Luiza Antoun de Almeida's Books

Determinants of and Prospects for Market Access in Frontier Economies

By: Victor Hugo C. Alexandrino da Silva,Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Ms. Diva Singh

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Determinants of and Prospects for Market Access in Frontier Economies

By: Victor Hugo C. Alexandrino da Silva,Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Ms. Diva Singh

In recent years, we have observed an increase in low-income countries’ (LICs) access to international capital markets, especially after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates what factors—country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals and/or external variables—have contributed to the surge in external bond issuance by these LICs, which we refer to in our paper as ‘frontier economies’. Using data on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external bond issuance, outstanding PPG bond stock, as well as sovereign spreads, we employ panel data analysis to examine factors related to the increase in issuance by these economies as well as the reduction in their spreads over time. Our empirical study shows that both country-specific fundamentals (such as public debt, current account balance, level of reserves, quality of institutions) and external variables (such as US growth and the VIX index) play a role in explaining the increased amount of issuance and the decline in spreads of frontier economies’ sovereign bonds. The impact of some of these variables on issuance appears to reflect a country’s need to issue bonds for external financing (‘the supply side’ of bond issuance), while others appear to correlate more through their impact on investors’ appetite for a country’s debt (‘the demand side’). In addition, the impact of country-specific variables can also be affected by external factors such as global risk appetite. Our analysis of key factors that have contributed to increased market access for frontier economies over the past decade provides important information to gauge the prospects for their continued market access, and for other LICs to join this group by tapping international markets for the first time.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513573659

ISBN 13

9781513573656

On the Impact of Structural Reforms on Output and Employment

Evidence from a Cross-country Firm-level Analysis

By: Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Vybhavi Balasundharam

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On the Impact of Structural Reforms on Output and Employment

Evidence from a Cross-country Firm-level Analysis

By: Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Vybhavi Balasundharam

This paper analyzes the effects of selected structural reforms on output and employment in the short and medium term. It uses a comprehensive cross-country firm-level dataset covering both advanced and emerging market economies over the period 2003-2014. In line with previous studies, it finds that structural reforms have in general a positive impact on output and employment in the medium term. Furthermore, the paper also assesses whether the impact of structural reforms varies with firm-specific characteristics, such as size, leverage, profitability, and sector. We find evidence that firm characteristics do influence the effectiveness of structural reforms. These findings have relevant policy implications as they help policymakers tailor the design of structural reforms to maximize their payoffs, taking into account their heterogeneous impact on firms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484351770

ISBN 13

9781484351772

Non-Financial Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies, 2010–17

By: Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Mr.Thierry Tressel

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Non-Financial Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies, 2010–17

By: Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Mr.Thierry Tressel

This paper studies the evolution of non-financial corporate debt among publicly listed companies in major advanced economies between 2010 and 2017. Since 2010, firms have started to rely more on corporate bond markets and have used part of their debt to increase their holdings of cash. In our sample of some 5,000 firms, we find substantial differences across countries, industries, firms, and years in leverage and debt maturity, and we also identify time factors that are common drivers of capital structures. Within countries, loosening an index of financial conditions seems to be associated with lengthening debt maturity after controlling for firms’ characteristics. Across firms and countries, leveraging and lengthening debt maturity have been greater where economic growth was stronger. Tighter financial conditions are positively associated with an increase in short-term debt financing. Quantile regressions suggest that there is substantial heterogeneity among firms on how they react to macro-financial conditions: large increases in long-term debt financing and large declines in short-term debt financing tend to be driven more by better macroeconomic performance, while large increases in short-term debt financing are more strongly impacted by tighter financial conditions. Since the paper uses data up to 2017, it does not reflect developments that occurred during the coronavirus pandemic. Nonetheless, sensitivity analysis shows that a significant amount of corporate debt, representing more than 5 percent of GDP, could be at risk in some countries, with an adverse spillover to the financial system if financial conditions tighten or economic growth slows down. This suggests that vulnerabilities should be closely monitored and policy action taken if warranted.

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International Monetary Fund

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1513549200

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9781513549200

A Network Analysis of Sectoral Accounts

Identifying Sectoral Interlinkages in G-4 Economies

By: Luiza Antoun de Almeida

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A Network Analysis of Sectoral Accounts

Identifying Sectoral Interlinkages in G-4 Economies

By: Luiza Antoun de Almeida

The recent financial crisis highlighted that balance sheet exposures can be a major shock transmission channel. Using sectoral accounts data in combination with data from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, International Investment Position, and BIS this paper estimates bilateral exposures between financial and non-financial sectors in three different financial instruments within and across G-4 economies (Euro Area, Japan, U.K. and U.S.). The generated financial networks represent a powerful tool for assessing financial stability, as they allow for the identification of systemically important sectors. The analysis suggests that after the financial crisis bilateral exposures in debt securities have increased, while exposures in loans and equities have declined. Shock simulations reveal that the vulnerability of the financial sector to the government sector has increased considerably since the outbreak of the financial crisis.

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1513523104

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9781513523101

A Capital Market Union for Europe

By: Mr.Ashok Vir Bhatia,Ms.Srobona Mitra,Anke Weber,Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Cristina Cuervo,Mr.Andre O Santos,Tryggvi Gudmundsson

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A Capital Market Union for Europe

By: Mr.Ashok Vir Bhatia,Ms.Srobona Mitra,Anke Weber,Mr.Shekhar Aiyar,Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Cristina Cuervo,Mr.Andre O Santos,Tryggvi Gudmundsson

This note weighs the merits of a capital market union (CMU) for Europe, identifies major obstacles in its path, and recommends a set of carefully targeted policy actions. European capital markets are relatively small, resulting in strong bank-dependence, and are split sharply along national lines. Results include an uneven playing field in terms of corporate funding costs, the rationing out of collateral-constrained firms, and limited shock absorption. The benefits of integration center on expanding financial choice, ultimately to support capital formation and resilience. Capital market development and integration would support a healthy diversity in European finance. Proceeding methodically, the note identifies three key barriers to greater capital market integration in Europe: transparency, regulatory quality, and insolvency practices. Based on these findings, the note urges three policy priorities, focused on the three barriers. There is no roadblock—such steps should prove feasible without a new grand bargain.

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