Leandro Medina's Books

The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America

By: Leandro Medina

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The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America

By: Leandro Medina

The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455202266

ISBN 13

9781455202263

Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

By: Leandro Medina

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Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh

By: Leandro Medina

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513564048

ISBN 13

9781513564043

The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Size and Determinants

By: Leandro Medina,Mr.Andrew W Jonelis,Mehmet Cangul

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The Informal Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Size and Determinants

By: Leandro Medina,Mr.Andrew W Jonelis,Mehmet Cangul

The multiple indicator-multiple cause (MIMIC) method is a well-established tool for measuring informal economic activity. However, it has been criticized because GDP is used both as a cause and indicator variable. To address this issue, this paper applies for the first time the light intensity approach (instead of GDP). It also uses the Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) method to estimate the size of the informal economy for Sub-Saharan African countries over 24 years. Results suggest that informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa remains among the largest in the world, although this share has been very gradually declining. It also finds significant heterogeneity, with informality ranging from a low of 20 to 25 percent in Mauritius, South Africa and Namibia to a high of 50 to 65 percent in Benin, Tanzania and Nigeria.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484305949

ISBN 13

9781484305942

Explaining the Shadow Economy in Europe: Size, Causes and Policy Options

By: Mr.Ben Kelmanson,Koralai Kirabaeva,Leandro Medina,MissBorislava Mircheva,Jason Weiss

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Explaining the Shadow Economy in Europe: Size, Causes and Policy Options

By: Mr.Ben Kelmanson,Koralai Kirabaeva,Leandro Medina,MissBorislava Mircheva,Jason Weiss

This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern Europe. In the emerging European economies, the key determinants of shadow economy size are regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and human capital. The paper argues that a comprehensive package of reforms, focused on country-specific drivers, is needed to successfully combat the shadow economy. The menu of policies most relevant for Europe’s emerging economies include: reducing regulatory and administrative burdens, promoting transparency and improving government effectiveness, as well as improving tax compliance, automating procedures, and promoting electronic payments.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513520695

ISBN 13

9781513520698

Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia

By: Mr.Yasser Abdih,Leandro Medina

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Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia

By: Mr.Yasser Abdih,Leandro Medina

This study estimates the size of the informal economy, and the relative contribution of each underlying factor, for the Caucasus and Central Asia countries in 2008. Using a Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause model, we find that a burdensome tax system, rigid labor market, low institutional quality, and excessive regulation in financial and products markets are determinant factors in explaining the size of the informal economy, which ranges from 26 percent of GDP in Kyrgyz Republic to around 35 percent of GDP in Armenia. Furthermore, the results show that higher levels of informality increase the levels of self employment and the percentage of currency held outside the banking system.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484334485

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9781484334485

Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries

By: Carlos Caceres,Leandro Medina

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Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries

By: Carlos Caceres,Leandro Medina

The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475545002

ISBN 13

9781475545005

Spring Forward or Fall Back? The Post-Crisis Recovery of Firms

By: Leandro Medina

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Spring Forward or Fall Back? The Post-Crisis Recovery of Firms

By: Leandro Medina

This paper studies corporate performance in the aftermath of the global crisis by examining 6,581 manufacturing firms in 48 developed and developing countries in 2010, identifying factors of resilience as well as vulnerability. Based on a cross-sectional analysis, the results show that pre-crisis leverage and short-term debt have had negative effects on the speed of the recovery, while asset tangibility has had positive effects. The negative effect of leverage is non-linear, being particularly strong in firms with high pre-crisis leverage. Furthermore, the effects are different for advanced and emerging market economies. The paper also shows that the macroeconomic framework critically matters for firm growth. In particular, in countries that have allowed the exchange rate to depreciate, firms have had a faster recovery in sectors highly dependent on trade.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475515405

ISBN 13

9781475515404

Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Carolina Correa-Caro,Leandro Medina,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Bennett W Sutton

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Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Carolina Correa-Caro,Leandro Medina,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Mr.Bennett W Sutton

Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter’s Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structural deficit) interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity affected corporate profitability during the recovery period of the global financial crisis (GFC). Using cross-sectional analyses, our findings indicate that corporate profitability improved significantly after the GFC fiscal stimulus, especially in manufacturing, utilities and retail sectors. Firm size and leverage are also found to be significant in explaining changes in corporate profitability.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484386973

ISBN 13

9781484386972

Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?

By: Leandro Medina,Mr.Friedrich Schneider

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Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?

