Ksenia Koloskova's Books

Fiscal Spillovers

The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission

By: Patrick Blagrave,Giang Ho,Ksenia Koloskova,Mr.Esteban Vesperoni

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Fiscal Spillovers

The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission

By: Patrick Blagrave,Giang Ho,Ksenia Koloskova,Mr.Esteban Vesperoni

Are fiscal spillovers today as large as they were during the global financial crisis? How do they depend on economic and policy conditions? This note informs the debate on the cross-border impact of fiscal policy on economic activity, shedding light on the magnitude and the factors affecting transmission, such as the fiscal instruments used, cyclical positions, monetary policy conditions, and exchange rate regimes. The note assesses spillovers from five major advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) on 55 advanced and emerging market economies that represent 85 percent of global output, looking at government-spending and tax revenue shocks during expansion and consolidation episodes. It finds that fiscal spillovers are economically significant in the presence of slack and/or accommodative monetary policy—and considerably smaller otherwise, which suggests that spillovers are large when domestic multipliers are also large. It also finds that spillovers from government-spending shocks are larger and more persistent than those from tax shocks and that transmission may be stronger among countries with fixed exchange rates. The evidence suggests that although spillovers from fiscal policies in the current environment may not be as large as they were during the crisis, they may still be important under certain economic circumstances.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484320301

ISBN 13

9781484320303

Impact of Migration on Income Levels in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Florence Jaumotte,Ksenia Koloskova,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena

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Impact of Migration on Income Levels in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Florence Jaumotte,Ksenia Koloskova,Ms.Sweta Chaman Saxena

The recent refugee surge has brought attention to the macro-critical policy issue of migration, including speculations that migration can be an unfavorable phenomenon for the receiving economies. A careful examination of the impact of migration on host economies is thus critical. Focusing on the economic impact, most of the academic discussion has centered on the effect of migration on labor markets and public finances. Much less is known about the long-term impact of immigration on the GDP per capita (or the standard of living) of host economies. This note makes three contributions to estimating this impact: it uses a restricted sample of advanced economies rather than a mixed sample of higher- and lower-income host countries, it examines whether the GDP per capita impact varies for different skill levels of migrants, and it goes beyond the aggregate impact of migration on GDP per capita to examine how broadly gains in this regard are shared across the population. In particular, it examines whether migration impacts the income levels of those both at the top and at the bottom of the earnings distribution, or whether gains are instead concentrated in a small group of high earners. It finds that immigration significantly increases GDP per capita in advanced economies, that both high- and lower-skilled migrants can raise labor productivity, and that an increase in the migrant share benefits the average income per capita of both the bottom 90 percent and the top 10 percent of earners, suggesting the gains from immigration are broadly shared.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

147554670X

ISBN 13

9781475546705

Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Ksenia Koloskova

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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

By: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba,Mr.Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Ksenia Koloskova

The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we find that cumulative fiscal multipliers related to output, employment and unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal consolidation plans to reduce public debt burdens should proceed gradually if economic activity remains below trend for a prolonged period.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475559194

ISBN 13

9781475559194

Gone with the Headwinds

Global Productivity

By: Gustavo Adler,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Ksenia Koloskova,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

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Gone with the Headwinds

Global Productivity

By: Gustavo Adler,Mr.Romain A Duval,Davide Furceri,Sinem Kiliç Çelik,Ksenia Koloskova,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

to come

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475589824

ISBN 13

9781475589825

Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions

By: Patrick Blagrave,Giang Ho,Ksenia Koloskova,Mr.Esteban Vesperoni

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Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions

By: Patrick Blagrave,Giang Ho,Ksenia Koloskova,Mr.Esteban Vesperoni

Fiscal stimulus was widely advocated during the global crisis, a period characterized by monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) in many countries, in part because of expected positive spillovers. Standard New Keynesian models predict the cross-border transmission of fiscal shocks is stronger when monetary policy is constrained in recipients. However, the empirical evidence is scarce. This paper bridges this gap by looking at the impact of fiscal shocks in systemic (source) economies on output and demand components in a large group of (recipient) countries, under different monetary policy conditions. Empirical results are compared to simulations with a state-of-the-art estimated open-economy New Keynesian model. Our results corroborate model predictions, finding larger spillovers when recipients are at the ELB, driven by stronger responses of investment and consumption relative to normal times

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