Lili Mottaghi's Books

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

A New Economy in Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Lili Mottaghi,Andrea Barone

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Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

A New Economy in Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Lili Mottaghi,Andrea Barone

After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, and the growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms is needed should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred million young people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role that public-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helping change the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of the services sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growth through enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region's fast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, could serve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youth over the next decade.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464813671

ISBN 13

9781464813672

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2015

Economic Implications of Lifting Sanctions on Iran

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2015

Economic Implications of Lifting Sanctions on Iran

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

Iran and the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1) reached a deal on July 14, 2015 that limits Iranian nuclear activity in return for lifting all international sanctions that were placed on Iran (Box 1). This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief (QEB) traces the economic effects of this development--removing sanctions on Iran--on the world oil market, on Iran's trading partners, and on the Iranian economy.

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ISBN 10

1464807027

ISBN 13

9781464807022

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016

Syria, Reconstruction for Peace

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016

Syria, Reconstruction for Peace

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

The short term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. A combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and subdued global economic recovery is expected to keep average growth in the MENA region around 3 percent in 2016, for the fourth year in a row. Furthermore, the humanitarian and economic situation in the war torn countries keep deteriorating. In this report we will explore ways in which a strategy of reconstruction of Syria—the most war-ravaged country in the region—could help foster a sustainable peace. This report argues that the impact of the civil war on the Syrian society will be persistent, and the challenges facing the country need to be addressed now. The report calls for the international community to be the guarantor of an inclusive reconstruction strategy that not only makes peace sustainable tomorrow, but makes it happen today: peace and reconstruction are two sides of the same coin.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464809070

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9781464809071

Trading Together

Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-Covid Era

By: Rabah Arezki,Blanca Moreno-Dodson,Rachel Yuting Fan,Romeo Gansey,Ha Nguyen,Minh Cong Nguyen,Lili Mottaghi,Constantin Tsakas,Christina Wood,Nelly El-Mallakh

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Trading Together

Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-Covid Era

By: Rabah Arezki,Blanca Moreno-Dodson,Rachel Yuting Fan,Romeo Gansey,Ha Nguyen,Minh Cong Nguyen,Lili Mottaghi,Constantin Tsakas,Christina Wood,Nelly El-Mallakh

Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA’s economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks—most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.

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120

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World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464816395

ISBN 13

9781464816390

Middle East and North Africa Data Book, September 2014

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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Middle East and North Africa Data Book, September 2014

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

The MENA Little Data Book is a product of the Chief Economist Office for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region of the World Bank. The Little Data Book is based on World Development Indicators (WDI) and other sources as noted in the tables. This Book includes indicators covering macroeconomic, social and external sector for MENA and other comparator regions.

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102

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World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464804249

ISBN 13

9781464804243

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Update, April 2014

Harnessing the Global Recovery - A Tough Road Ahead

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Update, April 2014

Harnessing the Global Recovery - A Tough Road Ahead

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

Compared with the previous three years, 2014 seems hopeful and 2015 could be a turning point for the countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Many countries in MENA will start to benefit from stronger external demand in the high-income economies, as the global economy is set for a rebound in 2014. In the MENA region, higher global demand is expected to boost exports of energy and manufactured products in those countries that have trade linkages with high- income countries. Growth in MENA is expected to reach 3.3 percent in 2014 and further accelerate to 4.6 percent in 2015. Nevertheless, the prospects for growth in MENA could be threatened if long awaited structural problems remain unresolved.

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ISBN 10

1464803951

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9781464803956

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016

The Economic Effects of War and Peace

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016

The Economic Effects of War and Peace

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

This issue of the World Bank MENA Quarterly Economic Brief expects growth in the Middle East and North Africa to fall to 2.6 percent in 2015, from 2.8 percent predicted in October. The short term outlook remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. The poor performance of several MENA economies and their dim prospects for the future are mainly driven by the civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict countries and their neighbors. This report examines the different ways in which civil wars affect the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis. Moreover, we explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. The report concludes that under peace settlement, a permanent transition from non democracy to democracy could improve economic growth significantly in the long run.

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1464808228

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9781464808227

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2014

Predictions, Perceptions and Economic Reality - Challenges of the Seven Middle East and North Africa Countries Described in 14 Charts

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2014

Predictions, Perceptions and Economic Reality - Challenges of the Seven Middle East and North Africa Countries Described in 14 Charts

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

This issue of the Quarterly Economic Brief looks at the actual growth performance of these countries and highlights the limitations of forecasting in the wake of the 2011 uprisings, at the consequences of the growth slowdown, including unemployment, where perceptions may diverge from reality. The story is told in fourteen charts.

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ISBN 10

1464804079

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9781464804076

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2013

Growth Slowdown Extends Into 2013

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2013

Growth Slowdown Extends Into 2013

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

While the focus has been on the recent change in government in Egypt, five countries in the Middle East and North Africa Region, including Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Iran are facing a growth slowdown, rising fiscal deficits and debt, and high unemployment and inflation. Continued political turmoil in Egypt and spillovers from the civil war in Syria to Jordan and Lebanon threaten to make their economic situation worse. While easing political tensions in Tunisia and post-election improvements in Iran’s international relations may help these countries, the overall macroeconomic outlook in all five countries for the rest of 2013 is grim.

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146480396X

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9781464803963

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2015

Towards a New Social Contract

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2015

Towards a New Social Contract

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group’s latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA’s economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA’s economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.

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146480608X

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9781464806087

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2014

Growth Slowdown Heightens the Need for Reforms

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

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Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2014

Growth Slowdown Heightens the Need for Reforms

By: Shantayanan Devarajan,Lili Mottaghi

Ongoing regional tensions, together with a challenging (albeit slightly improving) external environment, have hit the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region hard. Economic growth is slowing, fiscal buffers are depleting, unemployment is rising, and inflation is mounting in seven of the region’s most vulnerable economies-- Egypt, Tunisia, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen and Libya. Short-term policy actions such as increasing public sector wages and subsidies—aimed at reducing social tensions--exacerbate the situation, which is driven by long-standing structural weaknesses, including labor market rigidities, complicated and opaque regulations, infrastructure deficiencies, regressive and inefficient subsidies, and inadequate social safety nets. While these countries face an unstable political and macroeconomic environment, the growth slowdown after the Arab Spring creates a unique opportunity to address these structural problems to both create fiscal space and restructure the economy towards job creation and inclusive growth.

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1464803943

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9781464803949

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Economic Perspectives on Violent Extremism

By: Devarajan, Shantayanan ,Mottaghi, Lili

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Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Economic Perspectives on Violent Extremism

By: Devarajan, Shantayanan ,Mottaghi, Lili

The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region.

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