By: Leandro Medina,Mr.Friedrich Schneider

We undertake an extended discussion of the latest developments about the existing and new estimation methods of the shadow economy. New results on the shadow economy for 158 countries all over the world are presented over 1991 to 2015. Strengths and weaknesses of these methods are assessed and a critical comparison and evaluation of the methods is carried out. The average size of the shadow economy of the 158 countries over 1991 to 2015 is 31.9 percent. The largest ones are Zimbabwe with 60.6 percent, and Bolivia with 62.3 percent of GDP. The lowest ones are Austria with 8.9 percent, and Switzerland with 7.2 percent. The new methods, especially the new macro method, Currency Demand Approach (CDA) and Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) in a structured hybrid-model based estimation procedure, are promising approaches from an econometric standpoint, alongside some new micro estimates. These estimations come quite close to others used by statistical offices or based on surveys.

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114

Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484339177

ISBN 13

9781484339176

Centers and Peripheries in Knowledge Production

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

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Centers and Peripheries in Knowledge Production

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

This book examines the circulation of knowledge within globalization, focusing on the differences between centers and peripheries of knowledge production in the social sciences. It explores not only how knowledge is appropriated in peripheral fields but also how foreign ideas shape those fields and the trajectories of scholars, and uses actor-network theory to explain circulation of knowledge as an extension of socio-technical networks that transcend borders.

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263

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1135021791

ISBN 13

9781135021795

The Circulation of European Knowledge: Niklas Luhmann in the Hispanic Americas

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

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The Circulation of European Knowledge: Niklas Luhmann in the Hispanic Americas

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

This book studies the circulation of social knowledge by focusing on the reception of Niklas Luhmann's systems theory in Hispanic America. It shows that theories need active involvement from scholars in the receiving field in order to travel.

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203

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Springer

Published Date

ISBN 10

1137430036

ISBN 13

9781137430038

Jimmy Page in Brazil

By: Leandro Souto Maior

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Jimmy Page in Brazil

By: Leandro Souto Maior

immy Page is still recognized as one of the most influential guitarists of all time and one of the most important rock composers worldwide. And Page's relationship with Brazil is old: in addition to having starred in many meetings with national music stars, the Led Zeppelin guitarist spent seasons in Bahia and inaugurated Casa Jimmy to house homeless youth in the capital of Rio de Janeiro – which earns him the title of Honorary Citizen of Rio de Janeiro. This intense story is the theme of Jimmy Page in Brazil, a bilingual book (Portuguese / English) by journalist and musician Leandro Souto Maior. The book has a preface by Ed Motta, one of the greatest collectors and connoisseurs of Led Zeppelin's work in Brazil, and postscript by young guitarist Sebastião Reis, the son of musician Nando Reis, what confirms that the band has crossed generations. The layout and cover bear the signature of Tomás Paoni, the artistic director of the project. The cover photo is by Marcos Hermes, a great photographer in the Brazilian music market. The edition is signed by Chris Fuscaldo, director of Garota FM Books.

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313

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Garota FM Books

Published Date

ISBN 10

6599153933

ISBN 13

9786599153938

The Catherwood Project

Incidents of Visual Reconstructions and Other Matters

By: Leandro Katz,Jesse Lerner

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The Catherwood Project

Incidents of Visual Reconstructions and Other Matters

By: Leandro Katz,Jesse Lerner

The work of Argentine photographer Leandro Katz is presented here in dialogue with the nineteenth-century artist Frederick Catherwood, whose images of Maya ruins have fascinated viewers for more than a century. Catherwood’s daguerreotypes and sketches, originally published to illustrate the travel narratives of John Lloyd Stephens, are among the most accurate depictions of important Maya sites before the advent of modern archaeology. Katz’s photos of the same sites, most of which are previously unpublished, are presented alongside Jesse Lerner’s essay, which explores their connections to the history of archaeology, their resonance in contemporary art, and the evolution of an artist who seamlessly integrates form and content.

