Karlygash Zhunussova's Books

Carbon Taxes Or Emissions Trading Systems?

Instrument Choice and Design

By: Mr. Simon Black,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Carbon Taxes Or Emissions Trading Systems?

Instrument Choice and Design

By: Mr. Simon Black,Karlygash Zhunussova

Carbon pricing should be a central element of climate mitigation strategies, helping countries transition to ‘net zero’ greenhouse gas emissions over the next three decades. Policymakers considering introducing or scaling up carbon pricing face technical choices between carbon taxes and emissions trading systems (ETSs) and in their design. This includes administration, price levels, relation to other mitigation instruments, use of revenues to address efficiency and distributional objectives, supporting measures to address competitiveness concerns, extension to broader emissions sources, and coordination at the global level. Political economy considerations also affect the choice and design of instruments. This paper discusses such issues in the choice between and design of carbon taxes and ETSs, providing guidance, broader considerations, and quantitative analyses. Overall, carbon taxes have significant practical advantages over ETSs (especially for developing countries) due to ease of administration, price certainty to promote investment, the potential to raise significant revenues, and coverage of broader emissions sources—but ETSs can have significant political economy advantages.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400212307

A Low-Carbon Future for the Middle East and Central Asia: What are the Options?

By: Gareth Anderson,Ms. Jiayi Ma,Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Karlygash Zhunussova

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A Low-Carbon Future for the Middle East and Central Asia: What are the Options?

By: Gareth Anderson,Ms. Jiayi Ma,Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev,Ling Zhu,Karlygash Zhunussova

Nearly all countries in the Middle East and Central Asia have pledged to contain greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Paris Agreement. The purpose of this paper is to identify the menu of fiscal policy options which would allow the region to fulfil its missions reduction commitment. Specifically, the paper examines and estimates the tradeoff between two broad categories of fiscal policies: public investments in renewable sources of energy and measures that raise the effective price of fossil fuels. Such a dichotomy captures the key medium-term macroeconomic and long-term intergenerational trade-offs that are arguably the most pertinent for the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia where governments are likely to play a leading role in the low-carbon transition. At one end of this tradeoff, a gradual removal of all fuel subsidies and, in addition, a phased introduction of a carbon tax of $8 per metric-ton of CO2-equivalent in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) and $4 in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) over the next eight years could achieve the region’s 2030 emissions abatement goals without additional investments in renewables. T Alternatively, additional combined public investments of close to US$900 billion in renewable sources of energy between 2023 and 2030 would allow achieving the region’s emissions reduction targets with fuel subsidies reduced by two thirds and without any carbon tax. In practice, most countries are likely to choose a mix of these policies based on their individual circumstances. Importantly, the deployment of non-fiscal mitigation policies—such as tightening of environmental regulations, such as raising emissions standards, or incentivizing green private investments—could play an important role in reducing the required fiscal effort and improving the tradeoff described above. Global and regional initiatives to provide affordable financial support and technological assistance would be equally important in improving the region’s economic options. Regardless of the chosen strategy, delaying the rollout of mitigation policies would make achieving the emissions reduction targets more difficult and costly. Therefore, an early start will be essential to tread a smoother path toward a low-carbon future in the Middle East and Central Asia.

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ISBN 13

9798400224126

Is the Paris Agreement Working? A Stocktake of Global Climate Mitigation

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Is the Paris Agreement Working? A Stocktake of Global Climate Mitigation

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Karlygash Zhunussova

Urgent and aggressive action to cut greenhouse gas emissions this decade is needed. As countries take stock of the Paris Agreement, this Note provides IMF staff’s annual assessment of global climate mitigation policy. Global ambition needs to be more than quadrupled: emissions cuts of 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 are needed for 1.5 degrees Celsius, but current targets would only achieve 11 percent. We provide options for ratcheting-up ambition equitably. Implementation could be accelerated via agreements on minimum carbon prices. Drastic increases in mitigation investment are needed, requiring policies to shift private sector incentives. Climate finance should be scaled-up, with a new goal aligned with needs in developing countries. The development and diffusion of low-carbon technologies should be accelerated collaboratively. Overall, the Paris Agreement is making progress, but a response to the Global Stocktake that prioritizes decisive action this decade is critical.

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ISBN 13

9798400257889

A Framework for Comparing Climate Mitigation Policies Across Countries

By: Mr. Simon Black,Danielle N Minnett,Ian W.H. Parry,Mr. James Roaf,Karlygash Zhunussova

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A Framework for Comparing Climate Mitigation Policies Across Countries

By: Mr. Simon Black,Danielle N Minnett,Ian W.H. Parry,Mr. James Roaf,Karlygash Zhunussova

There is growing interest in international coordination over climate mitigation policy. Climate clubs or international carbon price floors could complement the Paris Agreement by helping to deliver the near-term cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions needed to contain global warming to 1.5 to 2oC. To ensure inclusivity, these arrangements need to account for varying mitigation policies across countries, including carbon pricing, fuel taxes, subsidy reform, and non-pricing approaches like regulations. A transparent methodology is needed to compare and monitor mitigation effort by countries implementing diverse policy packages. This paper presents and illustrates a methodology for converting climate mitigation policies and targets into their carbon price equivalents and applies it to the Group of Twenty (G20) countries.

