The 5th edition of Ross's Simulation continues to introduce aspiring and practicing actuaries, engineers, computer scientists and others to the practical aspects of constructing computerized simulation studies to analyze and interpret real phenomena. Readers learn to apply results of these analyses to problems in a wide variety of fields to obtain effective, accurate solutions and make predictions about future outcomes. This latest edition features all-new material on variance reduction, including control variables and their use in estimating the expected return at blackjack and their relation to regression analysis. Additionally, the 5th edition expands on Markov chain monte carlo methods, and offers unique information on the alias method for generating discrete random variables. By explaining how a computer can be used to generate random numbers and how to use these random numbers to generate the behavior of a stochastic model over time, Ross's Simulation, 5th edition presents the statistics needed to analyze simulated data as well as that needed for validating the simulation model. - Additional material on variance reduction, including control variables and their use in estimating the expected return at blackjack and their relation to regression analysis - Additional material and examples on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods - Unique material on the alias method for generating discrete random variables - Additional material on generating multivariate normal vectors
Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming presents the basic theory and examines the scope of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. The book begins with a chapter on various finite-stage models, illustrating the wide range of applications of stochastic dynamic programming. Subsequent chapters study infinite-stage models: discounting future returns, minimizing nonnegative costs, maximizing nonnegative returns, and maximizing the long-run average return. Each of these chapters first considers whether an optimal policy need exist—providing counterexamples where appropriate—and then presents methods for obtaining such policies when they do. In addition, general areas of application are presented. The final two chapters are concerned with more specialized models. These include stochastic scheduling models and a type of process known as a multiproject bandit. The mathematical prerequisites for this text are relatively few. No prior knowledge of dynamic programming is assumed and only a moderate familiarity with probability— including the use of conditional expectation—is necessary.
Written by Sheldon Ross and Erol Peköz, this text familiarises you with advanced topics in probability while keeping the mathematical prerequisites to a minimum. Topics covered include measure theory, limit theorems, bounding probabilities and expectations, coupling and Stein's method, martingales, Markov chains, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. No other text covers all these topics rigorously but at such an accessible level - all you need is an undergraduate-level understanding of calculus and probability. New to this edition are sections on the gambler's ruin problem, Stein's method as applied to exponential approximations, and applications of the martingale stopping theorem. Extra end-of-chapter exercises have also been added, with selected solutions available.This is an ideal textbook for students taking an advanced undergraduate or graduate course in probability. It also represents a useful resource for professionals in relevant application domains, from finance to machine learning.
Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random variable, conditional probability, and conditional expectation. This is followed by discussions of stochastic processes, including Markov chains and Poison processes. The remaining chapters cover queuing, reliability theory, Brownian motion, and simulation. Many examples are worked out throughout the text, along with exercises to be solved by students. This book will be particularly useful to those interested in learning how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. Ideally, this text would be used in a one-year course in probability models, or a one-semester course in introductory probability theory or a course in elementary stochastic processes. New to this Edition: - 65% new chapter material including coverage of finite capacity queues, insurance risk models and Markov chains - Contains compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries containing several sections in the new exams - Updated data, and a list of commonly used notations and equations, a robust ancillary package, including a ISM, SSM, and test bank - Includes SPSS PASW Modeler and SAS JMP software packages which are widely used in the field Hallmark features: - Superior writing style - Excellent exercises and examples covering the wide breadth of coverage of probability topics - Real-world applications in engineering, science, business and economics