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144

Publisher

University of New Mexico Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0826358500

ISBN 13

9780826358509

How Have IMF Priorities Evolved? A Text Mining Approach

By: Gareth Anderson,Paolo Galang,Mr. Andrea Gamba,Leandro Medina,Tianxiao Zheng

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How Have IMF Priorities Evolved? A Text Mining Approach

By: Gareth Anderson,Paolo Galang,Mr. Andrea Gamba,Leandro Medina,Tianxiao Zheng

This paper assess how priorities of the IMF’s membership have evolved over the past two decades, by using text mining techniques on a unique dataset combining IMFC communiqués and constituency statements. Our results reveal significant variation in priorities across time and constituencies. Statements can be characterized by the weight which they place on three key priorities: (i) growth; (ii) debt and development; and (iii) crisis management and quota reform. Sentiment analysis techniques also show that addressing climate change is a topic which is viewed positively by an increasing number of constituencies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513573454

ISBN 13

9781513573458

Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance

Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with Them?

By: Ms.Ana Corbacho,Leandro Medina,Carlos Caceres

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Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance

Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with Them?

By: Ms.Ana Corbacho,Leandro Medina,Carlos Caceres

In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effectiveness of these laws remain tentative. In this paper, we test empirically whether fiscal performance, measured as the level of primary fiscal balances and their volatility, indeed improved after the implementation of Fiscal Responsibility Laws in a sample of Latin American and advanced economies. We show that traditional econometric approaches, which rely on the use of dummies in time series or panel regressions, yield biased estimates. In contrast, our empirical strategy recognizes that, a priori, the timing of the effect of these laws on fiscal performance is unknown, while controlling for the impact of the business and commodity cycles on fiscal outcomes. Overall, we find limited empirical evidence in support of the view that Fiscal Responsibility Laws have had a distinguishable effect on fiscal performance. However, Fiscal Responsibility Laws could still have other positive effects on the conduct of fiscal policy not analyzed here, for instance, through enhanced transparency and guidance in the budget process and lower risk premia.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455209481

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9781455209484

The Circulation of European Knowledge: Niklas Luhmann in the Hispanic Americas

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

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The Circulation of European Knowledge: Niklas Luhmann in the Hispanic Americas

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

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203

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Springer

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1137430036

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9781137430038

Centers and Peripheries in Knowledge Production

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

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Centers and Peripheries in Knowledge Production

By: Leandro Rodriguez Medina

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263

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Routledge

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1135021791

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9781135021795

How Have IMF Priorities Evolved? A Text Mining Approach

By: Gareth Anderson,Paolo Galang,Mr. Andrea Gamba,Leandro Medina,Tianxiao Zheng

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How Have IMF Priorities Evolved? A Text Mining Approach

By: Gareth Anderson,Paolo Galang,Mr. Andrea Gamba,Leandro Medina,Tianxiao Zheng

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International Monetary Fund

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1513573454

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9781513573458

The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America

By: Leandro Medina

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The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America

By: Leandro Medina

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International Monetary Fund

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1455202266

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9781455202263

Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges

By: Tryggvi Gudmundsson,Mr. Vladimir Klyuev,Leandro Medina,Mr. Boaz Nandwa,Dmitry Plotnikov,Francisco Schiffrer,Di Yang

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Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges

By: Tryggvi Gudmundsson,Mr. Vladimir Klyuev,Leandro Medina,Mr. Boaz Nandwa,Dmitry Plotnikov,Francisco Schiffrer,Di Yang

This article documents recent developments in emerging markets in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, assesses their prospects and challenges, and discusses appropriate policy settings for the medium term. It argues that EM policymakers’ ability to grapple with an incomplete and uneven recovery will be constrained by high public debt and uncertain inflation prospects as well as external risks surrounding capital flows and exchange rate developments. The paper also discusses potential impact of a tightening in global financial conditions and appreciation of the US dollar that could be triggered by a general increase in risk aversion or a reassessment of the likely path of US monetary policy.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400203954

Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia

By: Mr.Yasser Abdih,Leandro Medina

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Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus and Central Asia

By: Mr.Yasser Abdih,Leandro Medina

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484334485

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9781484334485

Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies

By: Leandro Medina,Jordi Prat,Mr.Alun H. Thomas

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Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies

By: Leandro Medina,Jordi Prat,Mr.Alun H. Thomas

This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451962991

ISBN 13

9781451962994

The Chilean Output Gap

By: Leandro Medina,Mr.Nicolas E. Magud

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The Chilean Output Gap

By: Leandro Medina,Mr.Nicolas E. Magud

This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent in the natural resource sector. The contributions to aggregate potential output growth of the natural resource sector and the non-natural resource sector are estimated, finding that the contribution to growth of the natural resource sector is non-linear-increasing during the 1990s, declining during the 2000s, and turning negative in the mid-2000s-despite the monotonic decrease in the share of natural resource output in aggregate output.

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