Kent Osband's Books

Pandora’s Risk

Uncertainty at the Core of Finance

By: Kent Osband

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Pandora’s Risk

Uncertainty at the Core of Finance

By: Kent Osband

Author of the acclaimed work Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory, Kent Osband argues that uncertainty is central rather than marginal to finance. Markets don't trade mainly on changes in risk. They trade on changes in beliefs about risk, and in the process, markets unite, stretch, and occasionally defy beliefs. Recognizing this truth would make a world of difference in investing. Belittling uncertainty has created a rift between financial theory and practice and within finance theory itself, misguiding regulation and stoking huge financial imbalances. Sparking a revolution in the mindset of the investment professional, Osband recasts the market as a learning machine rather than a knowledge machine. The market continually errs, corrects itself, and makes new errors. Respecting that process, without idolizing it, will promote wiser investment, trading, and regulation. With uncertainty embedded at its core, Osband's rational approach points to a finance theory worthy of twenty-first-century investing.

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463

Publisher

Columbia University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0231525419

ISBN 13

9780231525411

General Equilibrium Under Shortage

A Generalized Barro-Grossman Model

By: Kent Osband

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General Equilibrium Under Shortage

A Generalized Barro-Grossman Model

By: Kent Osband

In several recent articles, the Barro-Grossman model of general equilibrium under shortage has been modified to incorporate money demand and alternative retail sales mechanisms. This paper extends this work to allow for spillovers in deficit goods markets (modeled as feedback of black market prices on the real value of nominal money balances). Comparative statics analysis confirms the conventional view, recently challenged in the literature, that government expenditure in a shortage economy tends to reduce output. The conventional view associating shortage with higher savings is, however, substantially qualified. The model appears to be more consistent than previous models with the available empirical evidence, and offers insights into the consequences of price and monetary reform in shortage economies.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451965664

ISBN 13

9781451965667

Index Number Biases During Price Liberalization

By: Kent Osband

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Index Number Biases During Price Liberalization

By: Kent Osband

When a formerly centrally-planned economy frees prices and allows or compels producers to respond to market signals, conventional measures tend to severely overstate short–run output decline and inflation. In part the overstatement stems from neglect of private sector activity, or from belated recognition of inflation previously disguised as quality improvements. Even when individual prices and outputs are correctly measured, however, shifts in relative prices consequent to price decontrol create a serious aggregation problem. Moreover, the standard indices ignore the deflationary trends in black markets. Superior growth and inflation indices are devised using a combination of official and black market prices.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

145184977X

ISBN 13

9781451849776

Economic Crisis in a Shortage Economy

By: Kent Osband

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Economic Crisis in a Shortage Economy

By: Kent Osband

It is not unusual for reforming socialist economies to relax wage controls without hardening budget constraints on enterprises or freeing consumer goods prices. This policy can be dangerously destabilizing. While higher wages permit workers to purchase more of some goods, they also tend to exacerbate shortages and to breed waste and corruption. Beyond a certain level, economy-wide wage hikes will worsen worker welfare. This is true regardless of whether deficit goods are strictly rationed, are sold randomly at official prices to queuing workers, or are offered to workers by “insiders” only at black market prices. However, the form of allocation does influence output and worker welfare.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451845618

ISBN 13

9781451845617

Can the Release of a Monetary Overhang Trigger Hyperinflation?

By: Shoukang Lin,Kent Osband

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Can the Release of a Monetary Overhang Trigger Hyperinflation?

By: Shoukang Lin,Kent Osband

It is widely feared that, once prices are decontrolled in the formerly centrally–planned economies, households’ release of previously accumulated money will trigger a hyperinflation. This paper finds, instead, that whether a country’s fiscal, monetary, and labor market policies are destabilizing typically does not depend on the money stock. However, the release of a monetary overhang can precipitate a large initial real wage shock. To the extent such a shock is not feasible politically, there is a motive for monetary reform, which must be weighed against the cost of reduced public confidence in money.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451920954

ISBN 13

9781451920956

Energy Pricing in the Soviet Union

By: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar,Kent Osband

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Energy Pricing in the Soviet Union

By: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar,Kent Osband

Energy exports, which are already the primary source of Soviet convertible currency earnings and an important contributor to the budget, could bring in much more revenue if the Soviet Union were to reduce its extremely high levels of energy consumption. To encourage this process, energy prices need to be raised substantially. Under plausible assumptions, it is shown that an increase in prices could yield sizable foreign exchange earnings. Large increases in energy prices could, however, threaten the solvency of industrial enterprises, precipitate major economic and social dislocation, and severely strain interrepublican economic relationships.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451854765

ISBN 13

9781451854763

Book's by Kent Osband

Pandora’s Risk

Pandora’s Risk

General Equilibrium Under Shortage

General Equilibrium Under Shortage

Index Number Biases During Price Liberalization

Index Number Biases During Price Liberalization

Economic Crisis in a Shortage Economy

Economic Crisis in a Shortage Economy

Can the Release of a Monetary Overhang Trigger Hyperinflation?

Can the Release of a Monetary Overhang Trigger Hyperinflation?

Energy Pricing in the Soviet Union

Energy Pricing in the Soviet Union

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