Margaux MacDonald's Books

Financial Sector and Economic Growth in India

By: Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Ms. TengTeng Xu

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Financial Sector and Economic Growth in India

By: Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Ms. TengTeng Xu

India’s financial sector has faced many challenges in recent decades, with a large, negative, and persistent credit to GDP gap since 2012. We examine how cyclical financial conditions affect GDP growth using a growth-at-risk (GaR) approach and analyze the link between bank balance sheets, credit growth, and long-term growth using bank-level panel regressions for both public and private banks. We find that on a cyclical basis, a negative shock to credit or a rise in macro vulnerability all shift the distribution of growth to the left, with lower expected growth and higher negative tail risks; over the long term, the results indicate that higher credit growth, arising from better capitalized banks with lower NPLs, is associated with higher GDP growth.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400216404

The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Asset Prices: The Case of the United Kingdom's EU Membership Referendum

By: Joseph Hanna,Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen,Ms.Margaux MacDonald

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The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Asset Prices: The Case of the United Kingdom's EU Membership Referendum

By: Joseph Hanna,Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen,Ms.Margaux MacDonald

How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of "Leave" result caused British stocks (FTSE All-Share) to decline by 0.004 percent, and the Pound to depreciate by 0.006 percent against the euro. We find negative and significant effects for most sub-sectors, and negative spill-overs to other EU member countries. We show that the differential impact across sectors and countries can be explained by differences in the trade exposures.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513568647

ISBN 13

9781513568645

Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

By: Margaux MacDonald,Michal Ksawery Popiel

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Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

By: Margaux MacDonald,Michal Ksawery Popiel

This paper investigates the effects of unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy. Using recently proposed shadow interest rates to capture unconventional monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) we estimate a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model for Canada - a useful case where foreign shocks can be proxied by U.S. variables alone. We find that, during the ZLB period, Canadian unconventional monetary policy increased output (measured by industrial production) by 0.013 percent per month on average while US unconventional monetary policy raised Canadian output by 0.127 percent per month on average. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of domestic unconventional monetary policy and the strong positive spillover effects that foreign unconventional monetary policies can have in a small open economy.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484330943

ISBN 13

9781484330944

Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Francisco Arizala,Mr.Matthieu Bellon,Ms.Margaux MacDonald

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Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Francisco Arizala,Mr.Matthieu Bellon,Ms.Margaux MacDonald

This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others. Estimates show that in the short run, positive idiosyncratic shocks to regional trading partners’ growth significantly increase growth in the average sub-Saharan African country, while in the long-run the annual impact of growth in regional trading partner’s is smaller in magnitude. Policy implications including the need to support further continent-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed. Actions policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa can take to capture the benefits of these spillovers, while limiting exposure to the associated risks, are also proposed.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513508806

ISBN 13

9781513508801

Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies

By: Corinne Deléchat,Lama Kiyasseh,Ms.Margaux MacDonald,Rui Xu

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Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies

By: Corinne Deléchat,Lama Kiyasseh,Ms.Margaux MacDonald,Rui Xu

This study analyzes the drivers of the use of formal vs. informal financial services in emerging and developing countries using the 2017 Global FINDEX data. In particular, we investigate whether individuals’ choice of financial services correlates with macro-financial and macro-structural policies and conditions, in addition to individual and country characteristics. We start our analysis on middle and low-income countries, and then zoom in on sub-Saharan Africa, currently the region that most relies on informal financial services, and which has the largest uptake of mobile banking. We find robust evidence of an association between macroprudential policies and individuals’ choice of financial access after controlling for personal and country-level characteristics. In particular, macroprudential policies aimed at controlling credit supply seem to be associated with greater resort to informal financial services compared with formal, bank-based access. This highlights the importance for central bankers and financial sector regulators to consider the potential spillovers of monetary policy and financial stability measures on financial inclusion.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513545671

ISBN 13

9781513545677

A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India

By: Jean Chateau,Geetika Dang,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,John A Spray,Sneha D Thube

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A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India

By: Jean Chateau,Geetika Dang,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,John A Spray,Sneha D Thube

Climate change poses challenging policy tradeoffs for India. The country faces the challenge of raising living standards for a population of 1.4 billion while at the same time needing to be a critical contributor to reducing global GHG emissions. The government has implemented numerous policies to promote the manufacturing and use of renewable energy and shift away from coal, but much still needs to be done to reach India’s 2070 net zero goal. Reducing GHG emissions will almost certainly have a negative impact on growth in the short run and have important distributional consequences for individuals and communities who today rely on coal. But with the right policies, these costs—which are non-negligible but dwarfed by the cost of climate change over the next decade if no action is taken—can be significantly curtailed. This paper provides an in depth review of the current climate policy landscape in India and models emissions trajectories under different policy options to reduce GHG emissions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400247002

Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Exploring Different Channels

By: Francisco Arizala,Mr.Matthieu Bellon,Ms.Margaux MacDonald,Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Mustafa Yenice

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Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Exploring Different Channels

By: Francisco Arizala,Mr.Matthieu Bellon,Ms.Margaux MacDonald,Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Mustafa Yenice

After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015–16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth. Regional growth started recovering in 2017, but the question remains of how trends in the economies stuck in low gear will spill over to the countries that have maintained robust growth. This note illuminates the discussion by identifying growth spillover channels. The focus is on trade, banking, financial, remittance, investment, fiscal, and security channels, which are the most prominent and most likely to transmit growth trends across borders. In addition to bringing together findings from a broad array of existing research, the note identifies countries that are the most likely sources of regional spillovers and those that are most likely to be impacted, and provides estimates for the size of these channels. It finds that intraregional trade and remittance flows are an important channel for growth spillovers, while banking channels are less important but will remain a risk going forward. Finally, the note documents other important spillover channels through financial markets contagion, revenue-sharing arrangements in fiscal unions, commodity-pricing policies, corporate investment, and forced migration. The main takeaway is that the level of interdependence among sub-Saharan countries is higher than is generally assumed. Consequently, there is a need for additional emphasis on regional surveillance and spillover analysis, along with traditional bilateral surveillance.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484367146

ISBN 13

9781484367148

Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Mr. Zamid Aligishiev,Ms. Gabriela Cugat,Mr. Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,João Tovar Jalles,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Mr. Giovanni Melina,Mr. Futoshi Narita,Mr. Chris Papageorgiou,Carlo Pizzinelli

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Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Mr. Zamid Aligishiev,Ms. Gabriela Cugat,Mr. Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,João Tovar Jalles,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Mr. Giovanni Melina,Mr. Futoshi Narita,Mr. Chris Papageorgiou,Carlo Pizzinelli

Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400247101

Guaranteeing Trade in a Severe Crisis: Cash Collateral Over Bank Guarantees

By: Antonis Kotidis,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Dimitris Malliaropulos

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Guaranteeing Trade in a Severe Crisis: Cash Collateral Over Bank Guarantees

By: Antonis Kotidis,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Dimitris Malliaropulos

Banks guarantee international trade through letters of credit. This paper analyzes what happens to trade when the critical role of banks as trade guarantors is compromised. Using the case of the Greek capital controls in 2015, the events around which led to a massive loss of confidence in the domestic banking system, we show that firms whose operations were more dependent on domestic banks suffered a steep decline in imports and, subsequently, exports. This operated through letters of credit, which during the capital controls period had to be backed by firms’ own cash collateral rather than the bank guarantee. As a result, cash-poor firms imported relatively less. Public intervention to guarantee transactions is shown to help mitigate some of the decline in imports.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400234415

The Effect of Tariffs in Global Value Chains

By: Johannes Eugster,Ms. Florence Jaumotte,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Mr. Roberto Piazza

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The Effect of Tariffs in Global Value Chains

By: Johannes Eugster,Ms. Florence Jaumotte,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Mr. Roberto Piazza

This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, i.e. positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400201158

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves

By: Philipp Engler,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Mr. Roberto Piazza,Galen Sher

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The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves

By: Philipp Engler,Ms. Margaux MacDonald,Mr. Roberto Piazza,Galen Sher

We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400261794

Foods, Feasts, and Celebrations

By: Margaux Baum,Tehmina Bhote

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Foods, Feasts, and Celebrations

By: Margaux Baum,Tehmina Bhote

Many entries in the historical record and examples from popular culture show nobles, knights, kings, and peasants alike celebrating with food and drink. In this book, medieval agriculture, food preparation, and eating are explored in equal measure. With vivid examples from historical manuscripts, paintings, frescoes, and more, this book opens a window for readers into the culinary worlds and celebratory rituals of the people of the Middle Ages. From typical foods of the common people, to the most dazzling and lavish displays of consumption by kings and queens, this volume is sure to sate readers' appetites for knowledge about the era.

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The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc

Published Date

ISBN 10

1499464711

ISBN 13

9781499464719

The Devil's Opus

By: Margaux Mannion Brown

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The Devil's Opus

By: Margaux Mannion Brown

There are wicked people in this world. Their deeds defy psychiatric explanations, and the extent of their evil has no cure. They create the game to win it, and when they lose, there are grievous consequences. Leo Buckman is a sociopath, a black hole sucking the light out of anyone that comes close to him. Left vulnerable by the sudden death of her husband, Katie Mezzo falls prey to Buckman's grift, eventually becoming his codependent and willing victim. After Katie's brutal murder, the prestigious and socially prominent Mezzo family is left spinning with questions, spiritual devastation, and a lust for revenge.

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