Marialuz Moreno Badia's Books

Fiscal Performance, Institutional Design and Decentralization in European Union Countries

By: Mr.Julio Escolano,Luc Eyraud,Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Juliane Sarnes,Ms.Anita Tuladhar

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Fiscal Performance, Institutional Design and Decentralization in European Union Countries

By: Mr.Julio Escolano,Luc Eyraud,Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Juliane Sarnes,Ms.Anita Tuladhar

This paper analyzes the impact of decentralization on overall fiscal performance in the European Union, taking into account fiscal institutional arrangements. We find that spending decentralization has been associated with sizably better fiscal performance, especially when transfer dependency of subnational governments is low. However, subnational fiscal rules do not seem to be associated with better performance.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463943644

ISBN 13

9781463943646

Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

By: Oya Celasun,Francesco Grigoli,Ms.Keiko Honjo,Mr.Javier Kapsoli,Mr.Alexander Klemm,Mr.Bogdan Lissovolik,Jan Luksic,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Joana Pereira,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Baoping Shang,Ms.Yulia Ustyugova

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Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

Latin America’s bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the region have not yet rebuilt their fiscal space, despite buoyant commodity revenues and relatively strong growth in the aftermath of the crisis. Using the experience of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, this paper examines the lessons and legacies of the crisis by addressing the following questions, among others: How much did the 2009 fiscal stimulus help growth? What shortcomings were revealed in the fiscal policy frameworks? What institutional reforms are now needed to provide enduring anchors for fiscal policy? How much rebuilding of buffers is needed going forward?

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475569572

ISBN 13

9781475569575

Competitiveness in the Southern Euro Area

France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain

By: Mr.Yuan Xiao,Mr.Werner Schule,Mr.Herman Z. Bennett,Marialuz Moreno Badia,Mr.Julio Escolano,Ms.Stefania Fabrizio,MissEva Gutierrez,Mr.Bogdan Lissovolik,Mr.Stephen Tokarick,Mr.Iryna V. Ivaschenko

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Competitiveness in the Southern Euro Area

France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain

By: Mr.Yuan Xiao,Mr.Werner Schule,Mr.Herman Z. Bennett,Marialuz Moreno Badia,Mr.Julio Escolano,Ms.Stefania Fabrizio,MissEva Gutierrez,Mr.Bogdan Lissovolik,Mr.Stephen Tokarick,Mr.Iryna V. Ivaschenko

This collection of studies analyzes developments in nonprice external competitiveness of France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. While France, Italy, and Portugal have experienced substantial export market share losses, Greece and Spain performed relatively well. Export market share losses appear associated with rigidities in resource allocation (sectoral, geographical, technological) relative to peers and lower productivity gains in high value-added sectors. Disaggregated analysis of goods and services export markets provides insights on aspects such as quality, market concentration, growth of destination markets, and geographical and sectoral diversification. Also, increased import penetration, offshoring and FDI could improve productivity and export performance.

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116

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

145186972X

ISBN 13

9781451869729

Fiscal Monitor, October 2016

Debt: Use It Wisely

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia

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Fiscal Monitor, October 2016

Debt: Use It Wisely

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia

Drawing on an expanded data set covering emerging markets and low-income countries as well as advanced economies, this issue examines the extent and makeup of global debt and asks what role fiscal policy can play in facilitating the adjustment. The analytical framework explicitly models the interlinkages between private and public debt in analyzing the role of fiscal policy in the deleveraging process. Country case studies provide useful insights on what fiscal policy should and should not do to facilitate deleveraging while minimizing the drag on the economy.

