Marco A Espinosa-Vega's Books

Measuring Financial Access

10 Years of the IMF Financial Access Survey

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Ms.Kazuko Shirono,Mr.Hector Carcel Villanova,MissEsha Chhabra,Ms.Bidisha Das,Ms.Yingjie Fan

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Measuring Financial Access

10 Years of the IMF Financial Access Survey

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Ms.Kazuko Shirono,Mr.Hector Carcel Villanova,MissEsha Chhabra,Ms.Bidisha Das,Ms.Yingjie Fan

This departmental paper marks the 10th anniversary of the IMF Financial Access Survey (FAS). It offers a retrospective of the FAS database, along with some reflections as to its future directions. Since its 2009 launch, the FAS has provided granular data on access to and use of financial services. It is a supply-side database with annual global coverage based on data sourced directly from financial service providers—aimed at supporting policymakers to target and evaluate financial inclusion policies. Its data collection has kept pace with financial innovation, such as the rise of mobile money and growing demand for gender-disaggregated data—and the FAS must continue to evolve.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513538853

ISBN 13

9781513538853

Demographic Changes in Latin America

The Good, the Bad and ...

By: Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea,Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Diego Wachs

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Demographic Changes in Latin America

The Good, the Bad and ...

By: Mr.Santiago Acosta Ormaechea,Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Diego Wachs

The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475595115

ISBN 13

9781475595116

Interconnectedness, Systemic Crises and Recessions

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Mr.Steven Russell

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Interconnectedness, Systemic Crises and Recessions

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Mr.Steven Russell

This relatively simple model attempts to capture and integrate four widely held views about financial crises. [1] Interconnectedness among financial institutions (banks) can play a major role in precipitating systemic financial crises. [2] Lack of information about the quality of bank portfolios also plays a role in precipitating systemic crises. [3] Financial crises, particularly systemic ones, are often followed by severe, lengthy recessions. [4] Loss of confidence in the financial system is partly responsible for the length and severity of these recessions. In the model, banks make decisions about initiating and liquidating risky loans. Interconnectedness among their asset portfolios can obscure information about these portfolios, causing them to make inefficient decisions about liquidation, and about retention of the managers who assess credit risk. These decisions can increase the depth of recessions, and they can produce systemic financial crises. They can also reduce the effectiveness of future bank risk assessment, increasing the probability of lengthy, severe recessions. The government, acting in the interest of current and future depositors, may wish to increase the transparency of bank portfolios by limiting interconnectedness. The optimal degree of regulation, which may depend on depositors’ degree of risk aversion, may not eliminate financial crises.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498386024

ISBN 13

9781498386029

Cross-Border Financial Surveillance

A Network Perspective

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Mr.Juan Sole

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Cross-Border Financial Surveillance

A Network Perspective

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Mr.Juan Sole

Effective cross-border financial surveillance requires the monitoring of direct and indirect systemic linkages. This paper illustrates how network analysis could make a significant contribution in this regard by simulating different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of selected countries. After that, we show that the inclusion of risk transfers could modify the risk profile of entire financial systems, and thus an enriched simulation algorithm able to account for risk transfers is proposed. Finally, we discuss how some of the limitations of our simulations are a reflection of existing information and data gaps, and thus view these shortcomings as a call to improve the collection and analysis of data on cross-border financial exposures.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455200646

ISBN 13

9781455200641

Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through

Is Chile Atypical?

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Mr.Alessandro Rebucci

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Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through

Is Chile Atypical?

