Magda Kandil's Books

Labor Market Issues in the Caribbean

Scope to Mobilize Employment Growth

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil,Mrs.Genevieve Lindow,Mr.Mario Mansilla,Mr.Joel Chiedu Okwuokei,Jochen M. Schmittmann,Qiaoe Chen,Xin Li,Marika Santoro,Solomon Stavis

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Labor Market Issues in the Caribbean

Scope to Mobilize Employment Growth

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil,Mrs.Genevieve Lindow,Mr.Mario Mansilla,Mr.Joel Chiedu Okwuokei,Jochen M. Schmittmann,Qiaoe Chen,Xin Li,Marika Santoro,Solomon Stavis

The paper examines the determinants of employment growth, drawing on data available across a sample of Caribbean countries. To that end, the paper analyzes estimates of the employment-output elasticity and the response of employment growth to major sources of labor market determinants, in the long and short run. The main determinants of employment include government investment and private sector credit, while the major determinants of external performance are real effective exchange rate, the price of major exporting commodities, the number of tourists, and growth in major trading partners. The paper concludes with a menu of policy recommendations and structural reforms towards sustaining high employment growth and higher living standards in the Caribbean.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498347738

ISBN 13

9781498347730

Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the existence of structural constraints, implying that positive demand shocks feed predominantly into prices while negative demand shocks mainly affect output. The high variability of aggregate demand in Caribbean countries, frequently exposed to shocks that are exacerbated by pro-cyclical policy stance, tends to create an upward bias on inflation and a downward bias on real output growth, on average, over time. The analysis highlights the benefits of eliminating structural rigidities responsible for asymmetric real and inflationary effects and points to the dangers of procyclical macroeconomic policies that exacerbate the adverse effects of demand variability.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484359690

ISBN 13

9781484359693

Determinants of Inflation in GCC

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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Determinants of Inflation in GCC

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in government spending is easing capacity constraints and will ultimately help to moderate price inflation.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451872291

ISBN 13

9781451872293

Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region

By: Mr.Sami Ben Naceur,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region

By: Mr.Sami Ben Naceur,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

The 1988 Basel I Accord set the common requirements of bank capital to promote the soundness and stability of the international banking system. The agreement required banks to hold capital in proportion to their perceived credit risks, and this requirement may have caused a “credit crunch,” a significant reduction in the supply of credit. We investigate the direct link between the implementation of the Basel I Accord and lending activities, using a data set spanning annual observations covering 1989–2004 for banks in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. The results provide clear support for a significant increase in credit growth following the implementation of capital regulations, in general. Despite higher capital adequacy ratios, banks expanded credit and asset growth. Credit growth appears to be driven by demand fluctuations attributed to real growth, cost of borrowing, and exchange rate risk. Overall, the effects of macroeconomic variables, in contrast to capital adequacy, appear to be more dominant in determining credit growth, regardless of the capital adequacy ratio, and regardless of variation across banks by nationality, ownership, and listing.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484354478

ISBN 13

9781484354476

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

Across a sample of thirty four emerging countries, the evidence shows the frequent existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal impulse. However, the scope for countercyclical policy increases with the availability of international reserves as it enhances credibility and mitigates concerns about the effect of expansionary fiscal policy on the cost of borrowing and debt service. The paper also examines the effectiveness of the fiscal policy in emerging countries in the short- and long-run and its underlying conditions, which does not appear to be uniform. In some cases, contractionary fiscal policy could stimulate growth in the short-run, if fiscal tightness lowers the cost of borrowing and debt service, and mitigates concerns about debt sustainability. However, an increase in international reserves is evident to mitigate these concerns. On the other hand, high inflation increases concerns about the impact of fiscal spending on inflationary expectations and the cost of borrowing, countering the effectiveness of the fiscal stimulus on output growth in the short-run. Where the debt burden is high, fiscal expansion has a longlasting negative effect on real growth.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455200824

ISBN 13

9781455200825

The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices

Evidence From Developing Countries

By: Ida Aghdas Mirzaie,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices

Evidence From Developing Countries

By: Ida Aghdas Mirzaie,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Anticipated exchange rate depreciation, through the supply channel, has limited effects on output growth and inflation. Unanticipated currency fluctuations appear more significant, with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451860188

ISBN 13

9781451860184

The Wage-Price Spiral

Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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The Wage-Price Spiral

Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrates patterns of the wage-price spiral and accompanying fluctuations. During economic expansions, the overlap of nominal adjustments in labor and product markets prolongs output expansion while maintaining or increasing the standard of living. In contrast, structural and institutional settings appear to have moderated the severity of the effects of contractionary demand shocks on real output growth and the standard of living in the variety of countries under investigation.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451858019

ISBN 13

9781451858013

The Wage-Price Spiral

Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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The Wage-Price Spiral

Industrial Country Evidence and Implications

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451858019

ISBN 13

9781451858013

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455200824

ISBN 13

9781455200825

Determinants of Inflation in GCC

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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Determinants of Inflation in GCC

By: Mrs.Hanan Morsy,Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451872291

ISBN 13

9781451872293

Demand-Side Stabilization Policies

What is the Evidence of their Potential?

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

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Demand-Side Stabilization Policies

What is the Evidence of their Potential?

By: Ms.Magda E. Kandil

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth trend results, on average, in a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher variability of monetary shocks results, on average, in an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results indicate the desirability of avoiding large fluctuations over time in either government spending or the money supply.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451860005

ISBN 13

9781451860009

Book's by Magda Kandil

Labor Market Issues in the Caribbean

Labor Market Issues in the Caribbean

Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean

Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean

Determinants of Inflation in GCC

Determinants of Inflation in GCC

Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region

Basel Capital Requirements and Credit Crunch in the MENA Region

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices

The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices

The Wage-Price Spiral

The Wage-Price Spiral

The Wage-Price Spiral

The Wage-Price Spiral

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries

Determinants of Inflation in GCC

Determinants of Inflation in GCC

Demand-Side Stabilization Policies

Demand-Side Stabilization Policies

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