Julien Reynaud's Books

IMF Lending in an Interconnected World

By: Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

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IMF Lending in an Interconnected World

By: Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF lending cycles. Second, using a panel of 91 advanced, emerging, and frontier economies over 1992-2014, we show that global factors and interconnectedness, as proxied by a countries’ potential exposure to economic spillovers from trade partners, together with more traditional idiosyncratic factors, have a significant impact on the probability that a member country obtains financial assistance from the IMF. Our results are robust to various robustness checks. The approach presented in this paper can be used to assess future demand for IMF financial assistance.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484308964

ISBN 13

9781484308967

Caribbean Energy

Macro-Related Challenges

By: Arnold McIntyre,Ahmed El-Ashram,Marcio Ronci,Julien Reynaud,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ke Wang,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mark Scott Lutz

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Caribbean Energy

Macro-Related Challenges

By: Arnold McIntyre,Ahmed El-Ashram,Marcio Ronci,Julien Reynaud,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ke Wang,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mark Scott Lutz

High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513560743

ISBN 13

9781513560748

Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

By: Nicolas Mäder,Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

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Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

By: Nicolas Mäder,Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external financing needs, larger exchange rate depreciation, lower GDP growth, as well as deteriorated global financial conditions, are associated with larger individual IMF arrangement sizes. Using the estimated parameters, Monte Carlo simulation of a wide spectrum of global shock scenarios suggest that the distribution of potential aggregate IMF lending exhibits a substantial right tail. Our approach may provide an insightful input to broader policy discussions on the adequacy of the IMF resources.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498324614

ISBN 13

9781498324618

Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Ecuador

By: Juan-Pablo Erraez,Julien Reynaud

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Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Ecuador

By: Juan-Pablo Erraez,Julien Reynaud

A textbook argument in favor of adopting another country’s legal tender is that it imposes strong constraints on money creation and therefore fiscal dominance. In Ecuador, an officially dollarized economy since January 2000, a series of accounting practices and subsequent changes in legislations approved over the period 2009-2014 allowed an expansion of the Central Bank of Ecuador’s (CBE) balance sheet to finance the central government. At its peak, central bank financing of the government represented 10 percent of GDP. This resulted in large liabilities to the CBE that translated into low reserve coverage, putting the public and private financial systems and ultimately the dollarization regime at risk. In this paper, we first present the legal and accounting processes behind the expansion of the CBE's balance sheet and some stylized facts. In the second section, we establish a stress test-like methodology to show how the expansion of the CBE’s balance sheet induced strong pressures on CBE’s liquidity. Ultimately, such liquidity stress at the CBE translated into high cash inflows needs, i.e. external debt, for the central government.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400226793

Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

By: Federico Diaz Kalan,Ms.Adina Popescu,Julien Reynaud

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Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

By: Federico Diaz Kalan,Ms.Adina Popescu,Julien Reynaud

There is evidence that fiscal rules, in particular well-designed rules, are associated with lower sovereign spreads. However, the impact of noncompliance with fiscal rules on spreads has not been examined in the literature. This paper estimates the effect of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) on sovereign spreads of European Union member states. Based on a sample including the 28 European Union countries over the period 1999 to 2016, sovereign spreads of countries placed under an EDP are found to be on average higher compared to countries that are not under an EDP. The interpretation of this result is not straight-forward as different channels may be at play, in particular those related with the credibility and the design of the EU fiscal framework. The specification accounts for typical macroeconomic, fiscal, and financial determinants of sovereign spreads, the System Generalized Method of Moments estimator is used to control for endogeneity, and results are robust to a range of checks on variables and estimators.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484351029

ISBN 13

9781484351024

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

By: Tannous Kass-Hanna,Julien Reynaud,Chris Walker

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Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

By: Tannous Kass-Hanna,Julien Reynaud,Chris Walker

Empirical (employing the Blanchard-Perotti framework) and modeling (using a country-specific DSGE model) approaches are used to estimate fiscal multipliers by policy instrument for Bolivia, to evaluate possible adjustments in a fiscal consolidation strategy. Multipliers are also estimated using alternative assumptions about the accompanying exchange rate regime and capital mobility, highlighting the importance of the policy mix in determining the impact of fiscal adjustments. The study exploits the DSGE modeling structure to assess this interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in a lower middle-income country under different exchange rate regimes. It finds that expenditure multipliers fall into the range of 1/3 to 2/3, with public investment multipliers slightly higher than government consumption multipliers over longer horizons, and multipliers generally higher under a peg than inflation targeting. Tax multipliers are shown to be about half of expenditure multipliers.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400260285