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ISBN 13

9798400228285

Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Sleepwalking to the Cliff Edge? A Wake-up Call for Global Climate Action

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Karlygash Zhunussova

Urgent action to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is needed now. Early next year, all countries will set new emissions targets for 2035 while revising their 2030 targets. Global GHGs must be cut by 25 and 50 percent below 2019 levels by 2030 to limit global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C respectively. But current targets would only cut emissions by 12 percent, meaning global ambition needs to be doubled to quadrupled. Further delay will lead to an ‘emissions cliff edge’, implying implausible cuts in GHGs and putting put 1.5°C beyond reach. This Note provides IMF staff’s annual assessment of global climate mitigation policy. It illustrates options for equitably aligning country targets with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. It also provides guidance on modelling needed to set emissions targets and quantify climate mitigation policy impacts.

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ISBN 13

9798400289644

Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian Parry,Mr. James Roaf,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian Parry,Mr. James Roaf,Karlygash Zhunussova

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.

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ISBN 10

1557754403

ISBN 13

9781557754400

A Comprehensive Climate Mitigation Strategy for Mexico

By: Mr. Simon Black,Koralai Kirabaeva,Ian Parry,Mr. Mehdi Raissi,Karlygash Zhunussova

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A Comprehensive Climate Mitigation Strategy for Mexico

By: Mr. Simon Black,Koralai Kirabaeva,Ian Parry,Mr. Mehdi Raissi,Karlygash Zhunussova

This paper discusses a comprehensive strategy for implementing Mexico’s climate mitigation commitments. Progressively increasing carbon prices from current levels of US$3 per ton to US$75 per ton by 2030 would achieve Mexico’s mitigation pledges, while raising annual revenues of 1.8 percent of GDP and cumulatively averting 11,600 deaths from local air pollution. The carbon price would raise fossil fuel and electricity prices, imposing burdens of 2.7 percent of consumption on the average Mexican household. However, recycling carbon pricing revenues would offset most of this burden, and targeted transfers could make the reform pro-poor and pro-equity. Additionally, the economic efficiency costs of carbon pricing (0.3 percent of GDP in 2030) are more than offset by local air pollution and other domestic environmental benefits (before even counting climate benefits). Mexico would need a more ambitious 2030 target if it were to follow many other countries in adopting a midcentury ‘net-zero’ emissions target. To enhance the effectiveness of the mitigation strategy, carbon pricing can be reinforced with sectoral instruments, such as feebates in the transport, power, industry, building, forestry, extractive, and agricultural sectors. Complementary policies are also needed to support public investment in the clean energy transition.

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ISBN 10

1513599844

ISBN 13

9781513599847

Fiscal Implications of Global Decarbonization

By: Mr. Simon Black,Mr. Ruud de Mooij,Vitor Gaspar,Ian W.H. Parry,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Fiscal Implications of Global Decarbonization

By: Mr. Simon Black,Mr. Ruud de Mooij,Vitor Gaspar,Ian W.H. Parry,Karlygash Zhunussova

Internationally coordinated climate mitigation policies can effectively put the world on a path toward achieving the agreed Paris temperature goals. Such coordination could be initiated by large players, such as China, the US, India, the African Union, and the European Union. We find that the implications for fiscal revenues over time will be shaped by a combination of rising carbon prices, the gradual erosion of existing fuel tax bases, and possible revenue sharing arrangements. Public spending rises during the transition to build green public infrastructure, promote innovation, and support clean technology deployment. Countries will also need financing for compensating vulnerable households and industries, and to transfer funds to poor countries. With well-designed climate-fiscal policy relying on carbon pricing, global decarbonization will have anything from moderately positive to moderately negative impacts on fiscal balances in high-income countries. For middle and low-income countries, net fiscal impacts are generally positive and can be significant. Revenue sharing at the global level would make an historical contribution to breaching the financial divide between rich and poor countries.

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ISBN 13

9798400269516

The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Nate Vernon,Karlygash Zhunussova

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The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change

By: Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Nate Vernon,Karlygash Zhunussova

To stabilize the climate, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by 25 to 50 percent by 2030 compared to 2019. Such an unprecedented rate of decarbonization necessitates climate mitigation policies across countries, notably carbon pricing, fossil fuel subsidy reform, renewable subsidies, feebates, emission rate regulations, and public investments. To design and implement effective, efficient, and equitable policies, governments need tools to assess economic, environmental, fiscal, and social impacts. To support this effort, the IMF and World Bank are making their joint Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT) available to governments. CPAT is a transparent, flexible, and user-friendly model covering over 200 countries. It allows for the rapid quantification of impacts of climate mitigation policies, including on energy demand, prices, emissions, revenues, welfare, GDP, households and industries, local air pollution and health, and many other metrics. This paper describes the CPAT model, its data sources, key assumptions, and caveats.