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110

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475537093

ISBN 13

9781475537093

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

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Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484353595

ISBN 13

9781484353592

Debt Is Not Free

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Paulo Medas,Pranav Gupta,Yuan Xiang

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Debt Is Not Free

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Paulo Medas,Pranav Gupta,Yuan Xiang

With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513523767

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9781513523767

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

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Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

This paper documents a form of private sector bailout that is much more common (and yet unnoticed) than the typical bank bailout. Building on the newly-created Global Debt Database, we show that excess private debt systematically turns into higher public debt, regardless of whether the credit boom resulted in a crisis or a more orderly deleveraging process. This debt migration operates mainly through growth rather than explicit bailouts: private deleveraging weighs on activity, prompting a countercyclical government response to support economic activity. Ultimately, whether this debt substitution results in a net increase or a net decline of overall indebtedness in the economy depends on the extent of the growth slowdown during the deleveraging spell. These findings suggest that markets and policymakers should move away from looking at private and sovereign debt in silos and pay closer attention to the total stock of debt in the economy, as the line between the two tends to become blurry.

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1484361652

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9781484361658

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba

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Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba

According to U.N. estimates, low-income countries will have to increase their annual public spending by up to 30 percent of GDP to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising the question of whether they can do it all. This paper develops a new metric of fiscal space in low-income countries that accounts for macroeconomic uncertainty, allowing us to assess whether those spending needs can be accommodated. Illustrative simulations based on this methodology imply that, even under benign conditions, the fiscal space available in lowincome countries is likely insufficient to undertake the spending needed to achieve the SDGs. Improving public investment efficiency and domestic revenue mobilization can somewhat narrow the gap but it will require major efforts relative to recent trends.

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1475599048

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9781475599046

Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets

Can Fiscal Policy Help?

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo

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Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets

Can Fiscal Policy Help?

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo

A number of emerging markets have experienced substantial real exchange rate appreciation in recent years, generating concerns about competitiveness and prompting policymakers to respond with a combination of mitigating policies. This paper shows that fiscal policy can play a role in alleviating these pressures. Using a sample of 28 emerging market economies over 1983-2011, we estimate a dynamic model of the real exchange rate and find that a permanent fiscal adjustment may reduce appreciation pressures over the long term. Furthermore, the composition of public spending matters, with reductions in current spending playing a key role. To illustrate the importance of these findings, the paper focuses on the case of Brazil. Our results suggest that maintaining fiscal discipline while increasing public investment in Brazil is likely to ease real appreciation pressures, highlighting the importance of tackling long-standing budget rigidities.

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International Monetary Fund

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1475523572

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9781475523577

Too Small to Fail? Subnational Spending Pressures in Europe

By: Luc Eyraud,Marialuz Moreno Badia

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Too Small to Fail? Subnational Spending Pressures in Europe

By: Luc Eyraud,Marialuz Moreno Badia

The purpose of this paper is to assess whether expenditure decentralization has contributed to weakening fiscal performance in Europe. Using a panel of EU15 countries for the period 1995-2011, we estimate three econometric models and ask the following questions: (1) does the form of spending decentralization affect the general government fiscal balance?; (2) is there evidence of spending duplication?; and (3) are soft budget constraints prevalent at the subnational level in Europe? Our results indicate that current decentralization models may have some shortcomings and efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation would require improvements in three areas: better matching subnational spending and revenues; reshaping some expenditure assignments to reduce overlap; and improving the effectiveness of institutional arrangements at the subnational level.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475578156

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9781475578157

Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China

By: Mr. Waikei R Lam,Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia

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Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China

By: Mr. Waikei R Lam,Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia

In this paper, we present the most comprehensive estimates of China’s government balance sheet to date. Based on these estimates, we show how major shifts in fiscal policy over the last two decades have shaped the health of the public sector prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that, at US$12.5 trillion, China has the largest stock of financial assets in the world. However, its net financial worth as a percent of GDP—though still higher than the large majority of countries—has declined over the last decade. This trend can be traced back to the turn of the century when China undertook a major restructuring of its state-owned enterprises but left important shortcomings in the intergovernmental fiscal system unaddressed. Compounding these risks, reform momentum stalled in the aftermath of the global financial crisis leading to high leverage and falling profitability among state-owned enterprises.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400248221

The Missing Link Between Financial Constraints and Productivity

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Veerle Slootmaekers

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The Missing Link Between Financial Constraints and Productivity

