The book concludes with my life achievements, then discusses my expanded work experience, my published articles, my published books and citations of my articles.
Direct real estate market analysis is a rigorous investigative approach for academic research, and for direct real estate investment research in practice. ‘An Asian International Real Estate Review’ considers the subject in the context of economic theory pertaining to market disequilibria, utilizing data from major cities in Asia as case studies. Such an approach makes it possible to determine what really defines an Asian direct real estate sector. What is being measured? How does it behave (in terms of price and non-price factors)? How is it structured? How effectively does it achieve sustainable total returns? And how does it manage direct real estate market uncertainty? Direct real estate market uncertainty originates from both the demand-side and the supply-side of the market. The market responds to structural macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that in turn are affected by related public policies. Such factors and policies interact to affect Asian direct real estate in unique ways since the Asian currency crisis of 1997. ‘An Asian International Real Estate Review’ shows that while the details of direct real estate market analysis are different for the various Asian cities (and their direct real estate sectors) owing to their different stages of maturity, underlying principles nevertheless apply. ‘An Asian International Real Estate Review’ also looks at managing direct real estate market uncertainty at the portfolio level via the analytical techniques of direct real estate asset allocation, direct real estate value-at-risk (VaR), real option analysis and pricing.
Chapter 1 explores the extent to which the fundamental structure and behaviour of the large-scale high-tech strategic industrial real estate development projects, can be shaped in terms of institutional and macroeconomic conditions. Capital budgeting techniques and copula risk functions, affirm the relative influence of uncertain macroeconomic and financial variables, on the profitability of Singapore’s Biopolis at the One North development. Chapter 2 looks at the dynamics of the large-scale high-tech strategic industrial real estate market. The Chapter aims to understand the fundamental structure and behaviour of the industrial real estate in Singapore, and to broadly indicate the relative impacts of macroeconomic conditions on such industrial real estate market dynamics. In Chapter 3 and for the case of Singapore, the Chapter adopts the unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, to understand how the space and asset markets in industrial real estate, are shaped via endogenous and exogenous factors. Chapter 4 construes the knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) strategy, to be a significant form of urban renewal of post-industrial cluster-based industrial cities. Urban planners are compelled to explore mixed-use zoning, the knowledge-based urban development-land use design model (KBUD-LUDM), its knowledge interaction design criteria (KIDC) and the land-use cost criteria (LUCC). Chapter 5 concludes this book.
Chapter 1 takes a close look at two types of heterogeneous investors (momentum and disposition) to form a unique difference model, to interpret housing price dynamics. Three parameters are crucial, namely, auto-correlation, the rate of mean reversion and the contemporaneous adjustment towards long-term equilibrium price. The key implication is that the 2006 boom of the Singapore private housing market does not offer as large a magnitude as that from the price gain in the 1990’s boom-and-recovery over the long-term. Singapore’s private housing market is low risk, offering stable returns owing to virtually no divergence even in the speculative 1990s. The best way to invest is to consider the momentum strategy and avoid the herd behaviour for profit sustainability. For policy makers, the Singapore private housing market is over-damped in the long run. Chapter 2 adopts game theory to look at the private residential development oligopolistic market; the determination of residential development sale prices in an uncertain market and under incomplete information of competing developers; the dynamic interaction among developers; the time lags of the development project completion from project start; and the launching of the residential development for sale before completion and the residential development’s own capacity constraints. Developers tend to cooperate for long-term benefit, leading to a sales slowdown. Relatively high profits, earnable in the first few periods, provide an allowance to price undercut others, to sell much faster. First-mover advantage in a new market is evident. As uncertainty rises, prices decrease while price variability increases. Chapter 3 looks at the institutional nature of legal origin and the total returns (TRs), derived from investing in a country’s direct real estate, and via the adoption of a multi-factor arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model. The 1st and 4th order autoregressive model is adopted to de-smooth the TRs. De-smoothed data is used in conjunction with 2 macroeconomic variables (real GDP growth rate and interest rate) and 1 real estate risk factor (vacancy rate) to form the multi-factor structural model. A pooled panel analysis is conducted with the law-system dummies, denoting British legal origin and French legal origin, and the factor loadings (i.e. the sensitivity of the risk factor to the TRs). Macroeconomic and real estate risk factors in equilibrium affect the TRs. Vacancy rate commands high and significant risk premium owing to its direct impact on the TRs, relative to GDP growth rate and interest rate. Chapter 4 is concerned with the real estate mezzanine investment (REMI), a new financial instrument for Asia’s real estate market, and examines the REMI structure, the measurement and characteristics of its risks and returns via a forward-looking binomial asset tree (BAT) model. Risk neutral pricing probability is adopted. REMI bears more risk than typical commercial bank loans, resulting in higher interest rates than pure equity. Different risk issues focus on two major sources - the financial loan to value (LTV) ratio risk and the real estate and capital markets risk. Chapter 4 fulfils the need to close the gap concerning the REMI structure and performance in the steady state, utilizing reliable, authoritative information and data sources. Lastly, Chapter 5 offers this book’s conclusion.