This market leading introduction to probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its many diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. The outstanding problem sets are a hallmark feature of this text. *NEW - Discussions of important topics including: - The odds-ratio. - Independence is a symmetric relation. - Exchangeable random variables. *NEW - Chapter Exercises are reorganized and expanded to benefit students: - The more mechanical Problems now come before the Theoretical Exercises. - Many new problems (over 150) have been added to the text-many with multiple parts. *NEW - Self-Test Problems and Exercises now conclude the Chapter Exercises - Complete, worked-out solutions to these new problems appear in Appendix B. *NEW - Many new and updated examples including: - The two girls problem (3j in Chapter 3). - An analysis of the quicksort algorithm (2o in Chapter 7) and (5b, 5d and 5e in Chapter 2), (3c and 7e in Chapter 6), and (6k and 6m in Chapter7). *NEW - Probability Models Disk.Each copy of the book includes a PC Diskette that contains six probability models that are referenced in th
In 1818 John Ross led an expedition to search for the Northwest Passage. He got as far as Baffin Bay, but when he reached the only practicable entrance to the passage he declared it to be no more than a bay enclosed by mountains. In subsequent years he was widely derided for that error and carried the scars of public and professional humiliation for the rest of his life. In 1829 he mounted a private expedition to search for the passage, during which he became trapped in the Canadian Arctic and survived a four-year ordeal of isolation and hardship. He proved that whatever his shortcomings as an explorer, he could never be accused of lacking courage. James Clark Ross was one of the most experienced and respected explorers of his day. He led or took part in eight expeditions to the Arctic, including John Ross' 1818 and 1829 expeditions and three with the great explorer William Edward Parry. He also led a highly successful scientific expedition to the Antarctic in 1839-43. His many important discoveries included locating the North Magnetic Pole, and he ensured the presence of the Ross family name throughout both polar regions: Ross Island, Ross Ice Shelf, and Ross Sea in the Antarctic; James Ross Strait, Ross Bay, Ross Point, and Rossøya in the Arctic. Drawing on family papers and extensive research, M.J. Ross traces the careers of these two very different men, highlighting their achievements and defeats, and presents a detailed picture of their private lives.
Today’s busier, faster society is waging an undeclared war on childhood. With too much stuff, too many choices, and too little time, children can become anxious, have trouble with friends and school, or even be diagnosed with behavioral problems. Now internationally renowned family consultant Kim John Payne helps parents reclaim for their children the space and freedom that all kids need for their attention to deepen and their individuality to flourish. Simplicity Parenting offers inspiration, ideas, and a blueprint for change: • Streamline your home environment. Reduce the amount of toys, books, and clutter—as well as the lights, sounds, and general sensory overload. • Establish rhythms and rituals. Discover ways to ease daily tensions, create battle-free mealtimes and bedtimes, and tell if your child is overwhelmed. • Schedule a break in the schedule. Establish intervals of calm and connection in your child’s daily torrent of constant doing. • Scale back on media and parental involvement. Manage your children’s “screen time” to limit the endless deluge of information and stimulation. A manifesto for protecting the grace of childhood, Simplicity Parenting is an eloquent guide to bringing new rhythms to bear on the lifelong art of raising children.
The role of probability in computer science has been growing for years and, in lieu of a tailored textbook, many courses have employed a variety of similar, but not entirely applicable, alternatives. To meet the needs of the computer science graduate student (and the advanced undergraduate), best-selling author Sheldon Ross has developed the premier probability text for aspiring computer scientists involved in computer simulation and modeling. The math is precise and easily understood. As with his other texts, Sheldon Ross presents very clear explanations of concepts and covers those probability models that are most in demand by, and applicable to, computer science and related majors and practitioners. Many interesting examples and exercises have been chosen to illuminate the techniques presented Examples relating to bin packing, sorting algorithms, the find algorithm, random graphs, self-organising list problems, the maximum weighted independent set problem, hashing, probabilistic verification, max SAT problem, queuing networks, distributed workload models, and many othersMany interesting examples and exercises have been chosen to illuminate the techniques presented
Despite the negative criticism directed at its sentiment, its heartlessness, its superficiality, the picturesque remained in both art and fiction of Victorian England a mode of seeing that even the greatest of the artists and novelists relied upon from time to time so that their viewers and readers could rejoice in the instant recognition of place and character distinctly limned and sometimes subtly enough to elicit sympathy" (Preface). After briefly tracing the development of the theory of the picturesque in the eighteenth-century writings of William Gilpin, Sir Uvedale Price, and Richard Payne Knight and examining how nineteenth-century novelists accommodated aesthetic theory to the practice of fiction, Ross focuses on the use of the picturesque in the works of Sir Walter Scott, Charlotte Bronte, Charles Dickens, George Eliot, and Thomas Hardy. The persistence of the picturesque through novels ranging from Waverley to Jude the Obscure and in writers like Dickens and Eliot, who had little respect for its conventions, attests to its strength and attraction in nineteenth-century literature.
