Manasa Patnam's Books

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

By: Jin-Kyu Jung,Manasa Patnam,Anna Ter-Martirosyan

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An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

By: Jin-Kyu Jung,Manasa Patnam,Anna Ter-Martirosyan

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484382498

ISBN 13

9781484382493

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity

By: Emmanouil Kitsios,Manasa Patnam

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Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity

By: Emmanouil Kitsios,Manasa Patnam

We estimate the average fiscal multiplier, allowing multipliers to be heterogeneous across countries or over time and correlated with the size of government spending. We demonstrate that this form of nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity is empirically relevant and address it by estimating a correlated random coefficient model. Using a panel dataset of 127 countries over the period 1994-2011, we show that not accounting for omitted heterogeneity produces a significant downward bias in conventional multiplier estimates. We rely on both crosssectional and time-series variation in spending shocks, exploiting the differential effects of oil price shocks on fuel subsidies, to identify the average government spending multiplier. Our estimates of the average multiplier range between 1.4 and 1.6.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484397371

ISBN 13

9781484397374

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

By: Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko,Manasa Patnam,Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon,Mason A. Porter

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Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

By: Ms.Yevgeniya Korniyenko,Manasa Patnam,Rita Maria del Rio-Chanon,Mason A. Porter

This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity exposures across countries. Use of this approach—that examines simultaneously multiple channels of transmission and their important higher order effects—shows that ignoring the heterogeneity of financial exposures, and simply aggregating all claims, as often done in other studies, can underestimate the extent and effects of financial contagion.The structure of the global financial network has changed since the global financial crisis, impacted by European bank’s deleveraging and higher corporate debt issuance. Still, we find that the structure of the system and contagion remain similar in that network is highly susceptible to shocks from central countries and those with large financial systems (e.g., the USA and the UK). While, individual European countries (excluding the UK) have relatively low impact on shock propagation, the network is highly susceptible to the shocks from the entire euro area. Another important development is the rising role of the Asian countries and the noticeable increase in network susceptibility to shocks from China and Hong Kong SAR economies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484356586

ISBN 13

9781484356586

Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates

By: Juliana Dutra Araujo,Manasa Patnam,Ms.Adina Popescu,Mr.Fabian Valencia,Weijia Yao

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Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates

By: Juliana Dutra Araujo,Manasa Patnam,Ms.Adina Popescu,Mr.Fabian Valencia,Weijia Yao

This paper builds a novel database on the effects of macroprudential policy drawing from 58 empirical studies, comprising over 6,000 results on a wide range of instruments and outcome variables. It encompasses information on statistical significance, standardized magnitudes, and other characteristics of the estimates. Using meta-analysis techniques, the paper estimates average effects to find i) statistically significant effects on credit, but with considerable heterogeneity across instruments; ii) weaker and more imprecise effects on house prices; iii) quantitatively stronger effects in emerging markets and among studies using micro-level data; and iii) statistically significant evidence of leakages and spillovers. Other findings include relatively stronger impacts for tightening than loosening actions and negative effects on economic activity in the near term.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151354540X

ISBN 13

9781513545400

IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers

By: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar,Manasa Patnam

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IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers

By: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar,Manasa Patnam

This paper examines whether IMF lending is associated with increases in outflows to offshore financial centers (OFCs), known for bank secrecy and asset protection, relative to other international destinations. Using quarterly data from the BIS on bilateral bank deposits, we are unable to detect any positive and statistically significant effect of IMF loan disbursements on bank deposits in OFCs. The result holds even after restricting the sample to the duration of the IMF program, where disbursement quarters and non-disbursement quarters should be subject to similar degrees of macroeconomic stress. It is also robust to using the scheduled tranche of disbursements as an instrument for actual disbursements. While the effects vary by the type and conditionality of the IMF program, as well as the amount of lending, none of the effects are found to be positive and statistically significant. We also estimate whether the recent surge in emergency lending, during the Covid-19 crisis, is associated with an increase in outflows to OFCs but find no evidence to support this.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513573543

ISBN 13

9781513573540

India’s Approach to Open Banking: Some Implications for Financial Inclusion

By: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Manasa Patnam

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India’s Approach to Open Banking: Some Implications for Financial Inclusion

By: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Manasa Patnam

We examine how the development of the digital infrastructure known as the “India Stack”—including an interoperable payments system, a universal digital ID, and other features—is delivering on the government’s objective to expand the provision of financial services. While each individual component of the India Stack is important, we argue that its key overarching feature is a foundational approach of providing extensive public infrastructures and standards that generates important synergies across the layers of the Stack. Until recently, a large share of India’s population lacked access to formal banking services and was largely reliant on cash for financial transactions. The expansion of mobile-based financial services that enable simple and convenient ways to save and conduct financial transactions has provided a novel alternative for expanding the financial net. The Stack’s improved digital infrastructures have already allowed for a rapid increase in the use of digital payments and the entry of a range of competitors including fintech and bigtech firms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513570684

ISBN 13

9781513570686

Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience

By: Mr. Anil Ari,Philipp Engler,Gloria Li,Manasa Patnam,Ms. Laura Valderrama

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Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience

By: Mr. Anil Ari,Philipp Engler,Gloria Li,Manasa Patnam,Ms. Laura Valderrama

The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine significantly increased costs for European firms, prompting governments to introduce a range of support schemes. Although energy prices had eased by early 2023, uncertainty around prices remains unusually large. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the case for government intervention and identifies best practices with a view to improving the design of existing energy support schemes, facilitating exit from those schemes, and preparing policymakers for a downside scenario in which energy prices flare up again. The paper argues that support should be limited in size, strictly temporary in nature, narrowly targeted, and accompanied by strong safeguards and conditionality, while preserving price signals as much as possible to encourage energy conservation. Finally, the paper reviews recent support schemes introduced by European governments in light of the identified best practice considerations.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400255007

Book's by Manasa Patnam

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach

Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates

Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates

IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers

IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers

India’s Approach to Open Banking: Some Implications for Financial Inclusion

India’s Approach to Open Banking: Some Implications for Financial Inclusion

Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience

Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience

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