Chapter 1 takes a close look at a unique and state-of-the-art dynamic, structural public housing macroeconomic model (DSPHM), based on an open economy for several key macroeconomic variables, actual and expected, as well as the demand for new HDB flats sold. This Chapter readily adopts the DSPHM for simulating two scenarios, namely a “no change” first scenario and a public housing “deregulation” second scenario. Chapter 2 explores the relationship between several economic factors and the demand for public housing in Singapore and Hong Kong, deploying the innovative and versatile system dynamics model, to shed better understanding on the policy implications of assisted ownership housing. The Chapter assesses the demand for new flats of the Singapore and Hong Kong economies, under certain macroeconomic policy changes, suitable for their unique situations. Chapter 3 is concerned with the underlying structural relationships that affect Singapore’s public housing policy to potentially privatize the HDB concessionary-rate mortgages for HDB homebuyers. Such a potential privatization infuses and sustains price competitiveness among the domestic private banks in Singapore, and lead to improved efficiency among them as well as the Singapore economy at large. Chapter 4 is concerned with the binomial option-pricing model, proposed by Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979), which is appropriate to represent the movement of the underlying HDB resale flat prices, subject to private market forces in HDB’s large scale public housing secondary resale market. The HDB Main Upgrading Program (MUP) is a heavily subsidized and highly targeted public housing policy. Since its inception in 1992, the HDB has budgeted some S$3 billion to finance the MUP policy. Chapter 5 recognizes housing affordability to be always an issue of concern to many Singaporean homebuyers because shelter forms one of the basic life necessities. The corresponding private residential market in Singapore offers quality and premium private residential accommodation for homebuyers, who prefer the private residential market. The appropriate affordability model is a multi-factor housing affordability index (HAI) model, which considers the ability to provide down payment and to service the mortgage taken up. Lastly, Chapter 6 offers the book’s conclusion.
This book is dedicated to real estate scholastic work, in advancing the greater understanding of real estate investment analysis. This is because there has been limited research in bringing out clearly the uncertainty or risk, which is quantifiable uncertainty in real estate market analysis. Even real estate market research, which is carried out as an industry practice among private real estate researches, is no exception. Another reason is that it has been widely accepted that while the financial revolution has substantially changed many sectors of the financial industry, it has made little impact on real estate development and investment practice as Ill as scholastic work. Furthermore, while it is readily acknowledged that despite its huge share in the world Ialth, real estate investment discipline and research is on the whole still a poorly researched subject area. As a result, the industry tends to be dominated by traditional real estate analysts with little understanding of real estate market uncertainty and capital markets. These commentators are widely regarded to spend too much time worrying about local space supply and demand conditions, while totally losing sight of the everchanging real estate market and capital market conditions. The theme of this book is real estate investment analysis of direct and indirect real, which in turn can be appropriately managed under economic theory and the theoretical conceptions of real estate finance, provided the uncertainty is quantifiable. The book deploys case studies involving Singapore and Asia. This Black over White background viii framework enables real estate market analysis to attempt what defines the Asian direct and indirect real estate sectors; what is being measured; how it behaves (in terms of price and non-price factors); how it is structured and how it effectively achieves the objectives of sustainable total returns and manageable real estate market uncertainty. Managing real estate market uncertainty optimally is achieved at the portfolio level through real estate asset allocation. This is important because the real estate portfolio is able to virtually eliminate the unique (i.e. specific) uncertainties among the various Asian real estate sectors; thus retaining within the portfolio only the systemic (i.e. market-wide) uncertainty. Apart from real estate asset allocation, the alternative and modern approach to risk management at the portfolio level, is the value-at-risk (VaR) approach. Another modern and important alternative to coping with uncertainty is real option analysis and pricing that help to better define real estate market uncertainty in extent and time. Real option analysis and pricing also represent uncertainty via a decision tree and the risk-neutral probability conception, in order to comprehend how uncertainty impacts on the value of real estate investment decisions. The pricing of uncertainty is based on the risk-free hedge security conception. These are best examined at the micro level of the investment in a real estate development opportunity on vacant land. Nevertheless, the real estate sectors in Singapore and Asia offer promising prospects since the Asian currency crisis of 1997. It is now timely to take stock and make an assessment of how the sectors would pan out for the future, Ill into at least rest the next century. I are very pleased to present our thinking and research in international real estate with particular emphasis on Asia. The region’s vast potential for real estate is itself a large incentive for international real estate research and education that has inspired me to document the significant work I have done over the years. Black over White background ix I wish all readers a pleasurable reading of this book, and I thank you sincerely for your support without which the publication of this book would be made all the more difficult. Dr HO, Kim Hin / David Honorary Professor (University of Hertfordshire, UK) (International Real Estate & Public Policy) March 2021.