There’s literary success and there’s financial literary success . . . and you can have them both! Do you want to make money with your book? Do you want to make a living as an author? There’s more to doing so than simply writing and publishing your book. Many authors dive into the literary industry without taking time to learn the business side of being an author. This could dramatically hinder your book sales and the money you can make as an author. Without a guide such as this, mastering the art of financial literary success can take you years, and you’ll be sure to make mistakes during the learning phase. Some mistakes could cost you money; other mistakes will keep you from making money. This tool will allow you to avoid those mistakes altogether as well as: - Shorten your learning curve on how to make money as an author - Start making money with your book and literary business . . . now - Provide tips to maximize and monetize your role as an author - “Think outside the book” to make money other ways than book sales This book will not only put you on the path of monetary opportunities, but by following the author’s systems and strategies, you can fund your literary success. To understand the difference between literary success and financial literary success, crack open this remarkable book. You’ll also crack the code to discovering what it feels like to achieve your literary dreams, visions, and goals!
The THIEME Atlas of Anatomy series also features Neck and Internal Organs and Head and Neuroanatomy. Each atlas is available in softcover and hardcover. --Book Jacket.
Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, Fifth Edition is a proven text reference that provides a superior introduction to applied probability and statistics for engineering or science majors. The book lays emphasis in the manner in which probability yields insight into statistical problems, ultimately resulting in an intuitive understanding of the statistical procedures most often used by practicing engineers and scientists. Real data from actual studies across life science, engineering, computing and business are incorporated in a wide variety of exercises and examples throughout the text. These examples and exercises are combined with updated problem sets and applications to connect probability theory to everyday statistical problems and situations. The book also contains end of chapter review material that highlights key ideas as well as the risks associated with practical application of the material. Furthermore, there are new additions to proofs in the estimation section as well as new coverage of Pareto and lognormal distributions, prediction intervals, use of dummy variables in multiple regression models, and testing equality of multiple population distributions. This text is intended for upper level undergraduate and graduate students taking a course in probability and statistics for science or engineering, and for scientists, engineers, and other professionals seeking a reference of foundational content and application to these fields. - Clear exposition by a renowned expert author - Real data examples that use significant real data from actual studies across life science, engineering, computing and business - End of Chapter review material that emphasizes key ideas as well as the risks associated with practical application of the material - 25% New Updated problem sets and applications, that demonstrate updated applications to engineering as well as biological, physical and computer science - New additions to proofs in the estimation section - New coverage of Pareto and lognormal distributions, prediction intervals, use of dummy variables in multiple regression models, and testing equality of multiple population distributions.
A Bible subject concordance that lists scripture references into subjects and also provides the necessary word definitions used in the reference. It is very time-saving and convenient to use by not having to search and locate each reference for each subject.
The THIEME atla of anatomy integrates anatomy and clinical concepts and now includes access to WinkingSkull.com PLUS, the must-have online study aid for learning anatomy. Highlights: organized intuitively, with self-contained guides to specific topics on every two-page spread; hundreds of clinical applications integrated into the anatomical descriptions, emphasizing the critical link between anatomical structure and function; beautifully illustrated with expertly rendered digital watercolors, cross-sections, x-rays, and CT and MRI scans; clearly labeled images help you easily identify each structure; summary tables throughout -- ideal for rapid review; with 1,200 original illustrations, this work features comprehensive coverage of neuroanatomy, skillfully guiding the reader through the anatomy of the head, from cranial bones, ligaments, and joints to muscles, cranial nerves, topographical anatomy, and the anatomy of sensory organs; Winking Skull.com PLUS includes more than 450 anatomy illustrations and radiologic images, 'labels-on, labels-off' function, and timed self-tests"--Page 4 of cover
Atlas of Anatomy contains everything students need to successfully tackle the daunting challenges of anatomy. Complete with 2,200 exquisite, full-color illustrations, the atlas is organized to lead students step-by-step through each region of the body.
The THIEME Atlas of Anatomy integrates anatomy and clinical concepts Organized intuitively, with self-contained guides to specific topics on every two-page spread Hundreds of clinical applications integrated into the anatomical descriptions, emphasizing the vital link between anatomical structure and function Beautifully illustrated with expertly rendered digital watercolors, cross-sections, x-rays, and CT and MRI scans Clearly labeled images help you easily identify each structure Summary tables throughout ideal for rapid review Setting a new standard for the study of anatomy, the THIEME Atlas of Anatomy is more than a collection of anatomical illustrationsit is an indispensable resource for anyone who works with the human body
The THIEME Atlas of Anatomy integrates anatomy and clinical concepts and now includes access to Winkl119Shull.com PLUS, the must-have online study aid for learning anatomy.
