Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.
Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.
The aim of this monograph is to present a self-contained introduction to some geometric and analytic aspects of the Yamabe problem. The book also describes a wide range of methods and techniques that can be successfully applied to nonlinear differential equations in particularly challenging situations. Such situations occur where the lack of compactness, symmetry and homogeneity prevents the use of more standard tools typically used in compact situations or for the Euclidean setting. The work is written in an easy style that makes it accessible even to non-specialists. After a self-contained treatment of the geometric tools used in the book, readers are introduced to the main subject by means of a concise but clear study of some aspects of the Yamabe problem on compact manifolds. This study provides the motivation and geometrical feeling for the subsequent part of the work. In the main body of the book, it is shown how the geometry and the analysis of nonlinear partial differential equations blend together to give up-to-date results on existence, nonexistence, uniqueness and a priori estimates for solutions of general Yamabe-type equations and inequalities on complete, non-compact Riemannian manifolds.
This book describes very recent results involving an extensive use of analytical tools in the study of geometrical and topological properties of complete Riemannian manifolds. It analyzes in detail an extension of the Bochner technique to the non compact setting, yielding conditions which ensure that solutions of geometrically significant differential equations either are trivial (vanishing results) or give rise to finite dimensional vector spaces (finiteness results). The book develops a range of methods, from spectral theory and qualitative properties of solutions of PDEs, to comparison theorems in Riemannian geometry and potential theory.
The aim of this paper is to analyze some of the relationships between oscillation theory for linear ordinary differential equations on the real line (shortly, ODE) and the geometry of complete Riemannian manifolds. With this motivation the authors prove some new results in both directions, ranging from oscillation and nonoscillation conditions for ODE's that improve on classical criteria, to estimates in the spectral theory of some geometric differential operator on Riemannian manifolds with related topological and geometric applications. To keep their investigation basically self-contained, the authors also collect some, more or less known, material which often appears in the literature in various forms and for which they give, in some instances, new proofs according to their specific point of view.
This book demonstrates the influence of geometry on the qualitative behaviour of solutions of quasilinear PDEs on Riemannian manifolds. Motivated by examples arising, among others, from the theory of submanifolds, the authors study classes of coercive elliptic differential inequalities on domains of a manifold M with very general nonlinearities depending on the variable x, on the solution u and on its gradient. The book highlights the mean curvature operator and its variants, and investigates the validity of strong maximum principles, compact support principles and Liouville type theorems. In particular, it identifies sharp thresholds involving curvatures or volume growth of geodesic balls in M to guarantee the above properties under appropriate Keller-Osserman type conditions, which are investigated in detail throughout the book, and discusses the geometric reasons behind the existence of such thresholds. Further, the book also provides a unified review of recent results in the literature, and creates a bridge with geometry by studying the validity of weak and strong maximum principles at infinity, in the spirit of Omori-Yau’s Hessian and Laplacian principles and subsequent improvements.
Aims to introduce the reader to various forms of the maximum principle, starting from its classical formulation up to generalizations of the Omori-Yau maximum principle at infinity obtained by the authors.
Della Porta has assembled a distinguished group of scholars who have made great strides in illuminating the early phases of the movement. The book includes especially keen analyses of the movement against global capitalism, particularly in its European manifestations." John D. McCarthy, Pennsylvania State University "Della Porta has skillfully coordinated a comparative study in six European countries and the US. Renowned scholars give testimony of the movement in their countries. [This is] the first attempt to document a genuine transnational movement." Bert Klandermans, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam You G-8, we 6 billion!" So went the chant at the international parade leading into the summit in Genoa, Italy. The global justice movement has led to a new wave of protest, building up transnational networks, inventing new strategies of action, constructing new images of democracy, and boldly asserting that "another world is possible". This book examines all this and more with case studies drawn from seven different countries, covering transnational networks and making cross-national comparisons. Leading European and American scholars analyze more than 300 organizations and 5,000 activists, looking at mobilizations that bridge old and new movements and bring politics back to the street. Contributors include: Massimiliano Andretta, Angel Calle, Helene Combes, Donatella della Porta, Nina Eggert, Marco Giugni, Jennifer Hadden, Manuel Jimenez, Raffaele Marchetti, Lorenzo Mosca, Mario Pianta, Herbert Reiter, Christopher Rootes, Dieter Rucht, Clare Saunders, Isabelle Sommier, Sidney Tarrow, Simon Teune, Mundo Yang.
In this book, advanced methods and techniques of monitoring, fault diagnostics, and predictive maintenance for cryogenics are illustrated. In Part I on Background, mainstreams in the related research are reviewed. In Part II of Methods, for monitoring helium distribution and consumption in cryogenic systems for particle accelerators, a virtual flowmeter is presented. Then, for fault diagnostics, two methods, for fault detection on a compressor, and for distributed diagnostics based on a micro-genetic algorithm, are described. Finally, for predictive maintenance, a metaheuristic optimization scheduling algorithm is illustrated. In Part III of Application examples, several practical case studies are described for highlighting the application of the previous methods to cryogenics of particle accelerators at CERN.
This completely revised and updated edition of the one variable part of the author's classic older book "Iteration Theory of Holomorphic Maps on Taut Manifolds" presents the theory of holomorphic dynamical systems on hyperbolic Riemann surfaces from the very beginning of the subject up to the most recent developments. It is intended both as a reference book for the experts and as an accessible gateway to this beautiful theory for Master and Ph.D. students. It also contains extensive historical notes and references for further readings.
