We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and labor market policies in developing countries. The basic framework considers a small open economy with a large informal production sector and a heterogeneous work force. The labor market is segmented as a result of efficiency considerations and minimum wage laws. The basic model is then extended to account for unemployment benefits, income taxation, and imperfect labor mobility across sectors. The analysis indicates, among other results, that a reduction in unemployement benefits has a positive effect on output of tradable goods by lowering both the level of efficiency wages and the relative rent captured by skilled workers.
When households face the possibility of borrowing constraints in bad times, favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade may lead to higher rates of private savings.
The paper characterizes the feasibility of economic transformation as requiring the simultaneous attainment of macroeconomic stability, political support, and adequate private investment. Macroeconomic stability is defined as fiscal balance; political feasibility is related to the income gains and losses of different population groups; and private investment is linked to public “infrastructure” investment. The analysis illustrates that attainment of the multiple requirements for successful transformation may necessitate a “big push” with external financial and technical assistance. It also emphasizes the importance of the productivity gains achieved when workers are induced to make occupational choices consistent with their comparative advantages.
This paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of aggregate shocks impinging on the domestic economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model with two types of credit market imperfections: domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers (whose demand for credit results from working capital needs) borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Higher volatility of producers’ productivity shocks increases both domestic and foreign financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital, resulting in lower employment and higher incidence of default. Welfare effects are nonlinearly related to the degree of international financial integration.
This paper examines the effect of skill-biased technological change on the structure of wages, the composition of employment and the level of unemployment in a two-sector economy with a heterogenous work force. Efficiency wage considerations and minimum wage legislation lead to labor market segmentation. A technological shock that reduces the demand for unskilled labor and raises the demand for skilled labor in the primary, high-wage sector is shown to increase the relative wage of skilled workers and reduce aggregate employment as well as the employment level of unskilled workers in that sector. The net effect of the shock on the employment level of skilled workers is mitigated by the existence of efficiency factors.
This paper compares the importance of precautionary and mercantilist motives in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. Overall, empirical results support precautionary motives; in particular, a more liberal capital account regime increases international reserves. Theoretically, large precautionary demand for international reserves arises as a self-insurance to avoid costly liquidation of long-term projects when the economy is susceptible to sudden stops. The welfare gain from the optimal management of international reserves is of a first-order magnitude, reducing the welfare cost of liquidity shocks from a first-order to a second-order magnitude.
Starting with Friedman and Mundell the academic literature has conducted a high level debate concerning the design of cross-country monetary arrangements. That debate has become very complex and the data requirements necessary for appropriate application of the principles developed are far beyond the means of the very nations for which the principles might be valuable. In this paper we return to the simplicity of the early arguments and formalize them in a way that may be helpful for currency area decisions where little is known about economic structure.
This two-volume work provides a comprehensive overview of the Belt and Road Initiative, examining its impact on economic growth, trade, financial systems and international relations. Weaving theory with real-world examples, Joshua makes an important contribution to the understanding of how the Global Economy is being shaped through these developments. In this second volume, Joshua focuses on the operation of the international monetary system and the effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on both China's domestic economy and the Global Economy. In addition, this volume addresses the consequences of economic growth on the environment and international relations.
Minority rights in the Middle East are subject to different legal regimes: national law and international law, as well as Islamic law. This book investigates the treatment of ethnic and religious minorities in the region both from a historical and contemporary perspective, before addressing three case studies: Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
This paper examines the problems in establishing currency convertibility- and the optimal timing- in formerly planned economies making the transition to market-oriented systems.
AlterNet editor Joshua Holland demolishes the Right's biggest and most outrageous myths about the economy Taxes kill growth. Labor unions hurt their members. Government regulation destroys jobs. These are just a few of the biggest lies in the web of misinformation spun by conservatives and the Chamber of Commerce. Holland's book dissects each malicious fiction to show how the Right is just plain wrong on the economy—wrong on jobs, wrong on the deficit, wrong on taxes, wrong on trade. Takes down old and new conservative myths about the economy, including healthcare, stimulus, progressive taxes, Wall Street regulation, and more Filled with recent quotes from conservative politicians and pundits, from the misleading to the laughable to the totally outrageous Tackles specific aspects of the Republicans' economic agenda, including their 2010 alternatives to Obama's budget Deftly written and rigorously documented by Alternet senior writer/editor Joshua Holland With the economy set to be the driving issue before and after the 2010 midterm elections, The Fifteen Biggest Lies about the Economy sets the record straight on every part of the conservatives' economic agenda.
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