A research-based foundational overview of contemporary adult education Foundations of Adult and Continuing Education distills decades of scholarship in the field to provide students and practitioners with an up-to-date practical resource. Grounded in research and focused on the unique needs of adult learners, this book provides a foundational overview of adult education, and an introduction to the organizations and practices developed to support adult learning in a variety of contexts. The discussion also includes select understandings of international adult education, policy, and methods alongside theoretical frameworks, contemporary and historical contexts, and the guiding principles of adult education today. Coverage of emerging issues includes the aging society, social justice, and more, with expert insight from leading authorities in the field. Many adult educators begin practice through the context of their own experiences in the field. This book provides the broader research, theory, and practice needed for a deeper understanding of adult education and its place in society. Learn the key philosophical and theoretical frameworks of adult education Survey the landscape of the field through contemporary and historical foundations Examine key guiding understandings and practices targeted to adult learners Delve into newer concerns including technology, globalization, and more Foundations of Adult and Continuing Education provides an expertly-led overview of the field, and an essential introduction to real-world practice.
Atlas of Anatomy, Third Edition, is the highest quality anatomy atlas available today. With over 1,900 exquisitely detailed illustrations, the Atlas helps you master the details of human anatomy.Key Features:Labels and anatomic terminology are in Latin nomenclatureNEW Sectional and Radiographic Anatomy chapter for each body regionNEW Radiologic images help you connect the anatomy lab to clinical knowledge and practiceNEW Pelvis and Perineum section enhanced and improved making it easier to comprehend one of the most complex anatomic regionsNEW Section on Brain and Nervous System focuses on gross anatomy of the peripheral and autonomic nervous systems as well as the brain and central nervous systemAlso included in this new edition: More than 170 tables summarize key details making them easier to reference and retainMuscle Fact spreads provide origin, insertion, innervation, and actionAn innovative, user-friendly format: every topic covered in two side by side pagesAccess to WinkingSkull.com PLUS, with all images from the book for labels-on and labels-off review and timed self-tests for exam preparation
Ross's classic bestseller, Introduction to Probability Models, has been used extensively by professionals and as the primary text for a first undergraduate course in applied probability. It provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries. A new section (3.7) on COMPOUND RANDOM VARIABLES, that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions. A new section (4.11) on HIDDDEN MARKOV CHAINS, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states. Simplified Approach for Analyzing Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes Additional results on queues relating to the (a) conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; (b) inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues (c) M/G/1 queue with server breakdown Many new examples and exercises.
This 21-day diet offers immediate relief to those who suffer from chronic fatigue and mood swings, plus an engerizing, sound lifetime nutrition program, including: steps to pinpointing food-related problems; how to eat to feel calm, improve memory, and avoid sluggishness; quick-fix snacks, and more. More than 170 delicious, low-fat, high fiber recipes are included. Index, source lists, and charts.
