Karim Barhoumi's Books

Public Investment Efficiency in Sub-Saharan African Countries

By: Karim Barhoumi,Ha Vu,Shirin Nikaein Towfighian,Mr.Rodolfo Maino

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Public Investment Efficiency in Sub-Saharan African Countries

By: Karim Barhoumi,Ha Vu,Shirin Nikaein Towfighian,Mr.Rodolfo Maino

There is significant room to improve public investment efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Investment in sub-Saharan African countries is lagging vis-à-vis peers such as emerging and developing Asia as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region’s infrastructure is perceived as being of relatively low quality. Improving the efficiency of sizable investment programs in the region could contribute to more solid economic growth and help achieve desired social priorities and development goals. Results point to some variability in public investment efficiency within the region. Comparing efficiency scores across country groups suggests that investment efficiency in sub-Saharan African oil exporters tends to be lower than in sub-Saharan African non-resource-intensive countries. Additionally, countries in East African Community (EAC) perform better than those in Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) and West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Stronger institutions could foster more efficient public investment. The regression results in this paper show a positive correlation between public investment efficiency and the quality of institutions, suggesting that devel-oping stronger institutions in sub-Saharan Africa could lead to a significant improvement in investment efficiency. This is particularly relevant for coun-tries with weak institutional quality, where governments may use capital spending as a vehicle for rent-seeking, leading to inefficient spending. Given the current drive for scaling up investment in sub-Saharan Africa, the task of improving institutions quickly should become a priority.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484366409

ISBN 13

9781484366400

Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy

By: Karim Barhoumi,Reda Cherif,Mr.Nooman Rebei

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Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy

By: Karim Barhoumi,Reda Cherif,Mr.Nooman Rebei

We study empirically the reaction of fiscal policy to changes in the permanent and transitory components of GDP in a panel of countries. We find evidence that government spending tends to be counter-cyclical conditional on temporary shocks and pro-cyclical conditional on permanent shocks. We also find no evidence that developing countries are systematically different from developed ones in terms of fiscal policy. We present a theory featuring a fiscal reaction function to the output gap and a measure of debt sustainability. The fiscal impulse response to a permanent (temporary) shock to GDP is positive (negative) as the effect on debt sustainability (current output gap) dominates. The results are mostly sensitive to the relative weight of debt sustainability in the fiscal reaction function as well as to the extent of real rigidities in the economy.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513574752

ISBN 13

9781513574752

Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Karim Barhoumi,Seung Mo Choi,Tara Iyer,Jiakun Li,Franck Ouattara,Mr. Andrew J Tiffin,Jiaxiong Yao

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Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Karim Barhoumi,Seung Mo Choi,Tara Iyer,Jiakun Li,Franck Ouattara,Mr. Andrew J Tiffin,Jiaxiong Yao

The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400210136

Make Investment Scaling-Up Work in Benin

A Macro-Fiscal Analysis

By: Karim Barhoumi,Mr.Larry Cui,Ms.Christine Dieterich,Nicolas End,Matteo Ghilardi,Alexander Raabe,Mr.Sergio Sola

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Make Investment Scaling-Up Work in Benin

A Macro-Fiscal Analysis

By: Karim Barhoumi,Mr.Larry Cui,Ms.Christine Dieterich,Nicolas End,Matteo Ghilardi,Alexander Raabe,Mr.Sergio Sola

This paper conducts a systematic growth and fiscal analysis to determine: (1) the growth potential of Benin’s ambitious scaling-up of investment, and (2) how the government can generate the necessary fiscal space needed to increase investment without jeopardizing Benin’s solid macroeconomic performance.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513596810

ISBN 13

9781513596815

A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

By: Karim Barhoumi,Laurent Ferrara

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A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

By: Karim Barhoumi,Laurent Ferrara

This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.

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