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ISBN 13

9798400242342

A Comprehensive Package of Macroeconomic Policy Measures for Implementing China’s Climate Mitigation Strategy

By: Jean Chateau,Ms. Wenjie Chen,Ms. Florence Jaumotte,Karlygash Zhunussova

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A Comprehensive Package of Macroeconomic Policy Measures for Implementing China’s Climate Mitigation Strategy

By: Jean Chateau,Ms. Wenjie Chen,Ms. Florence Jaumotte,Karlygash Zhunussova

This paper presents ways for China to achieve its climate goals while also attain high-quality growth—growth that is balanced, inclusive, and green. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that is calibrated to China, multiple scenarios are considered that incorporate a sequence of layered policies: (i) frontloading mitigation with an earlier emissions peak, (ii) power market reforms, and (iii) economic rebalancing. The results highlight that these policies can significantly contribute to the success of the climate strategy overall, including by lowering the shadow price of carbon as well as the associated mitigation costs. Distribution analysis offers proposals to lessen the impact on vulnerable households.

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ISBN 13

9798400215711

Climate Mitigation Policy in Türkiye

By: Ian W.H. Parry,Danielle N Minnett,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Climate Mitigation Policy in Türkiye

By: Ian W.H. Parry,Danielle N Minnett,Karlygash Zhunussova

This paper discusses potential elements of a comprehensive strategy for making headway on Türkiye’s net zero emissions pedge for 2053. These elements include: (i) aligning 2030 emissions commitments with long term neutrality; (ii) implementing a carbon price rising to an ilustrative $75 per tonne by 2030; (iii) enhancing acceptability through using carbon pricing revenues efficiently and equitably and including competitveness measures; (iv) introducing various feebate schemes (the fiscal analogue of regulations) to reinforce mitigation incentives in the power, industry, transport, building, forestry, and agricultural sectors. According to modelling results a phased revenue-neutral $75 carbon price reduces CO2 emisisons 21 percent below baseline levels in 2030, raises revenues of 1.7 percent of GDP, avoids 11,000 air pollution deaths over the decade, while imposing an average burden on households of 3 percent of their consumption (before revenue-recycling). With revenues used for targeted transfers and labor tax reductions the overall policy is pro-poor and pro-equity (average household is better off by 0.4 percent).

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ISBN 13

9798400241291

Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed Up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

By: Mr. Anil Ari,Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Mr. Simon Black,Oya Celasun,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Victor Mylonas,Ian W.H. Parry,Iulia Teodoru,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed Up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

By: Mr. Anil Ari,Mr. Nicolas Arregui,Mr. Simon Black,Oya Celasun,Ms. Dora M Iakova,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Victor Mylonas,Ian W.H. Parry,Iulia Teodoru,Karlygash Zhunussova

We estimate that the recent surge in international fossil fuel prices will raise European households’ cost of living in 2022 by close to 7 percent of consumption on average. Household burdens vary significantly across and within countries, but in most cases they are regressive. Policymakers have mostly responded to the shock with broad-based price-suppressing measures, including subsidies, tax reductions, and price controls. Going forward, the policy emphasis should shift rapidly towards allowing price signals to operate more freely and providing income relief to the vulnerable. The surge in energy prices will encourage energy conservation and investments in renewable energy, but the manyfold rise in natural gas prices could lead to a persistent switch towards coal. To ensure steady progress towards carbon emissions reduction goals, authorities could use the opportunity to strengthen carbon pricing when global fossil fuel prices decline in the future. Non-price incentives for investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy should also be enhanced, as envisaged in the RePowerEU plan.

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ISBN 13

9798400214592

Jordan

Climate Policy Diagnostic

By: Suphachol Suphachalasai,Hasan Dudu,Diala Al Masri,Fabiana Machado,Junko Mochizuki,Karlygash Zhunussova

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Jordan

Climate Policy Diagnostic

By: Suphachol Suphachalasai,Hasan Dudu,Diala Al Masri,Fabiana Machado,Junko Mochizuki,Karlygash Zhunussova

This technical assistance conducts a climate policy diagnostic for Jordan, covering climate adaptation and mitigation policy, as well as enabling institutions. Jordan faces acute challenges of climate-food-water nexus—innovative climate policy approaches are key, given limited fiscal space. While Jordan needs to strengthen the investment climate for climate investment through streamlining existing policies and alleviating critical barriers, making social policy more shock-responsive and strengthening risk management can go a long way in building resilience. As climate-related risks globally intensify, the government is encouraged to move toward a risk-informed policy and financing strategy.

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