Lahcen Bounader's Books

Firm-Level Data and Monetary Policy: The Case of a Middle Income Country

By: Lahcen Bounader,Mohamed Doukali

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Firm-Level Data and Monetary Policy: The Case of a Middle Income Country

By: Lahcen Bounader,Mohamed Doukali

We test the existence of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy in a middle-income country. Firm-level data scarcity and quality, in such a context, make the identification of this channel a steep challenge. To circumvent this challenge, we use panel instrumental variables estimation with measurement error to analyze the financial statements of 58 500 Moroccan firms over the period 2010-2016. Our analysis confirms the existence of this channel. It shows that monetary policy has a significant impact on small and medium enterprises’ access to banks’ financing, and that firm-specific variables are key determinants of firms’ financing decisions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513519786

ISBN 13

9781513519784

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

By: Jonathan Benchimol,Lahcen Bounader

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Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

By: Jonathan Benchimol,Lahcen Bounader

The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498324584

ISBN 13

9781498324588

Is There a One-Size-Fits-All Approach to Inclusive Growth? A Case Study Analysis

By: Sriram Balasubramanian,Lahcen Bounader,Mrs. Jana Bricco,Dmitry Vasilyev

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Is There a One-Size-Fits-All Approach to Inclusive Growth? A Case Study Analysis

By: Sriram Balasubramanian,Lahcen Bounader,Mrs. Jana Bricco,Dmitry Vasilyev

Is there a one-size-fits-all approach to inclusive growth? We look at four key case studies across advanced and emerging markets—the Nordics, India, Brazil, and Egypt—to try to answer this question. We highlight qualitatively in these countries the key components of inclusive growth models, outcomes from these models, and the road ahead in the respective countries. Some of the analysis focuses on co-operative labor markets in the Nordics, direct benefit transfers in India, the role of social assistance and commodity boom in Brazil, and the inequality puzzle in Egypt. The paper finds that there is a lack of homogeneity among the approaches by these countries and identifies the need for customized solutions to inclusive growth. A one-size-fits-all approach doesn’t seem to work. The more customized the inclusive growth model, the better the overall outcome.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513582364

ISBN 13

9781513582368

For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation

By: Mr. Andrew Berg,Lahcen Bounader,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Hiroaki Miyamoto,Mr. Kenji Moriyama,Ryota Nakatani,Luis-Felipe Zanna

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For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation

By: Mr. Andrew Berg,Lahcen Bounader,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Hiroaki Miyamoto,Mr. Kenji Moriyama,Ryota Nakatani,Luis-Felipe Zanna

Many studies predict massive job losses and real wage decline as a result of the ongoing widespread automation of production, a trend that may be further aggravated by the COVID-19 crisis. Yet automation is also expected to raise productivity and output. How can we share the gains from automation more widely, for the benefit of all? And what are the attendant equity-efficiency trade-offs? We analyze this issue by considering the effects of fiscal policies that seek to redistribute the gains from automation and address income inequality. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition, including a novel specification linking corporate power to automation. While fiscal policy cannot eliminate the classic equity-efficiency trade-offs, it can help improve them, reducing inequality at small or no loss of output. This is particularly so when policy takes advantage of novel, less distortive transmission channels of fiscal policy created by the empirically observed link between corporate market power and automation.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513592963

ISBN 13

9781513592961

Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications

By: Florian Schuster,Ms. Marwa Alnasaa,Lahcen Bounader,Il Jung,Jeta Menkulasi,Joana da Mota

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Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications

By: Florian Schuster,Ms. Marwa Alnasaa,Lahcen Bounader,Il Jung,Jeta Menkulasi,Joana da Mota

Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.

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