ALERT: Before you purchase, check with your instructor or review your course syllabus to ensure that you select the correct ISBN. Several versions of Pearson's MyLab & Mastering products exist for each title, including customized versions for individual schools, and registrations are not transferable. In addition, you may need a CourseID, provided by your instructor, to register for and use Pearson's MyLab & Mastering products. Packages Access codes for Pearson's MyLab & Mastering products may not be included when purchasing or renting from companies other than Pearson; check with the seller before completing your purchase. Used or rental books If you rent or purchase a used book with an access code, the access code may have been redeemed previously and you may have to purchase a new access code. Access codes Access codes that are purchased from sellers other than Pearson carry a higher risk of being either the wrong ISBN or a previously redeemed code. Check with the seller prior to purchase. -- This leading text's emphasis on school culture, teachers as adult learners, developmental leadership, democratic education, and collegial supervision has helped redefine the meaning of supervision and instructional leadership for both scholars and practitioners. The Ninth Edition maintains its comprehensive approach to supervision and instructional leadership and presents new and engaging material throughout. Chapters on knowledge, interpersonal skills, technical skills, technical tasks, and cultural tasks for successful supervision and instructional leadership are included, and the authors emphasize the importance of collegiality, understanding adult learning and development, reflective inquiry, democracy, addressing diversity, the change process, and community building. This is a resource that students purchase, use in class, and reference throughout their careers as educational leaders. MyEdLeadershipLab MyEdLeadershipLab with Video-Enhanced Pearson eText. * Included in this package is access to MyEdLeadershipLab with the new Video-Enhanced eText for SuperVision and Instructional Leadership, exclusively from Pearson. MyEdLeadershipLab delivers customizable content and highly personalized study paths, responsive learning tools, and real-time evaluation and diagnostics to help prepare students for the classroom. MyEdLeadershipLab provides instructors and students access to the video-enhanced Pearson eText, which includes: Full-color online chapters with dynamic videos that show what course concepts look like in real classrooms, model good teaching practice, and expand upon chapter concepts. Over 51 video links, chosen by our authors and other subject-matter experts, are embedded right in context of the content you are reading. Instant online access from your computer or download the Pearson eText App to read on or offline on your iPad and Android tablets.** Other features such as note taking and sharing, highlighting, search and more.
NOTE: Used books, rentals, and purchases made outside of Pearson If purchasing or renting from companies other than Pearson, the access codes for the Enhanced Pearson eText may not be included, may be incorrect, or may be previously redeemed. Check with the seller before completing your purchase. This package includes the Enhanced Pearson eText and the loose-leaf version. This leading text's emphasis on school culture, teachers as adult learners, developmental leadership, democratic education, and collegial supervision has helped redefine the meaning of supervision and instructional leadership for both scholars and practitioners. The Ninth Edition maintains its comprehensive approach to supervision and instructional leadership and presents new and engaging material throughout. Chapters on knowledge, interpersonal skills, technical skills, technical tasks, and cultural tasks for successful supervision and instructional leadership are included, and the authors emphasize the importance of collegiality, understanding adult learning and development, reflective inquiry, democracy, addressing diversity, the change process, and community building. This is a resource that students purchase, use in class, and reference throughout their careers as educational leaders. The Enhanced Pearson eText features embedded video. Improve mastery and retention with the Enhanced Pearson eText* The Enhanced Pearson eText provides a rich, interactive learning environment designed to improve student mastery of content. The Enhanced Pearson eText is: Engaging. The new interactive, multimedia learning features were developed by the authors and other subject-matter experts to deepen and enrich the learning experience. Convenient. Enjoy instant online access from your computer or download the Pearson eText App to read on or offline on your iPad® and Android® tablet.* Affordable. Experience the advantages of the Enhanced Pearson eText along with all the benefits of print for 40% to 50% less than a print bound book. * The Enhanced eText features are only available in the Pearson eText format. They are not available in third-party eTexts or downloads. *The Pearson eText App is available on Google Play and in the App Store. It requires Android OS 3.1-4, a 7” or 10” tablet, or iPad iOS 5.0 or later.
There are over 5,000,000 people working in direct sales in North America. Each night of the week approximately 150,000 home sales demonstrations are given across the United States! Contrary to popular belief, a career in direct sales, whether as a representative for an established company or as the owner of your own business, can be an exciting and lucrative occupation for anyone who possesses the right business skills and sales techniques. By studying and employing the practices outlined in this book, the new recruit to direct sales can bypass the inherent frustrations that come with the undertaking. Lack of experience, low self-esteem, fear of failure, and lack of sales skills are all barriers that can obstruct the road to success in direct consumer marketing. For the more seasoned representative, these secrets to successful selling will become part of your established repertoire, adding to your hard-earned knowledge of the direct sales field with some new and enlightening ideas and practices. Included is a success potential quiz and analysis, followed by chapters on prospecting for clients, sure-fire techniques for booking, suggestions for confirming demonstrations and keeping them booked, coaching your hosts or hostesses for higher profits, the basics of a successful sales presentation, client service, how to increase confidence, the power of goal-setting, and time management. Included within the chapters are sample conversations and examples of how to use the techniques offered to their highest potential by using them along with your company's encouragement to achieve a superior, more rewarding direct sales career.
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