Keyra Primus's Books

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

An Empirical Investigation

By: Keyra Primus

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The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies

An Empirical Investigation

By: Keyra Primus

This paper examines the relative effectiveness of the use of indirect and direct monetary policy instruments in Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, by estimating a restricted Vector Autoregressive model with Exogenous Variables (VARX). The study assumes that the central bank conducts monetary policy using a Taylor-type rule and it evaluates the effects of a reserve requirement policy. The results show that although a positive shock to the policy interest rate has a direct effect on commercial banks' interest rates, there is a weak transmission to the real variables. Furthermore, an increase in the required reserve ratio is successful in reducing private sector credit and excess reserves, while at the same time alleviating pressures on the exchange rate. The findings therefore indicate that central banks in small open economies should consider using reserve requirements as a complement to interest rate policy, to achieve their macroeconomic objectives.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475537158

ISBN 13

9781475537154

Strengthening Public Expenditure Efficiency: Investment and Social Spending in Bulgaria

By: Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert,Keyra Primus

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Strengthening Public Expenditure Efficiency: Investment and Social Spending in Bulgaria

By: Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert,Keyra Primus

The scope for increasing public spending to meet Bulgaria’s development needs is limited by low revenue. Increasing the efficiency of spending is, therefore, crucial. This paper discusses how this can be achieved in four areas (public investment, social protection, health, and education). The methodology is based on a triple benchmarking. First, the level of public expenditure in each category is compared to other European countries. Second, the impact of spending is assessed against other European countries. Third, the input mix is analyzed to understand what components are responsible for the level of spending and for the quality of outcomes. Based on these results, the paper provides policy options for expenditure reform.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400210273

Case Studies in Tax Revenue Mobilization in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby,Mr.Jiro Honda,Hiroaki Miyamoto,Keyra Primus,Mouhamadou Sy

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Case Studies in Tax Revenue Mobilization in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby,Mr.Jiro Honda,Hiroaki Miyamoto,Keyra Primus,Mouhamadou Sy

How can Low-Income Countries (LICs) enhance tax revenue collection to finance their vast development needs? We address this question by analyzing seven tax reform experiences in LICs (Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Maldives, Mauritania, Rwanda, Senegal, and Uganda). Three lessons stand out, although reforms must be tailored to individual circumstances: (i) Tax reforms require first and foremost political commitment and buy-in from key stakeholders; (ii) Countries that pursue both revenue administration and tax policy reforms tend to see much larger and persistent gains; and (iii) A successful strategy often starts with fiscal reform measures with immediate effect to build momentum. These can include: simplifying the tax system; curbing exemptions; reforming indirect taxes on goods and services (e.g., excises); and better managing compliance risks through strengthening taxpayer segmentation (often beginning with strengthening the Large Taxpayers Office). A comprehensive reform strategy (e.g., a medium-term revenue strategy) can help to properly sequence reform measures and facilitate their implementation.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498315429

ISBN 13

9781498315425

Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation

The Case of Trinidad and Tobago

By: Keyra Primus

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Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation

The Case of Trinidad and Tobago

By: Keyra Primus

Managing resource revenues is a critical policy issue for small open resource-rich countries. This paper uses an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the transmission of resource price shocks and a shock to resource production in the Trinidad and Tobago economy. It also applies alternative fiscal rules to determine the optimal allocation of resource windfalls between spending today and saving in a sovereign wealth fund. The results show that spending all the resource windfall on consumption and investment creates more volatility and amplifies Dutch disease effects, when compared to the case where all the excess revenues are saved. Also, neither a policy of full spending nor full saving of the surplus revenue inflows is optimal if the government is concerned about both household welfare and fiscal stability. In order to minimize deviations from both objectives, the optimal fiscal response suggests that a larger fraction of the resource windfalls should be saved.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475537700

ISBN 13

9781475537703

Tax Revenue Mobilization Episodes in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries: Lessons from a New Dataset

By: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby,Ms.Anja Baum,Clay Hackney,Olamide Harrison,Keyra Primus,Ms.Veronique Salins

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Tax Revenue Mobilization Episodes in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries: Lessons from a New Dataset

By: Mr.Bernardin Akitoby,Ms.Anja Baum,Clay Hackney,Olamide Harrison,Keyra Primus,Ms.Veronique Salins

How do countries mobilize large tax revenue—defined as an average increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio of 0.5 percent per year over three years or more? To answer this question, we build a novel dataset covering 55 episodes of large tax revenue mobilization in low-income countries and emerging markets. We find that: (i) reforms of indirect taxes and exemptions are the most common tax policy measures; (ii) multi-pronged tax administration reforms often go hand in hand with tax policy measures or are stand alone; and (iii) sustainability of the episodes hinges on tax administration reforms in the key compliance areas (risk-based audits, registration, filing, payment, and reporting).

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484361539

ISBN 13

9781484361535

Avoid a Fall Or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility

By: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Mr. Jiro Honda,Paulomi Mehta,Mr. Kenji Moriyama,Keyra Primus,Mouhamadou Sy

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Avoid a Fall Or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility

By: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Mr. Jiro Honda,Paulomi Mehta,Mr. Kenji Moriyama,Keyra Primus,Mouhamadou Sy

High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513573683

ISBN 13

9781513573687

High Inflation in the Baltics: Disentangling Inflation Dynamics and Its Impact on Competitiveness

By: Alice Fan,Bingjie Hu,Sadhna Naik,Neree C.G.M. Noumon,Keyra Primus

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High Inflation in the Baltics: Disentangling Inflation Dynamics and Its Impact on Competitiveness

By: Alice Fan,Bingjie Hu,Sadhna Naik,Neree C.G.M. Noumon,Keyra Primus

This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the Baltics is largely driven by global factors, but domestic demand matters as well, suggesting that fiscal policy can play a role in containing inflation. Also, there is robust evidence of a long-run (cointegration) relationship between (real) wages in the tradeable (manufacturing) sector and productivity in the Baltics with short-term deviations self-correcting in Estonia and Lithuania only.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400270826

Crypto, Corruption, and Capital Controls: Cross-Country Correlations

By: Ms. Marwa Alnasaa,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Mr. Jiro Honda,Eslem Imamoglu,Mr. Paolo Mauro,Keyra Primus,Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov

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Crypto, Corruption, and Capital Controls: Cross-Country Correlations

By: Ms. Marwa Alnasaa,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Mr. Jiro Honda,Eslem Imamoglu,Mr. Paolo Mauro,Keyra Primus,Mr. Dmitriy L Rozhkov

Empirical investigation of the factors underlying the growing usage of crypto-assets is in its infancy, owing to data limitations. In this paper, we present a simple cross-country analysis drawing on recently released survey-based data. We explore the correlation of crypto-asset usage with indicators of corruption, capital controls, a history of high inflation, and other factors. We find that crypto-asset usage is significantly and positively associated with higher perception of corruption and more intensive capital controls. Notwithstanding the data limitations, the results support the case for regulating crypto-assets, including know-your-customer approaches, as opposed to taking a laissez-faire stance.

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