining participation decisions, especially for males. For females, we find that strong positive time trends dominate the downward pressure from demographics, although those trends have recently dissipated. In addition, we find that both cohort effects and the business cycle shape participation decisions. Using our cohort-based analysis, we construct projections of participation rates, which suggest population aging will put downward pressure on labor inputs, and thus potential output, in coming years. Further increases in female labor force participation—supported by policies— could more than offset the downward pressure from demographics.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475586876

ISBN 13

9781475586879

Labor Market Issues in the Caribbean

Scope to Mobilize Employment Growth

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil,Mrs.Genevieve Lindow,Mr.Mario Mansilla,Mr.Joel Chiedu Okwuokei,Jochen M. Schmittmann,Qiaoe Chen,Xin Li,Marika Santoro,Solomon Stavis

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Labor Market Issues in the Caribbean

Scope to Mobilize Employment Growth

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil,Mrs.Genevieve Lindow,Mr.Mario Mansilla,Mr.Joel Chiedu Okwuokei,Jochen M. Schmittmann,Qiaoe Chen,Xin Li,Marika Santoro,Solomon Stavis

The paper examines the determinants of employment growth, drawing on data available across a sample of Caribbean countries. To that end, the paper analyzes estimates of the employment-output elasticity and the response of employment growth to major sources of labor market determinants, in the long and short run. The main determinants of employment include government investment and private sector credit, while the major determinants of external performance are real effective exchange rate, the price of major exporting commodities, the number of tourists, and growth in major trading partners. The paper concludes with a menu of policy recommendations and structural reforms towards sustaining high employment growth and higher living standards in the Caribbean.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498347738

ISBN 13

9781498347730

Long-term Gain, Short-Term Pain

Assessing the Potential Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile

By: Marika Santoro

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Long-term Gain, Short-Term Pain

Assessing the Potential Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile

By: Marika Santoro

In this paper, I study the potential economic impact of the 2015-18 structural reform agenda in Chile, using the IMF dynamic general equilibrium model (GIMF). I find that the agenda has the potential to significantly increase Chile’s long-run GDP, although it may have some negative effects in the short term. Ensuring a smooth transition to a higher productive potential depends on three key dimensions: the credibility of the reforms, their effectiveness in closing structural gaps, and their speed of implementation. Badly designed reforms that remove only a very small fraction of the existing structural gaps, at a slow speed, and with little credibility, can greatly reduce the positive impact of the reform agenda on GDP.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151357941X

ISBN 13

9781513579412

Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery

By: Harri Kemp,Mr. Rafael A Portillo,Marika Santoro

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Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery

By: Harri Kemp,Mr. Rafael A Portillo,Marika Santoro

We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify supply and demand shocks in manufacturing, based on the co-movement of surveys on new orders and suppliers’ delivery times. The effects of these shocks on industrial production and GDP are recovered through a combination of local projection methods and the input-output framework in Acemoglu et al. (2016). In the second approach, we use the IMF’s G20 model to gauge the importance of supply shocks in jointly driving activity and inflation surprises. We find that supply disruptions subtracted between 0.5 and 1.2 percent from global value added during the global recovery in 2021, while also adding about 1 percent to global core inflation that same year.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400235672

Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of its Parts? Strengthening Caribbean Regional Integration

By: Abdullah Al-Hassan,Mary E. Burfisher,Mr.Julian T Chow,Ding Ding,Fabio Di Vittorio,Dmitriy Kovtun,Arnold McIntyre,Ms.Inci Ötker,Marika Santoro,Lulu Shui,Karim Youssef

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Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of its Parts? Strengthening Caribbean Regional Integration

By: Abdullah Al-Hassan,Mary E. Burfisher,Mr.Julian T Chow,Ding Ding,Fabio Di Vittorio,Dmitriy Kovtun,Arnold McIntyre,Ms.Inci Ötker,Marika Santoro,Lulu Shui,Karim Youssef

Deeper economic integration within the Caribbean has been a regional policy priority since the establishment of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the decision to create the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME). Implementation of integration initiatives has, however, been slow, despite the stated commitment of political leaders. The “implementation deficit” has led to skepticism about completing the CSME and controversy regarding its benefits. This paper analyzes how Caribbean integration has evolved, discusses the obstacles to progress, and explores the potential benefits from greater integration. It argues that further economic integration through liberalization of trade and labor mobility can generate significant macroeconomic benefits, but slow progress in completing the institutional arrangements has hindered implementation of the essential components of the CSME and progress in economic integration. Advancing institutional integration through harmonization and rationalization of key institutions and processes can reduce the fixed costs of institutions, providing the needed scale and boost to regional integration. Greater cooperation in several functional policy areas where the region is facing common challenges can also provide low-hanging fruit, creating momentum toward full integration as the Community continues to address the obstacles to full economic integration.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513525867

ISBN 13

9781513525860

Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change in the Maldives

By: Mr. Giovanni Melina,Marika Santoro

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Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change in the Maldives