By: Marco A Espinosa-Vega,Mr.Alessandro Rebucci

This paper investigates empirically the pass-through of money market interest rates to retail banking interest rates in Chile, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and five European countries. Overall, Chile's pass-through does not appear atypical. Based on a standard error-correction model, we find that, as in most countries considered, Chile's measured pass-through is incomplete. But Chile's pass-through is also faster than in many other countries considered and is comparable to that in the United States. While we find no significant evidence of asymmetry in Chile's pass-through across states of the interest rate or monetary policy cycle, we do find some evidence of parameter instability, around the time of the Asian and Russian crises. However, we do not find evidence that the switch to a more flexible exchange rate regime in 1999 and the "nominalization" of Chile's interest rate targets in 2001 have affected significantly the pass-through process.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451853629

ISBN 13

9781451853629

Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again

By: Mr.Etibar Jafarov,Mr.Rodolfo Maino,Mr.Marco Pani

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Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again

By: Mr.Etibar Jafarov,Mr.Rodolfo Maino,Mr.Marco Pani

Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of the 1990s, as widespread support for interventionist policies gave way to a renewed conception of government as an impartial referee. Financial repression has come back on the agenda with the surge in public debt in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and some countries have reintroduced administrative ceilings on interest rates. By distorting market incentives and signals, financial repression induces losses from inefficiency and rent-seeking that are not easily quantified. This study attempts to assess some of these losses by estimating the impact of financial repression on growth using an updated index of interest rate controls covering 90 countries over 45 years. The results suggest that financial repression poses a significant drag on growth, which could amount to 0.4-0.7 percentage points.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513516019

ISBN 13

9781513516011

Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Challenges Following the 2008-09 Global Crisis: Challenges Following the 2008-09 Global Crisis

By: Mr.Marco Pinon,Mr.Alejandro Lopez Mejia,M. (Mario) Garza,Mr.Fernando L Delgado

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Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Challenges Following the 2008-09 Global Crisis: Challenges Following the 2008-09 Global Crisis

By: Mr.Marco Pinon,Mr.Alejandro Lopez Mejia,M. (Mario) Garza,Mr.Fernando L Delgado

Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic coped well with the global financial crisis of 2008-09. The impact was generally less severe and shorter lived than in previous episodes, the balance of payments adjustment was orderly, and the stability of the financial system was not compromised. This resilience can be attributed to a large extent to the strengthening of the fiscal frameworks, monetary management, and financial reforms conducted in the years preceding the global crisis. Nevertheless, the region faces considerable challenges for the period ahead, including the need to raise medium term growth above historical levels and protect macroeconomic and financial stability. This book argues that meeting these challenges will have to come from within, in light of the anticipated modest demand growth from trade partners. Raising growth in the region will depend on the adoption of structural reforms that generate substantial productivity gains. Rebuilding fiscal space and securing debt sustainability will hinge on efforts to increase tax revenue and reorienting spending to social and investment priorities. In the non-officially dollarized economies, it will also be essential to strengthen the monetary policy frameworks to keep inflation low and increase exchange rate flexibility, and improve financial regulation and supervision.

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280

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475572018

ISBN 13

9781475572018

Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Mr.Andre Faria,Mr.Martin Schindler,Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr.Paolo Mauro,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Marco Terrones

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Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Mr.Andre Faria,Mr.Martin Schindler,Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr.Paolo Mauro,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Marco Terrones

Financial globalization has increased dramatically over the past three decades, particularly for advanced economies, while emerging market and developing countries experienced more moderate increases. Divergences across countries stem from different capital control regimes, and factors such as institutional quality and domestic financial development. Although, in principle, financial globalization should enhance international risk sharing, reduce macroeconomic volatility, and foster economic growth, in practice its effects are less clear-cut. This paper envisages a gradual and orderly sequencing of external financial liberalization and complementary reforms in macroeconomic policy framework as essential components of a successful liberalization strategy.

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1589067487

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9781589067486

Book's by Marco A Espinosa-Vega

Measuring Financial Access

Measuring Financial Access

Demographic Changes in Latin America

Demographic Changes in Latin America

Interconnectedness, Systemic Crises and Recessions

Interconnectedness, Systemic Crises and Recessions

Cross-Border Financial Surveillance

Cross-Border Financial Surveillance

Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through

Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through

Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again

Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again

Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization

Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization

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