How To Have The Millionaire Mindset In Real Estate And Be The Millionaire Chapter 1 takes a close look at the intuitive build-up approach in the formation of the direct real estate (DRE) investment hurdle rates for new DRE investing. Chapter 2 first examines the existence of appraisal smoothing for international DRE, via adopting the first and fourth order autoregressive model, to de-smooth the DRE total returns (TRs). Secondly, the 3-factor AHP (analytic hierarchy process) SAA (strategic asset allocation) model is studied by city and country. Chapter 3 is concerned with the need to know the DRE sector, in which the DRE asset(s) are located and of interest to local and international investors Chapter 3 focuses on superior, comprehensive DRE market (sector) structural behaviour market (sector) analysis, Chapter 4 looks in-depth at the risk adjusted return on capital (RAROC) on an ex-ante basis. RAROC is found, by dividing the expected TR in US$ terms by the RAROC capital, for individual pan Asia office sectors “i”. Chapter 5 acknowledges the in-depth contribution via value investing principles and the approaches, to evaluate the SG real estate investment trust (SREIT) common stocks. The “margin of safety” is also examined and pivotal on analytical reasoning and empirical data. Chapter 6 looks at the zone of expectation, which may well be generated from relatively wide H (high) and L (low) bands. Such wide bands accord with the SG private residential sector conditions. Chapter 7 offers this book’s conclusion
The Economics of The Modernisation of Direct Real Estate and The National Estate - A Singapore Perspective Chapter 1 takes a close look the vector auto regression (VAR) model, offering a dynamic system of solely direct real estate variables, for international direct real estate investors and policy makers, to enable their decision-making. Chapter 2 examines the association of residential price and aggregate consumption. A cross-spectra analysis is helps to so validate, because of its model-free characteristics Chapter 3 is concerned with the underlying housing market dynamics and housing price time-series variation, via the Singapore (SG) generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM). Chapter 4 is concerned with the in-depth market analysis and empirical analysis of the structural behavior of the important SG private housing sector. Chapter 5 acknowledges that an in-depth sector analysis and an empirical analysis are imperative to better understand the structural behavior of the SG office sector. Chapter 6 is concerned with the Main Upgrading Programme (MUP), a highly targeted subsidized Housing Development Board (HDB) policy, since the 1990s. Chapter 7 recognizes the ‘National Estate’, denoting SG’s built environment, due to physical planning, integrated urban design, and the direct influence of the SG government in providing physical infrastructure via government ministries, statutory boards and public authorities. Chapter 8 offers the book’s conclusion.
This book is a novel treatment of modern project management from artificial intelligence (AI), entailing data analytics, neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms; and data visualisation deploying agent based modelling for the knowledge based urban development (KBUD). The book can be adopted by design engineers, urban planners, project managers, quantity and real estate surveyors, public and private real estate developers, architects and scholars. Chapter 1 discusses that the traditional statistical method, which needs a priori parametric knowledge of linear or non-linear functions between the input and output variables. Nneural networks do not need such information to predict future possible outcomes. Chapter 2 reiterates that new private office and residential supply like in Hong Kong depend on current market prices, relative to the replacement or building costs. The market should equate prices with replacement costs that include the cost of land. Prices and costs may diverge because of lags and delays in the building process. Chapter 3 discusses the specific tasks to be planned to develop life cycle models and metrics to analyse technology and innovation. Such models can look into life cycle cost analysis (LCA). Chapter 4 draws attention to the trend that in a highly volatile world, the best point estimate of classical DCF model is not a reliable indication of investment worth. The fuzzy discounted cash flow (DCF) model offers a natural and intuitive way, based on a set of fuzzy inputs. The fuzzy net present value (NPV) for an office-cum-retail development is so estimated to provide the approximated evaluation of investment worth. Chapter 5 discusses the fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA) model, incorporating intuitive decision making into the direct real estate project (asset) allocation process, from the expert investor prospective. The FTAA model improves the efficiency of asset allocation, adopting fuzzy set theory and fuzzy optimization theory. Chapter 6 reiterates that today’s city planners see the KBUD strategy as a new form of urban renewal for industrial cities. Planners believe KBUDs bring economic, technological progress and sustainable socio-spatial order to the contemporary city. Chapter 6 addresses the need for an urban design criterion that aids in efficient land use planning for KBUDs.