By: Mr. Giovanni Melina,Marika Santoro

The increased likelihood of adverse climate-change-related shocks calls for building resilient infrastructure in the Maldives. Fulfilling these infrastructure needs requires a comprehensive analysis of investment plans, including with respect to their degree of climate resilience, their impact on future economic prospects, and their funding costs and sources. This paper analyzes these challenges, through calibrating a general equilibrium model. The main finding is that there is a significant dividend associated with building resilient infrastructure. Under worsened climate conditions, the cumulative output gain from investing in more resilient technologies increases up to a factor of two. However, given the Maldives’ limited fiscal space, particularly after COVID-19, the international community should also step up cooperation efforts. We also show that it is financially convenient for donors to help build resilience prior to the occurrence of a natural disasters rather than helping finance the reconstruction ex-post.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513582445

ISBN 13

9781513582443

Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean

Stocktaking and Policy Challenges

By: Mr.Gabriel Di Bella,Mr.Lawrence Norton,Mr.Joseph Ntamatungiro,Ms.Sumiko Ogawa,Issouf Samaké,Marika Santoro

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Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean

Stocktaking and Policy Challenges

By: Mr.Gabriel Di Bella,Mr.Lawrence Norton,Mr.Joseph Ntamatungiro,Ms.Sumiko Ogawa,Issouf Samaké,Marika Santoro

The oil price decline creates an opportunity to dismantle energy subsidies, which escalated with high oil prices. This paper assesses energy subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean—about 1.8 percent of GDP in 2011–13 (approximately evenly split between fuel and electricity), and about 3.8 percent of GDP including negative externalities. Countries with poorer institutions subsidize more. Energy-rich countries subsidize fuel more, but low-income countries are more likely to subsidize electricity, as are Central America and the Caribbean. Energy subsidies impose fiscal costs, hurting SOEs, competitiveness, and distribution. The paper overviews country experience with subsidy reform, drawing lessons.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484365364

ISBN 13

9781484365366

Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America

By: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan,Sandra Lizarazo,Marika Santoro,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Mr. Mauricio Vargas

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Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America

By: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan,Sandra Lizarazo,Marika Santoro,Mr. Frederik G Toscani,Mr. Mauricio Vargas

Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.

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123

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484326091

ISBN 13

9781484326091

Estimating Potential Output in Chile

A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors

By: Patrick Blagrave,Marika Santoro

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Estimating Potential Output in Chile

A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors

By: Patrick Blagrave,Marika Santoro

Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 21⁄2 percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475544936

ISBN 13

9781475544930

Will the Demand for Assets Fall When the Baby Boomers Retire?

By: Marika Santoro

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Will the Demand for Assets Fall When the Baby Boomers Retire?

By: Marika Santoro

In the decade to come, an important development will be the retirement of a substantial proportion of the baby-boom generation ¿ the segment of the population born between 1946 and 1964, whose oldest members turned 62 in 2008. This report focuses on what could happen in one area: the demand for assets, particularly financial assets, such as stocks and bonds. Some economists have warned of the possibility of a dramatic decline in demand as baby boomers sell off their assets to finance consumption in retirement; they assert that the sell-off could cause a dramatic decline in prices. An evaluation of the evidence, however, indicates that such a dramatic decline in asset demand and prices is unlikely. Charts and tables.

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DIANE Publishing

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ISBN 10

1437922333

ISBN 13

9781437922332

Pension Reform Options in Chile

Some Tradeoffs

By: Marika Santoro

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Pension Reform Options in Chile

Some Tradeoffs

By: Marika Santoro

In this paper, we study the macroeconomic impact of pension reform options in Chile, using a dynamic general equilibrium model. The main reform proposal considers raising contributions (employer side) and vehicle additional proceeds to individual accounts and to increase the support of solidarity pensions. We model increased contributions as a labor tax. We find the impact of this reform on GDP to be negative in the near to the medium run, with GDP declining by 0.5 percent by 2021, as a result of labor tax distortions which lead to a fall in labor supply, investment and to a loss in competitiveness. We also illustrate the main macroeconomics tradeoffs by analyzing alternative reforms, such as using revenues only to improve future pensions or a reform package funded by a mix of higher contributions and indirect taxes.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475586833

ISBN 13

9781475586831

Labor Force Participation in Chile

Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

By: Patrick Blagrave,Marika Santoro

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Labor Force Participation in Chile

Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

By: Patrick Blagrave,Marika Santoro

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475586213

ISBN 13

9781475586213

Chile

Selected Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

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Chile

Selected Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This Selected Issues paper examines the effect of lower copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. This paper discusses the copper outlook and suggests that the fall in copper prices is likely to have a persistent (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth. It argues that copper prices are unlikely to return to historical highs in the near future. The paper also provides theoretical and empirical evidence supporting the view that long-term GDP growth will not be affected, but the transition toward a lower GDP level can take up to a decade.

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