A Times Literary Supplement Book of the Year A Marginal Revolution Best Non-Fiction Book of the Year A Seminary Co-op Notable Book of the Year A Times Higher Education Book of the Week A Choice Outstanding Academic Title of the Year Marco Santagata’s Dante: The Story of His Life illuminates one of the world’s supreme poets from many angles—writer, philosopher, father, courtier, political partisan. Santagata brings together a vast body of Italian scholarship on Dante’s medieval world, untangles a complex web of family and political relationships for English readers, and shows how the composition of the Commedia was influenced by local and regional politics. “Reading Marco Santagata’s fascinating new biography, the reader is soon forced to acknowledge that one of the cornerstones of Western literature [The Divine Comedy], a poem considered sublime and universal, is the product of vicious factionalism and packed with local scandal.” —Tim Parks, London Review of Books “This is a wonderful book. Even if you have not read Dante you will be gripped by its account of one of the most extraordinary figures in the history of literature, and one of the most dramatic periods of European history. If you are a Dantean, it will be your invaluable companion forever.” —A. N. Wilson, The Spectator
In the complexity of the current economic context, exports represent the only path that allows Italian SMEs to grow and thrive in the medium to long term. However, the international markets in which they operate are increasingly complex and competitive, and unlike local markets, they are complicated by the presence of barriers and peculiarities related to sales and after-sales management. In this scenario, the Export Manager is a crucial figure in enabling companies to initiate, develop, and man-age the export of goods and services, and more generally, to activate the internationalization process. In this perspective, the book represents a true guidebook for a profession on the rise. From company assessment to market analysis, from defining the entry strategy into target countries to designing the business model, from risk assessment to business plan drafting and implementation to KPI monitoring: for each activity, the authors pragmatically illustrate both the necessary technical skills and the softer managerial capabilities, supported by cases and examples, with-out neglecting the implications of the digitization process that now affects every phase of this multifaceted profession.
Little has been written about the defense of the Kingdom of Northern Italy, and this is the first study in English to detail the two-year conflict (1813-1814) within the larger context of the Napoleonic Wars. The French commander responsible for the defense was Eugene Beauharnais, stepson of Napoleon and son-in-law of the King of Bavaria. Outnumbered three to one, Beauharnais fought an outstanding defensive campaign, covering all of Napoleon's southern front while Napoleon faced off against the main allied armies as they invaded France. This was only Beauharnais's third command, and as a result of his less than stellar performance in his two earlier posts, he had acquired a poor reputation as a leader. Nafziger and Gioannini explain, however, that in this instance Beauharnais proved himself once and for all as the commander of an independent army, defending one of the most important parts of the French Napoleonic Empire. He made full use of geography, keeping his army in being, rather than risking it to seek a decision in the field. Because his stepson held the plains of Italy, Napoleon was able to concentrate his energies upon the evacuation of Germany and to demonstrate his military prowess in France.
The Comprehensive Atlas of Digestive Surgical Operations describes the successive steps of digestive operations, which can be performed in a large regional hospital or a university center. It illustrates and explains the surgical procedures, with anatomical and physiological details, on the digestive tract from esophagus to anus, on the liver, pancreas, spleen, adrenal glands and abdominal wall. The Atlas is aimed at the surgical residents and will enable them to get or rehearse a quick and comprehensive glance in many digestive interventions they will do or assist. However, The Atlas will also be of particular interest for the attending who will supervise his trainees, for students and for all professionals working close to surgeons. All ilustrations are handmade by the author, Professor Marco P. Merlini, who trained in general, visceral, thoracic, vascular surgery and kept a close contact with the development of all digestive specialities that broke through in the last decades. Marco P. Merlini, Senior Consultant, Department of Digestive, Laparoscopic, General Thoracic and Robotic Surgery, CHU-UVC Brugmann, Brussels, Belgium.
Publisdhed in conjuntion with the exhibition: Magnificenza! the Medici, Michelangelo, & the Art of Late Renaissance Florence (In Italy, L'Ombra del genio: Michelangelo e l'arte a Firenze, 1538-1631) ..."--Title page verso.
Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.
Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models. Other key features: Provides an accessible overview of the current most widely used methods for sensitivity analysis. Opens with a detailed worked example to explain the motivation behind the book. Includes a range of examples to help illustrate the concepts discussed. Focuses on implementation of the methods in the software SIMLAB - a freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors. Contains a large number of references to sources for further reading. Authored by the leading authorities on sensitivity analysis.
We estimate a three-country model using 1995-2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany's current account surplus after the launch of the Euro. The most important factors driving the German surplus were positive shocks to the German saving rate and to ROW demand for German exports, as well as German labour market reforms and other positive German aggregate supply shocks. The convergence of REA interest rates to German rates due to the creation of the Euro only had a modest effect on the German current account and on German real activity. The key shocks that drove the rise in the German current account tended to worsen the REA trade balance, but had a weak effect on REA real activity. Our analysis suggests these driving factors are likely to be slowly eroded, leading to a very gradual reduction of the German current account surplus. An expansion in German government consumption and investment would raise German GDP and reduce the current account surplus, but the effects on the surplus are likely to be weak."--Document home page.
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