Gauging Housing Supply in Canada

A Stock Approach

By: Julien Reynaud

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Gauging Housing Supply in Canada

A Stock Approach

By: Julien Reynaud

This paper estimates Canada’s housing stock to gauge the supply-side component of the recent exuberance in the Canadian housing sector. The paper adds to the current related literature by focusing on housing units and reconstructing housing stock and households series. An error correction model is estimated at the provincial level over the period 1980-2013 to estimate a measure of housing stock desequilibrium. The model predicts an excess supply in the order of 1⁄2 percent above the housing stock level consistent with fundamentals as of 2013.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513586041

ISBN 13

9781513586045

Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

By: Ms.Alla Myrvoda,Julien Reynaud

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Monetary Policy Transmission in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

By: Ms.Alla Myrvoda,Julien Reynaud

This paper empirically investigates international and domestic monetary policy transmission mechanisms in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). We assess interest rate pass-through of both the U.S. policy rate and the ECCU minimum saving deposit rate (MSR) into domestic interest rates through the interest rate channel. While economic theory suggests that the international pass-through should be high in small open economies with fixed exchange rates and open capital accounts, our findings, based on regression analysis, point to a low long-run pass-through coefficient of the U.S. interest rate. The domestic transmission channel, however, is found to operate through changes in the MSR. The results hold for different interest rates (deposit and lending) and are supported by survey-based findings.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484351312

ISBN 13

9781484351314

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

By: Francesca G Caselli,Julien Reynaud

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Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

By: Francesca G Caselli,Julien Reynaud

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may affect the adoption of domestic reforms through peer pressure and imitational effects. We find that fiscal rules correlate with lower deficits, but the positive link disappears when endogeneity is correctly addressed. However, when considering an index of fiscal rules’ design, we show that well-designed rules have a statistically significant impact on fiscal balances. We conduct several robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498302831

ISBN 13

9781498302838

How to Design Subnational Fiscal Rules

A Primer

By: Luc Eyraud,Andrew Hodge,Mr.John Ralyea,Julien Reynaud

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How to Design Subnational Fiscal Rules

A Primer

By: Luc Eyraud,Andrew Hodge,Mr.John Ralyea,Julien Reynaud

This note discusses how to design subnational fiscal rules, including how to select them and calibrate them. It expands on the guidance provided at the national level on rule selection and calibration in IMF (2018a) and IMF (2018b). Thinking on subnational fiscal rules is still evolving, including their effectiveness (for example, Heinemann, Moessinger, and Yeter 2018; Kotia and Lledó 2016; Foremny 2014), and this note only provides a first analysis based on international experiences and the technical assistance provided by the IMF. Main findings are summarized in Box 1. The note is divided into five sections. The first section defines fiscal rules. The second section discusses the rationale for subnational rules. The third section provides some guidance on how to select the appropriate rule(s) and whether they should differ across individual jurisdictions. The fourth section explores the issue of flexibility by looking at how rules should adjust to shocks. Finally, the last section focuses on the “calibration” of the rules.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513527037

ISBN 13

9781513527031

Lithium Batteries

Science and Technology

By: Christian Julien,Alain Mauger,Ashok Vijh,Karim Zaghib

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Lithium Batteries

Science and Technology

By: Christian Julien,Alain Mauger,Ashok Vijh,Karim Zaghib

The book focuses on the solid-state physics, chemistry and electrochemistry that are needed to grasp the technology of and research on high-power Lithium batteries. After an exposition of fundamentals of lithium batteries, it includes experimental techniques used to characterize electrode materials, and a comprehensive analysis of the structural, physical, and chemical properties necessary to insure quality control in production. The different properties specific to each component of the batteries are discussed in order to offer manufacturers the capability to choose which kind of battery should be used: which compromise between power and energy density and which compromise between energy and safety should be made, and for which cycling life. Although attention is primarily on electrode materials since they are paramount in terms of battery performance and cost, different electrolytes are also reviewed in the context of safety concerns and in relation to the solid-electrolyte interface. Separators are also reviewed in light of safety issues. The book is intended not only for scientists and graduate students working on batteries but also for engineers and technologists who want to acquire a sound grounding in the fundamentals of battery science arising from the interaction of electrochemistry, solid state materials science, surfaces and interfaces.

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626

Publisher

Springer

Published Date

ISBN 10

331919108X

ISBN 13

9783319191089

Nanoelectromechanical Systems

By: Laurent Duraffourg,Julien Arcamone

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Nanoelectromechanical Systems

By: Laurent Duraffourg,Julien Arcamone

This book will present the theoretical and technological elements of nanosystems. Among the different topics discussed, the authors include the electromechanical properties of NEMS, the scaling effects that give these their interesting properties for different applications and the current manufacturing processes. The authors aim to provide useful tools for future readers and will provide an accurate picture of current and future research in the field.