Chapter 1 examines the significance of ‘green’ buildings on the operational and financial performance of REITs. The Chapter covers different direct real estate sectors, namely office, retail and residential, for the REITS concerned to evaluate the consistency of the results. Chapter 2 looks at the risk neutral and non-risk neutral pricing of real estate investment trusts in Singapore (S-REITs), via comparing the average of the individual ratios (of deviation between expected and observed closing price/observed closing price), with the ratio (of standard deviation/mean) for closing prices, via the binomial options pricing tree model. Chapter3 highlights that while the Markowitz portfolio theory (MPT) is popular in modern finance to model portfolios with maximum total returns (TRs) for a given systematic risk, the more flexible multivariate copula model is introduced that enables investors and portfolio managers to obtain the optimal portfolio. Chapter 4 looks at a value investing framework, in which a REIT and real estate comany investment operation is deemed to be one, where a “thorough analysis”, should promise the safety of a principal and an adequate total return. Chapter 5 examines the market reactions of Malaysia’s listed property trusts and property common stocks to corporate restructuring activities – direct real estate asset acquisitions and new listings. Chapter 6 reports the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) consultations with the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF), to introduce the Income Tax Act (ITA) amendments, and a new temporary relief measure for real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Singapore. The Chapter also looks at the proposal by the Asian Public Real Estate Association (APREA) to the MAS, to create a private REIT structure Chapter 7 looks at the key issues and notes on the valuation of the public real estate investment trusts (REITs) and the real estate companies, adopting several valuation metrics to value REITs on a stand-alone and a relative basis. Chapter 8 looks at the unique Asian REIT institutional environment, pertaining to the S-REIT, while cross referencing it to that of the CapitaMall Trust (S-CMT) and the Hong Kong HK- Link REIT. Chapter 9 summarises the book’s findings and highlights the contributions and recommendations made.
Chapter 1 compares the direct real estate (DRE) duration Beta estimates with the time-varying Beta regression estimates, for each of the three prime DRE sectors. Except for the prime office sector, both the duration Beta and the time-varying Beta profiles follow the same general trend. The luxury residential sector and the prime office sector are inclined to move in opposite direction. However, the prime office sector shows greater volatility in the duration Beta compared with the time-varying Beta. Chapter 2 demonstrates overall that in the presence of a set of limited available information comprising a direct real estate (DRE) asset’s passing (annual) rent, the current rental value, the expected yields and the yield-growth movements from a DRE sector analysis, conducted by a DRE consultancy or service provider, the risk-free rate and the lease maturity period; it is readily feasible to model and rigorously estimate several key risk measures and the expected total returns (TRs). Such a model and its estimations can be achieved through an ex-ante integrated DRE risk-measure model, which innovatively combines the bond duration-convexity risk conception, the Beta distribution function, and the DRE equivalent (rental) yield valuation conception. Finally, Chapter 3 looks at the structural and behavioural experience of the prepayment risk for the underlying mortgages of China’s rapidly developing residential mortgage life insurance (RMLI) market. A reliable private prepayment dataset for China’s commercial center - the city of Shanghai - is deployed. Chapter 3 estimates the relationship between RMLI’s underlying mortgage prepayment risk and the observable macroeconomic factors, loan specific factors and borrower specific characteristics. A Cox proportional hazard model is adopted for this purpose. Chapter 4 summarises the book’s findings and highlights the contributions and recommendations made
Professor (Dr) HO Kim Hin, David PhD (University of Cambridge), MPhil (1st Cl Hons with Distinction) (University of Cambridge); Honorary Professor (Development Economics & Land Economy) (University of Hertfordshire); Honorary Doctorate of Letters (International Biographical Centre) (Cambridge); Systems Engineering (US Naval Postgraduate School), MRES (UK), AM NCREIF (US), FARES (US), MAEA (US), MESS, MSIM.Retiree (31 May 2019 aged 62 years) (School of Design and Environment) (National University of Singapore). Professor (Dr) HO Kim Hin, David, spent 31 years across several sectors, including the military, oil refining, aerospace engineering, public housing, resettlement, land acquisition, reclamation and international real estate investing. 6 years were in Pidemco Land Ltd (now CapitaLand Ltd) and GIC Real Estate Pte Ltd. 17 years were in the NUS School of Design and Environment. Estate. He holds the Master of Philosophy (First Class Honors with Distinction), Doctor of Philosophy from the University of Cambridge; and is Honorary Professor at the University of Hertfordshire (UK). He has published widely in 275 articles (inclusive of 91 articles in top peer reviewed, international journals); pertaining to real estate investment, real estate development, public urban policy, consultancies, public cum private funded research projects and so also published 15 major books. He was a member (District Judge equivalent) of the Valuation Review Board under the Singapore Ministry of Finance and the Singapore Courts. He was a Governor of the St Gabriel's Foundation, Singapore, and a Commissioner of the Singapore Scouts Association.
