Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro's Books

Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies

By: Juliana Dutra Araujo,Ms.Bin Li,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Luis-Felipe Zanna

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Current Account Norms in Natural Resource Rich and Capital Scarce Economies

By: Juliana Dutra Araujo,Ms.Bin Li,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Luis-Felipe Zanna

The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial development needs and tight external borrowing constraints. By relaxing these constraints and providing a key financing source for public investment in RRDCs, temporary resource revenues might then be associated with current account deficits, or at least low surpluses. This paper develops a neoclassical model with private and public investment and several frictions that capture pervasive features in RRDCs, including absorptive capacity constraints, inefficiencies in investment, and borrowing constraints that can be relaxed when natural resources lower the country risk premium. The model is used to study the role of investment and these frictions in shaping the current account dynamics under windfalls. Since consumption and investment decisions are optimal, the model also serves to provide current account benchmarks (norms). We apply the model to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa and discuss how our results can be used to inform the current account norm analysis pursued at the International Monetary Fund.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484396030

ISBN 13

9781484396032

Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

By: Florian Misch,Mr.Brian Olden,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Lamya Kejji

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Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis

By: Florian Misch,Mr.Brian Olden,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Lamya Kejji

Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innovations in digitalization of government payments and accounting systems mean that real-time daily fiscal data exist in many countries. In this paper, we argue that these data contain valuable, but underutilized and underexploited information. Possible uses include (i) realtime fiscal surveillance which allows for much more timely responses to emerging signs of fiscal stress, and (ii) nowcasting economic activity, which is especially useful in countries where higher frequency GDP statistics are unavailable.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484325931

ISBN 13

9781484325933

Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Ksenia Koloskova

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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Ksenia Koloskova

The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498336191

ISBN 13

9781498336192

Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Bertrand Gruss,Mr.Malhar S Nabar,Mr.Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

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Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Bertrand Gruss,Mr.Malhar S Nabar,Mr.Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

External conditions have been found to influence the tendency of emerging market and developing economies to experience episodes of growth accelerations and reversals. In this paper we study the role of domestic policies and other structural attributes in amplifying or mitigating the effect that shifts in external conditions have on growth patterns in emerging market and developing economies over the past five decades. We find that these economies can enhance the growth impulse from external conditions by strengthening their institutional frameworks and adopting a policy mix that protects trade integration; permits exchange rate flexibility; and ensures that vulnerabilities stemming from high current account deficits and external debt, as well as high public debt, are contained.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

149832035X

ISBN 13

9781498320351

Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Carolina Correa-Caro,Leandro Medina,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Bennett W Sutton

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Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Carolina Correa-Caro,Leandro Medina,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Bennett W Sutton

Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter’s Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structural deficit) interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity affected corporate profitability during the recovery period of the global financial crisis (GFC). Using cross-sectional analyses, our findings indicate that corporate profitability improved significantly after the GFC fiscal stimulus, especially in manufacturing, utilities and retail sectors. Firm size and leverage are also found to be significant in explaining changes in corporate profitability.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484386973

ISBN 13

9781484386972

Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

By: Oya Celasun,Francesco Grigoli,Ms.Keiko Honjo,Mr.Javier Kapsoli,Mr.Alexander Klemm,Mr.Bogdan Lissovolik,Jan Luksic,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Joana Pereira,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Baoping Shang,Ms.Yulia Ustyugova

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Fiscal Policy in Latin America

Lessons and Legacies of the Global Financial Crisis

Latin America’s bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the region have not yet rebuilt their fiscal space, despite buoyant commodity revenues and relatively strong growth in the aftermath of the crisis. Using the experience of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, this paper examines the lessons and legacies of the crisis by addressing the following questions, among others: How much did the 2009 fiscal stimulus help growth? What shortcomings were revealed in the fiscal policy frameworks? What institutional reforms are now needed to provide enduring anchors for fiscal policy? How much rebuilding of buffers is needed going forward?

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475569572

ISBN 13

9781475569575

Exchange Rates and Trade

A Disconnect?

By: Mr.Daniel Leigh,Weicheng Lian,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Rachel Szymanski,Viktor Tsyrennikov,Hong Yang

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Exchange Rates and Trade

A Disconnect?

By: Mr.Daniel Leigh,Weicheng Lian,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Rachel Szymanski,Viktor Tsyrennikov,Hong Yang

We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity of trade volumes are largely stable over time. Economic slack and financial conditions affect the relationship, but there is limited evidence that participation in global value chains has significantly changed the exchange rate–trade relationship over time.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475587562

ISBN 13

9781475587562

Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Mr. Boileau Loko,Nelie Nembot,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

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Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Mr. Boileau Loko,Nelie Nembot,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400219306

Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact

Evidence from Survey Data

By: Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Jan-Christoph Rülke

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Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact

Evidence from Survey Data

By: Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Jan-Christoph Rülke

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455218944

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9781455218943

Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions

By: Bertrand Gruss,Mr.Malhar S Nabar,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

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Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions

By: Bertrand Gruss,Mr.Malhar S Nabar,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484347714