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Veerle Slootmaekers

The global financial crisis has reopened the debate on the potential spillover effects from the financial sector to the real economy. This paper adds to that debate by providing new evidence on the link between finance and firm-level productivity, focusing on the case of Estonia. We contribute to the literature in two important respects: (i) we look explicitly at the role of financial constraints; and (ii) we develop a methodology that corrects for the misspecification problems of previous studies. Our results indicate that young and highly indebted firms tend to be more financially constrained. Overall, a large number of firms shows some degree of financial constraints, with firms in the primary sector being the most constrained. More importantly, we find that financial constraints do not lower productivity for most sectors.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451872194

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9781451872194

Debt Is Not Free

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Paulo Medas,Pranav Gupta,Yuan Xiang

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Debt Is Not Free

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Paulo Medas,Pranav Gupta,Yuan Xiang

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1513523767

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9781513523767

Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

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Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

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1484361652

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9781484361658

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

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Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

By: Samba Mbaye,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Kyungla Chae

This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than triples the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.

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International Monetary Fund

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1484356527

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9781484356524

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba

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Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba

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International Monetary Fund

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1475599048

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9781475599046

Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China

By: Mr. Waikei R Lam,Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia

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Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China

By: Mr. Waikei R Lam,Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia

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9798400248221

Fiscal Monitor, October 2016

Debt: Use It Wisely

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia

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Fiscal Monitor, October 2016

Debt: Use It Wisely

By: Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia

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110

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International Monetary Fund

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1475537093

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9781475537093

Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

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Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

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1475569572

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9781475569575

Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

By: Oya Celasun

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Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

By: Oya Celasun

Latin America's bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the region have not yet rebuilt their fiscal space, despite buoyant commodity revenues and relatively strong growth in the aftermath of the crisis. Using the experience of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, this paper examines the lessons and legacies of the crisis by addressing the following questions, among others: How much did the 2009 fiscal stimulus help growth? What shortcomings were revealed in the fiscal policy frameworks? What institutional reforms are now needed to provide enduring anchors for fiscal policy? How much rebuilding of buffers is needed going forward?

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1484337662

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9781484337660

The Missing Link Between Financial Constraints and Productivity

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Veerle Slootmaekers

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The Missing Link Between Financial Constraints and Productivity

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Veerle Slootmaekers

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1451872194

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9781451872194

Fiscal Performance, Institutional Design and Decentralization in European Union Countries

By: Mr.Julio Escolano,Luc Eyraud,Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Juliane Sarnes,Ms.Anita Tuladhar

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Fiscal Performance, Institutional Design and Decentralization in European Union Countries

By: Mr.Julio Escolano,Luc Eyraud,Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Juliane Sarnes,Ms.Anita Tuladhar

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International Monetary Fund

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1463943644

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9781463943646

Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets

Can Fiscal Policy Help?

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo

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Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets

Can Fiscal Policy Help?

By: Marialuz Moreno Badia,Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo

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International Monetary Fund

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1475525052

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9781475525052

Debt Dynamics in Emerging and Developing Economies: Is R-G a Red Herring?

By: Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia,Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez,Yuan Xiang

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Debt Dynamics in Emerging and Developing Economies: Is R-G a Red Herring?

By: Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia,Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez,Yuan Xiang

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, debt levels in emerging and developing economies have surged raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Historically, negative interest-growth differentials in these countries have played a debt-stabilizing role. But is this enough to prevent countries from falling into debt distress? Drawing from a sample of 150 emerging and developing economies going back to the 1970s, we find that interest-growth differentials have remained relatively low, dampening debt increases in the run up to a crisis. But in the face of persistent primary deficits, debt service tends to rise abruptly—particularly in emerging markets—and a fiscal crisis ensues. There is also evidence that a large part of the debt build-up around crises stems from valuation effects associated with external debt and the materialization of contingent liabilities. These findings underscore that, though not necessarily a red-herring, low interest-growth differentials cannot fully offset the deleterious effects of large fiscal deficits, forex exposures, or hidden debts.

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