First published in 2001, Causality in Macroeconomics addresses the long-standing problems of causality while taking macroeconomics seriously. The practical concerns of the macroeconomist and abstract concerns of the philosopher inform each other. Grounded in pragmatic realism, the book rejects the popular idea that macroeconomics requires microfoundations, and argues that the macroeconomy is a set of structures that are best analyzed causally. Ideas originally due to Herbert Simon and the Cowles Commission are refined and generalized to non-linear systems, particularly to the non-linear systems with cross-equation restrictions that are ubiquitous in modern macroeconomic models with rational expectations (with and without regime-switching). These ideas help to clarify philosophical as well as economic issues. The structural approach to causality is then used to evaluate more familiar approaches to causality due to Granger, LeRoy and Glymour, Spirtes, Scheines and Kelly, as well as vector autoregressions, the Lucas critique, and the exogeneity concepts of Engle, Hendry and Richard.
The Methodology of Empirical Macroeconomics stakes out a pragmatic middle-ground between traditional, prescriptive economic methodology and recent descriptive (sociological or rhetorical) methodology. The former is sometimes seen as arrogantly telling economists how to do their work and the latter as irrelevant to their practice. The lectures are built around a case study of a concrete example of macroeconomic analysis. They demonstrate that economic methodology and the philosophy of science offer insights that help to resolve the genuine concerns of macroeconomists. Some examples of questions addressed include: What is the relationship between theoretical models and empirical observations? What is the relevance of macroeconomics to policy? Should macroeconomics be viewed as a special case of microeconomics? What is the place of long-standing philosophical issues in macroeconomics, such as the scope and nature of economic laws, the role of idealizations, methodological individualism, and the problem of causality?
A complete course in applied macroeconomics at the intermediate level that emphasizes the application of economic theory to real-world data and policy.
Monetary and banking problems in the world today arise not so much from the failure of specific policies as from more deep-seated problems in institutional structures. Individuals clearly make mistakes and legislatures make bad laws, but the institutions from which decisions and laws emanate determine the effectiveness of social operations and the value of social decisions. Unless we change the present institutional structure, we are not likely to get stable solutions to today's most serious problems—ongoing and often erratic inflation and serious banking instability. Money and the Nation State examines the history of modern monetary and banking arrangements, some of the major monetary and banking problems, and options for meaningful reform. The common theme of all the essays is that current arrangements result less from the accomplishments of great men than man-made institutions that society has inherited—central banks and "the legal and regulatory frameworks that accompany them. The contributors emphasize the impact of political interference on the workings of monetary and financial institutions. Not surprisingly, they find many problems arise because politically generated structures are inappropriate to the real needs of the individuals and groups they are meant to serve. Money and the Nation State provides an essential framework for those willing to return to first principles in thinking about the role of monetary institutions in economic life. Economists, financial theorists, and the interested citizen will find it stimulating reading.
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