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212

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

1848216696

ISBN 13

9781848216693

Apoptosis, Genomic Integrity, and Cancer

By: Julien L. Van Lancker

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Apoptosis, Genomic Integrity, and Cancer

By: Julien L. Van Lancker

This book introduces readers to the molecules involved in apoptosis and genomal integrity and considers the gain or loss of the functions that lead to cancer.

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448

Publisher

Jones & Bartlett Learning

Published Date

ISBN 10

0763745413

ISBN 13

9780763745417

Constitutional Law in France

By: Marie-Luce Paris,Julie Foulon,Hugo-Bernard Pouillaude,Julien Sterck

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Constitutional Law in France

By: Marie-Luce Paris,Julie Foulon,Hugo-Bernard Pouillaude,Julien Sterck

Derived from the renowned multi-volume International Encyclopaedia of Laws, this very useful analysis of constitutional law in France provides essential information on the country’s sources of constitutional law, its form of government, and its administrative structure. Lawyers who handle transnational matters will appreciate the clarifications of particular terminology and its application. Throughout the book, the treatment emphasizes the specific points at which constitutional law affects the interpretation of legal rules and procedure. Thorough coverage by a local expert fully describes the political system, the historical background, the role of treaties, legislation, jurisprudence, and administrative regulations. The discussion of the form and structure of government outlines its legal status, the jurisdiction and workings of the central state organs, the subdivisions of the state, its decentralized authorities, and concepts of citizenship. Special issues include the legal position of aliens, foreign relations, taxing and spending powers, emergency laws, the power of the military, and the constitutional relationship between church and state. Details are presented in such a way that readers who are unfamiliar with specific terms and concepts in varying contexts will fully grasp their meaning and significance. Its succinct yet scholarly nature, as well as the practical quality of the information it provides, make this book a valuable time-saving tool for both practising and academic jurists. Lawyers representing parties with interests in France will welcome this guide, and academics and researchers will appreciate its value in the study of comparative constitutional law.

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501

Publisher

Kluwer Law International B.V.

Published Date

ISBN 10

9403507357

ISBN 13

9789403507354

Lonely Planet Paris 2001

By: Julien Fouin

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Lonely Planet Paris 2001

By: Julien Fouin

This eating guide offers over 350 places to eat and drink to suit every budget. Each restaurant is rated for its vegetarian offerings, and there is information on the best bars to go to.

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372

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Lonely Planet

Published Date

ISBN 10

1740590813

ISBN 13

9781740590815

Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

By: Nicolas Mäder,Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

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Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

By: Nicolas Mäder,Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498324614

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9781498324618

IMF Lending in an Interconnected World

By: Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

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IMF Lending in an Interconnected World

By: Jean-Guillaume Poulain,Julien Reynaud

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484305868

ISBN 13

9781484305867

Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

By: Federico Diaz Kalan,Ms.Adina Popescu,Julien Reynaud

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Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

By: Federico Diaz Kalan,Ms.Adina Popescu,Julien Reynaud

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484351673

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9781484351673

How to Design Subnational Fiscal Rules

A Primer

By: Luc Eyraud,Andrew Hodge,Mr.John Ralyea,Julien Reynaud

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How to Design Subnational Fiscal Rules

A Primer

By: Luc Eyraud,Andrew Hodge,Mr.John Ralyea,Julien Reynaud

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513527037

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9781513527031

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

By: Francesca G Caselli,Julien Reynaud

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Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

By: Francesca G Caselli,Julien Reynaud

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498300863

ISBN 13

9781498300865

Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

By: Tannous Kass-Hanna,Julien Reynaud,Chris Walker

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Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia

By: Tannous Kass-Hanna,Julien Reynaud,Chris Walker

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400260285

Gauging Housing Supply in Canada

A Stock Approach

By: Julien Reynaud

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Gauging Housing Supply in Canada

A Stock Approach

By: Julien Reynaud

This paper estimates Canada's housing stock to gauge the supply-side component of the recent exuberance in the Canadian housing sector. The paper adds to the current related literature by focusing on housing units and reconstructing housing stock and households series. An error correction model is estimated at the provincial level over the period 1980-2013 to estimate a measure of housing stock desequilibrium. The model predicts an excess supply in the order of 1/2 percent above the housing stock level consistent with fundamentals as of 2013. --Abstract.

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ISBN 10

1513570714

ISBN 13

9781513570716

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