ISBN 13

9781484347713

Gone with the Headwinds

Global Productivity

By: Gustavo Adler,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Ksenia Koloskova,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

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Gone with the Headwinds

Global Productivity

By: Gustavo Adler,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Ksenia Koloskova,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

to come

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475589824

ISBN 13

9781475589825

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

By: Jacopo Cimadomo,Peter Claeys,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

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How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

By: Jacopo Cimadomo,Peter Claeys,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475526016

ISBN 13

9781475526011

Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Anke Weber

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Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Anke Weber

Only a few empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between fiscal multipliers and the underlying state of the economy. This paper investigates this link on a country-by-country basis for the G7 economies (excluding Italy). Our results show that fiscal multipliers differ across countries, calling for a tailored use of fiscal policy. Moreover, the position in the business cycle affects the impact of fiscal policy on output: on average, government spending, and revenue multipliers tend to be larger in downturns than in expansions. This asymmetry has implications for the choice between an upfront fiscal adjustment versus a more gradual approach.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475523920

ISBN 13

9781475523928

The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

By: Aqib Aslam,Ms.Emine Boz,Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Petia Topalova

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The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery

By: Aqib Aslam,Ms.Emine Boz,Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Petia Topalova

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484328981

ISBN 13

9781484328989

Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies

By: Sangyup Choi,Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Saurabh Mishra,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

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Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies

By: Sangyup Choi,Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Saurabh Mishra,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484318439

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9781484318430

Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries

By: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte,Mr.Thomas Baunsgaard,Christine J. Richmond

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Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries

By: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte,Mr.Thomas Baunsgaard,Christine J. Richmond

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475510063

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9781475510065

Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region

By: Carlos Caceres,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Ms.Darlena Tartari Schwegler

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Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region

By: Carlos Caceres,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Ms.Darlena Tartari Schwegler

This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. Governments are another driving force of inflation dynamics mainly through controlled prices and the role of capital expenditure in domestic activity. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463921969

ISBN 13

9781463921965

Inflation Indexation: Current International Practices

By: Vybhavi Balasundharam,Arika Kayastha,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

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Inflation Indexation: Current International Practices

By: Vybhavi Balasundharam,Arika Kayastha,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

his paper presents a new global dataset on current practices for four budget items in terms of indexation to the price level and other nominal variables. Compiling data from documents of select multilateral organizations, governments, and related literature as well as conducting a survey among IMF country desks of 190 country-members, we show how indexation is internationally applied in (i) personal income tax brackets; (ii) pensions; (iii) social assistance programs; and (iv) public wages. The dataset shows that while indexation policies vary significantly across economies, some trends can be identified. For example, indexation is more common on pension and social grants than on taxes, and falls with the degree of economic development. We further discuss some applications of this new dataset. Those include an accounting exercise illustrating the impacts of indexation on fiscal outcomes during episodes of inflation surprises; and an analysis of the association between the overall degree of indexation combining the four budget items and inflation persistence.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400261466

Climate Change and Select Financial Instruments:An Overview of Opportunities and Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Anna Belianska,Nadja Bohme,Kailhao Cai,Yoro Diallo,Saanya Jain,Mr. Giovanni Melina,Ms. Pritha Mitra,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro,Solo Zerbo

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Climate Change and Select Financial Instruments:An Overview of Opportunities and Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Anna Belianska,Nadja Bohme,Kailhao Cai,Yoro Diallo,Saanya Jain,Mr. Giovanni Melina,Ms. Pritha Mitra,Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro,Solo Zerbo

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the region in the world most vulnerable to climate change despite its cumulatively emitting the least amount of greenhouse gases. Substantial financing is urgently needed across the economy—for governments, businesses, and households—to support climate change adaptation and mitigation, which are critical for advancing resilient and green economic development as well as meeting commitments under the Paris Agreement. Given the immensity of SSA’s other development needs, this financing must be in addition to existing commitments on development finance. There are many potential ways to raise financing to meet adaptation and mitigation needs, spanning from domestic revenue mobilization to various forms of international private financing. Against this backdrop, SSA policymakers and stakeholders are exploring sources of financing for climate action that countries may not have used substantially in the past. This Staff Climate Note presents some basic information on opportunities and challenges associated with these financing instruments.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400225208

The Distributive Effects of Land Titleon Labor Supply

Evidence From Brazil

By: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Mauricio Moura,Mr.Caio Piza

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The Distributive Effects of Land Titleon Labor Supply

Evidence From Brazil

By: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Mauricio Moura,Mr.Caio Piza

This paper studies the effects of property-titling on labor supply. The role of legal ownership security is isolated by comparing the effect that being part of, or excluded from, a land title program in a unique quasi-experiment in two similar communities in the Brazilian city of Osasco. Our main innovation is the estimation of the distributive impact of land title on hours worked via the quantile regression methodology and the weighting estimator of Firpo (2007). The estimates suggest that the impact of land-titling on labor supply is heterogeneous and greater for those households with fewer hours worked before the program.

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ISBN 10

1455259365

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9781455259366

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