This book is concerned with the unique findings, contributions and recommendations made on several crucial issues, relating to the concomitant subjects of direct real estate (DRE) risk premiums and DRE risk management. Chapter 1 examines the institutional nature of legal origin and the total returns (TRs), from investing in a country’s DRE and via the adoption of a multi-factor arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model. Chapter 2 affirms the true historical volatility to be a reasonable estimation of international DRE risk premiums, when the autoregressive lag orders of the de-smoothed returns and the multi-factor model are taken into account. Chapter 3’s real world of international DRE investing counts on sustainable international DRE investing, imperative for the investing organization’s willingness and preparedness to effectively manage risk or uncertainty, early enough as part of the risk management cycle, in pursuing high risk-adjusted TRs for DRE assets. Chapter 4 recommends a model of the intuitive build-up approach of forming the DRE investment hurdle rates for new DRE investing. The resultant DRE risk premiums serve a rough guide to ensure that the DRE hurdle rate is stringent and high enough, to achieve the risk-adjusted and Sharpe-optimal portfolio TR. Chapter 5 examines the integrated DRE investment strategy for a 13-city Pan Asia DRE portfolio, of office, industrial real estate and public listed DRE companies, adopting the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the Markowitz quadratic programming models. Such models enable the versatile strategic asset (SAA) and the tactical asset (TAA) allocations. Chapter 6 enables the DRE institutional investor to achieve a comprehensive and in-depth return and risk assessment at the DRE level for the 4 prime Asia residential sectors of Shanghai (SH), Beijing (BJ), Bangkok (BK), and Kuala Lumpur (KL), under the DRE VaR, incremental DRE VaR and the risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC), Chapter 7 reiterates that public policies on macroeconomic management have to be consistent and non-conflicting in a widely accepted ‘policy compact’. It is because the policies reinforce the fundamental investment value of large and complex developments, affecting the sustainable viability like the integrated resort (IR)-at-Marina-Bay, Singapore. Chapter 8 draws attention to the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis, terrorism and viral epidemics, that compel more DRE investors to risk-diversify their operations beyond their primary market into other parts of Asia. However, limited studies examine risk-reduction diversification strategies via split returns i.e. decomposing TRs into rental-yield returns and capital value (CV) returns. Chapter 9 proposes and recommends the intelligent building (IB) framework, via the fuzzy logic (FL) engine, leading to a robust measure of building intelligence, and a standard guideline for a consistent performance-based structure for the promotion of the correct IB classification.
Chapter 1 explores the extent to which the fundamental structure and behaviour of the large-scale high-tech strategic industrial real estate development projects, can be shaped in terms of institutional and macroeconomic conditions. Capital budgeting techniques and copula risk functions, affirm the relative influence of uncertain macroeconomic and financial variables, on the profitability of Singapore’s Biopolis at the One North development. Chapter 2 looks at the dynamics of the large-scale high-tech strategic industrial real estate market. The Chapter aims to understand the fundamental structure and behaviour of the industrial real estate in Singapore, and to broadly indicate the relative impacts of macroeconomic conditions on such industrial real estate market dynamics. In Chapter 3 and for the case of Singapore, the Chapter adopts the unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, to understand how the space and asset markets in industrial real estate, are shaped via endogenous and exogenous factors. Chapter 4 construes the knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) strategy, to be a significant form of urban renewal of post-industrial cluster-based industrial cities. Urban planners are compelled to explore mixed-use zoning, the knowledge-based urban development-land use design model (KBUD-LUDM), its knowledge interaction design criteria (KIDC) and the land-use cost criteria (LUCC). Chapter 5 concludes this book.
Considers real estate market analysis in the context of economic theory pertaining to market disequilibria, utilising data from major cities in Asia as case studies. This book looks at managing real estate market uncertainty at the portfolio level through the analytical techniques of real estate asset allocation.
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