Analysis of Economic Time Series: A Synthesis integrates several topics in economic time-series analysis, including the formulation and estimation of distributed-lag models of dynamic economic behavior; the application of spectral analysis in the study of the behavior of economic time series; and unobserved-components models for economic time series and the closely related problem of seasonal adjustment. Comprised of 14 chapters, this volume begins with a historical background on the use of unobserved components in the analysis of economic time series, followed by an Introduction to the theory of stationary time series. Subsequent chapters focus on the spectral representation and its estimation; formulation of distributed-lag models; elements of the theory of prediction and extraction; and formulation of unobserved-components models and canonical forms. Seasonal adjustment techniques and multivariate mixed moving-average autoregressive time-series models are also considered. Finally, a time-series model of the U.S. cattle industry is presented. This monograph will be of value to mathematicians, economists, and those interested in economic theory, econometrics, and mathematical economics.
This book, with an overview introduction by Keneth J. Arrow, is the first volume of the proceedings of the World Economic Congress held in Athens, Greece in August/September 1989 under the austpices of the International Economic Association.
Review of welfare economics; Externalities and public goods; Endogenous fertility and potential market failure: false issues; Endogenous fertility and potential market failure: real issues; Children as a capital good; Socially optimal population size: beyond the pareto principle; Directions for further research.
Household and Economy: Welfare Economics of Endogenous Fertility deals with welfare economics and the socially optimal population size, as well as the social consequences of individual choice with respect to family size within each generation. The general equilibrium implications of endogenous fertility for a number of issues of population policy are discussed. In addition to their own consumption, the number of children and the utility of each child is assumed to enter the utility function of the parents. Comprised of 10 chapters, this volume begins with a review of social welfare criteria for optimal population size and the static theory of optimal population size, optimal population growth with exogenous fertility, and the theory of endogenous fertility. The reader is then introduced to the basic principles of welfare economics and the economics of externalities, followed by a summary of the traditional theory of household behavior. Subsequent chapters focus on optimal population size according to various social welfare criteria; real and potential externalities generated by the endogeneity of fertility; and the principal alternative reason for having children: to transfer resources from the present to support the future consumption of parents in old age. The book concludes by assessing the implications of endogenous fertility for within-generation income distribution policies and reflecting on the directions in which future research may be fruitful. This monograph will be of value to economists, social scientists, students of welfare economics, and those who wish to understand the contribution of economic analysis to an improved understanding of population policy.
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