With clarity, conscience, and courage, global-systems pioneer Jorgen Randers and his distinguished contributors map the forces that will shape the next four decades. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.
A pioneering work of science."—Business Insider "[This book] helped launch modern environmental computer modeling and began our current globally focused environmental debate . . . . a scientifically rigorous and credible warning."—The Nation In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update. Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet. Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes. In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste. Written in refreshingly accessible prose, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development.
The economic operating system keeps crashing. It’s time to upgrade to a new one. Five decades ago, The Limits to Growth shocked the world by showing that population and industrial growth were pushing humanity towards a cliff. Today the world recognizes that we are now at the cliff edge: Earth has crossed multiple planetary boundaries while widespread inequality is causing deep instabilities in societies. There seems to be no way out. Earth For All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation. Coverage includes: Results of new global modeling that indicates falling well-being and rising social tensions heighten risk of regional societal collapses Two alternative scenarios – Too-Little-Too-Late vs The Giant Leap – and what they mean for our collective future Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050 A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet. Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth For All is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future. This survival guide for humanity is required reading for everyone concerned about living well on a fragile planet. BOOK AWARDS FINALIST | 2022 Foreword INDIES - Ecology & Environment
With clarity, conscience, and courage, global-systems pioneer Jorgen Randers and his distinguished contributors map the forces that will shape the next four decades. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.
A pioneering work of science."—Business Insider "[This book] helped launch modern environmental computer modeling and began our current globally focused environmental debate . . . . a scientifically rigorous and credible warning."—The Nation In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update. Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet. Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes. In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste. Written in refreshingly accessible prose, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development.
“An important contribution to the global debate about growth, equality, climate change, and the path to a viable human future.” —David Korten, international bestselling author of When Corporations Rule the World The biggest challenges facing human wellbeing today—widening income inequality, continuing global poverty, and environmental degradation—may be simple to solve in theory. But, because we are required to come up with solutions that are acceptable to a political majority in the rich world, they are much harder to solve in practice. Most of the commonly proposed “solutions” are simply not acceptable to most people. Many of these proposed solutions—like stopping the use of fossil fuels—require a sacrifice today in order to obtain an uncertain advantage in the far future. Therefore they are politically infeasible in the modern world, which is marked by relatively short term thinking. In Reinventing Prosperity, Graeme Maxton and Jorgen Randers provide a new approach altogether through thirteen recommendations which are both politically acceptable and which can be implemented in the current period of slow economic growth around the world. Reinventing Prosperity solves the forty-year-old growth/no-growth standoff, by providing a solution to income inequality, continuing global poverty and climate change, a solution that will provide for economic growth but with a declining ecological footprint. Reinventing Prosperity shows us how to live better on our finite planet—and in ways we can agree on. “An essential guide to those who want to change the world for the better—and for certain.” —Ha-Joon Chang, international bestselling author of 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism “[A] well-argued book . . . explaining complex issues in a style that is clear, logical, and succinct.” —Publishers Weekly
The use of statistics is fundamental to many endeavors in biology and geology. For students and professionals in these fields, there is no better way to build a statistical background than to present the concepts and techniques in a context relevant to their interests. Statistics with Applications in Biology and Geology provides a practical introduction to using fundamental parametric statistical models frequently applied to data analysis in biology and geology. Based on material developed for an introductory statistics course and classroom tested for nearly 10 years, this treatment establishes a firm basis in models, the likelihood method, and numeracy. The models addressed include one sample, two samples, one- and two-way analysis of variance, and linear regression for normal data and similar models for binomial, multinomial, and Poisson data. Building on the familiarity developed with those models, the generalized linear models are introduced, making it possible for readers to handle fairly complicated models for both continuous and discrete data. Models for directional data are treated as well. The emphasis is on parametric models, but the book also includes a chapter on the most important nonparametric tests. This presentation incorporates the use of the SAS statistical software package, which authors use to illustrate all of the statistical tools described. However, to reinforce understanding of the basic concepts, calculations for the simplest models are also worked through by hand. SAS programs and the data used in the examples and exercises are available on the Internet.
A key aspect of town planning, landscape planning and landscape architecture is to identify and then use the distinctive features and characteristics of space, place and landscape to achieve environmental quality. Landscape Analysis provides an introduction to the field both in theory and in practice. A wide range of methods and techniques for landscape analysis is illustrated by urban and rural examples from many countries. Analysing landscapes within a planning context requires both skill and insights. Drawing upon numerous concrete examples, together with an examination of some theoretical concepts, this book guides the reader through a wide range of different approaches and techniques of landscape analysis that may be applied at different scales, from elementary site analysis to historical and regional studies. This is an essential book for students and graduate practitioners working in landscape architecture, planning and architecture.
“An important contribution to the global debate about growth, equality, climate change, and the path to a viable human future.” —David Korten, international bestselling author of When Corporations Rule the World The biggest challenges facing human wellbeing today—widening income inequality, continuing global poverty, and environmental degradation—may be simple to solve in theory. But, because we are required to come up with solutions that are acceptable to a political majority in the rich world, they are much harder to solve in practice. Most of the commonly proposed “solutions” are simply not acceptable to most people. Many of these proposed solutions—like stopping the use of fossil fuels—require a sacrifice today in order to obtain an uncertain advantage in the far future. Therefore they are politically infeasible in the modern world, which is marked by relatively short term thinking. In Reinventing Prosperity, Graeme Maxton and Jorgen Randers provide a new approach altogether through thirteen recommendations which are both politically acceptable and which can be implemented in the current period of slow economic growth around the world. Reinventing Prosperity solves the forty-year-old growth/no-growth standoff, by providing a solution to income inequality, continuing global poverty and climate change, a solution that will provide for economic growth but with a declining ecological footprint. Reinventing Prosperity shows us how to live better on our finite planet—and in ways we can agree on. “An essential guide to those who want to change the world for the better—and for certain.” —Ha-Joon Chang, international bestselling author of 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism “[A] well-argued book . . . explaining complex issues in a style that is clear, logical, and succinct.” —Publishers Weekly
The economic operating system keeps crashing. It’s time to upgrade to a new one. Five decades ago, The Limits to Growth shocked the world by showing that population and industrial growth were pushing humanity towards a cliff. Today the world recognizes that we are now at the cliff edge: Earth has crossed multiple planetary boundaries while widespread inequality is causing deep instabilities in societies. There seems to be no way out. Earth For All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation. Coverage includes: Results of new global modeling that indicates falling well-being and rising social tensions heighten risk of regional societal collapses Two alternative scenarios – Too-Little-Too-Late vs The Giant Leap – and what they mean for our collective future Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050 A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet. Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth For All is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future. This survival guide for humanity is required reading for everyone concerned about living well on a fragile planet. BOOK AWARDS FINALIST | 2022 Foreword INDIES - Ecology & Environment
Antidote au désespoir et feuille de route pour temps très incertains, "Earth for all" est le pendant du célèbre rapport Meadows, "les Limites de la croissance", commandé par le Club de Rome en 1972. Cinquante ans après, toujours sous l'égide du Club de Rome, un groupe de scientifiques et d'économistes de premier plan propose deux scénarios et cinq changements de cap radicaux pour parvenir, en une seule génération, à un état de prospérité partagée sur la Terre.
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