Kalin Tintchev's Books

Financial Stability Reports

What Are they Good for?

By: Ms.Sònia Muñoz,Mr.Samir Jahjah,Mr.Martin Cihak,Ms.Sharika Teh Sharifuddin,Mr.Kalin Tintchev

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Financial Stability Reports

What Are they Good for?

By: Ms.Sònia Muñoz,Mr.Samir Jahjah,Mr.Martin Cihak,Ms.Sharika Teh Sharifuddin,Mr.Kalin Tintchev

The global financial crisis has renewed policymakers' interest in improving the policy framework for financial stability, and an open question is to what extent and in what form should financial stability reports be part of it. We examine the recent experience with central banks' financial stability reports, and find?despite some progress in recent years?that forward-looking perspective and analysis of financial interconnectedness are often lacking. We also find that higher-quality reports tend to be associated with more stable financial environments. However, there is only a weak empirical link between financial stability report publication per se and financial stability. This suggests room for improvement in terms of the quality of financial stability reports.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463929927

ISBN 13

9781463929923

Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis

By: Mr.Kalin Tintchev

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Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis

By: Mr.Kalin Tintchev

The unprecedented collapse of international interbank borrowing was a prominent feature of the global financial crisis that started in August 2007. This paper focuses on the drivers of the retrenchment from 32 advanced and emerging banking systems. Using novel risk-weighted indexes the paper examines whether the banking systems’ access to credit was related to their domestic financial soundness and exposure to distressed international counterparties. The empirical findings suggest that both domestic and international risk factors contributed to the decline in international interbank borrowing during the crisis.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475544693

ISBN 13

9781475544695

From Stress to Costress

Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems

By: Mr.Rodolfo Maino,Mr.Kalin Tintchev

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From Stress to Costress

Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems

By: Mr.Rodolfo Maino,Mr.Kalin Tintchev

This paper presents an integrated framework for assessing systemic risk. The framework models banks’ capital asset ratios as a function of future losses and credit growth using a generalized method of moments to calibrate shocks to credit quality and credit growth. The analysis is complemented by a simple measure of systemic risk, which captures tail risk comovement among banks in the system. The main contribution of this paper is to advance a simple framework to integrate systemic risk scenarios that assess the impact of aggregate and idiosyncratic factors. The analysis is based on CreditRisk+, which uses analytical techniques—similar to those applied in the insurance industry - to estimate banks’ credit portfolio loss distributions, making no assumptions about the cause of default.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475576560

ISBN 13

9781475576566

Hanging Out to Dry? Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Drought in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

By: Mr. Kalin I Tintchev,Laura Jaramillo

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Hanging Out to Dry? Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Drought in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

By: Mr. Kalin I Tintchev,Laura Jaramillo

Using a comprehensive drought measure and a panel autoregressive distributed lag model, the paper finds that worsening drought conditions can result in long-term scarring of real GDP per capita growth and affect long-term price stability in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS), more so than in other countries, leaving them further behind. Lower crop productivity and slower investment are key channels through which drought impacts economic growth in FCS. In a high emissions scenario, drought conditions will cut 0.4 percentage points of FCS’ growth of real GDP per capita every year over the next 40 years and increase average inflation by 2 percentage points. Drought will also increase hunger in FCS, from alreay high levels. The confluence of lower food production and higher prices in a high emissions scenario would push 50 million more people in FCS into hunger. The macroeconomic effects of drought in FCS countries are amplified by their low copying capacity due to high public debt, low social spending, insufficient trade openness, high water insecurity, and weak governance.

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ISBN 13

9798400277221

Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

By: Laura Jaramillo,Aliona Cebotari,Yoro Diallo,Rhea Gupta,Yugo Koshima,Chandana Kularatne,Jeong Dae Lee,Sidra Rehman,Kalin Tintchev,Mr. Kalin I Tintchev,Fang Yang

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Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

By: Laura Jaramillo,Aliona Cebotari,Yoro Diallo,Rhea Gupta,Yugo Koshima,Chandana Kularatne,Jeong Dae Lee,Sidra Rehman,Kalin Tintchev,Mr. Kalin I Tintchev,Fang Yang

Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.

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